Roberto Caro
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | AA/A+/A2 orgs | 305 | .239/.355/.343 | 1 | 20 | 55 | — | .205/.291/.293 |
| 2018 | 24 | A+/ACHC | 321 | .317/.422/.438 | 2 | 36 | 89 | — | .259/.333/.355 |
| 2019 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 465 | .235/.346/.307 | 2 | 32 | 44 | — | .192/.264/.252 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 232 | 191 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 314 | 418 | 403 | 821 | 89 | 370 | 12 | 14 | 363 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs | — | 242 | 197 | 50 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 33 | 49 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 254 | 380 | 376 | 755 | 122 | 336 | 20 | 14 | 339 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cubs | — | 310 | 246 | 71 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 48 | 47 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 289 | 421 | 472 | 892 | 183 | 342 | 15 | 15 | 387 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 119 | 98 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 354 | 347 | 701 | 92 | 325 | 18 | 12 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 208 | 182 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 231 | 307 | 286 | 593 | 55 | 344 | 30 | 9 | 268 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 41 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 268 | 171 | 440 | 29 | 179 | 17 | 12 | 223 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 110 | 92 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 185 | 306 | 283 | 588 | 98 | 254 | 26 | 12 | 273 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 154 | 124 | 38 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 33 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 306 | 415 | 435 | 850 | 129 | 409 | 21 | 14 | 366 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 167 | 137 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 32 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 263 | 384 | 328 | 713 | 66 | 337 | 19 | 15 | 329 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 154 | 128 | 48 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 375 | 463 | 555 | 1.018 | 180 | 480 | 19 | 12 | 433 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 446 | 376 | 90 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 99 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 239 | 349 | 314 | 662 | 74 | 315 | 22 | 13 | 305 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 19 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 133 | 278 | 133 | 411 | 182 | 21 | 16 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 232 | 201 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 214 | 298 | 269 | 566 | 55 | 247 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 242 | 207 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 60 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 164 | 270 | 237 | 507 | 72 | 220 | 25 | 10 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 310 | 262 | 49 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 32 | 57 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 187 | 295 | 290 | 585 | 103 | 218 | 18 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 119 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 192 | 257 | 250 | 507 | 58 | 265 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 208 | 187 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 87 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 187 | 248 | 235 | 483 | 48 | 316 | 42 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 41 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 139 | 244 | 167 | 411 | 28 | 164 | 22 | 10 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 110 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 146 | 241 | 219 | 459 | 73 | 229 | 38 | 8 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 154 | 132 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 44 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 265 | 340 | 379 | 719 | 114 | 350 | 29 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 167 | 147 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 2 | 19 | 4 | 204 | 287 | 259 | 545 | 54 | 285 | 28 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 154 | 135 | 43 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 319 | 383 | 459 | 842 | 141 | 422 | 27 | 7 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 446 | 400 | 77 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 124 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 193 | 264 | 253 | 517 | 60 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 232 | 201 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 214 | 298 | 269 | 566 | 55 | 259 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 232 | 191 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 32 | 29 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 314 | 418 | 403 | 821 | 89 | 370 | 12 | 14 | 363 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 242 | 207 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 60 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 164 | 270 | 237 | 507 | 72 | 230 | 25 | 10 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs | — | 242 | 197 | 50 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 33 | 49 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 254 | 380 | 376 | 755 | 122 | 336 | 20 | 14 | 339 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 310 | 262 | 49 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 32 | 57 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 187 | 295 | 290 | 585 | 103 | 232 | 18 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs | — | 310 | 246 | 71 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 48 | 47 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 289 | 421 | 472 | 892 | 183 | 342 | 15 | 15 | 387 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 119 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 192 | 257 | 250 | 507 | 58 | 274 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 119 | 98 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 255 | 354 | 347 | 701 | 92 | 325 | 18 | 12 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 208 | 187 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 87 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 187 | 248 | 235 | 483 | 48 | 343 | 42 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 208 | 182 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 62 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 231 | 307 | 286 | 593 | 55 | 344 | 30 | 9 | 268 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 305 | 264 | 52 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 95 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 197 | 284 | 280 | 564 | 83 | 298 | 31 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 305 | 251 | 60 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 39 | 69 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 239 | 355 | 343 | 697 | 104 | 321 | 23 | 13 | 313 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 282 | 73 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 87 | 5 | 36 | 10 | 259 | 332 | 355 | 687 | 96 | 366 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 265 | 84 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 43 | 62 | 5 | 36 | 10 | 317 | 422 | 438 | 859 | 121 | 406 | 19 | 13 | 379 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 416 | 79 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 130 | 3 | 32 | 14 | 190 | 263 | 248 | 510 | 58 | 270 | 28 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 465 | 391 | 92 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 63 | 103 | 3 | 32 | 14 | 235 | 346 | 307 | 653 | 72 | 310 | 22 | 14 | 301 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs 1 | — | 232 | 206 | 43 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 209 | 298 | 262 | 560 | 53 | 247 | 15 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 242 | 210 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 | 60 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 162 | 270 | 233 | 503 | 71 | 220 | 25 | 10 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs | — | 310 | 267 | 49 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 32 | 57 | 8 | 35 | 7 | 184 | 295 | 285 | 579 | 101 | 218 | 18 | 10 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 119 | 109 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 257 | 239 | 495 | 55 | 265 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 208 | 191 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 87 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 183 | 248 | 230 | 478 | 47 | 316 | 42 | 6 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 305 | 270 | 52 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 95 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 193 | 284 | 274 | 558 | 81 | 281 | 31 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 73 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 26 | 87 | 5 | 36 | 10 | 254 | 332 | 348 | 681 | 94 | 351 | 27 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 421 | 79 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 130 | 3 | 32 | 14 | 188 | 263 | 245 | 507 | 57 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2202 | 1923 | 385 | 48 | 39 | 5 | 188 | 583 | 34 | 168 | 59 | 200 | 283 | 274 | 557 | 73 | 281 | 26 | 9 | 247 | 54 | -122 | +10 | +0 | +8 | +48 | -5.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 568 | 113 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 55 | 172 | 10 | 50 | 17 | 199 | 281 | 271 | 552 | 72 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 247 | 54 | -36 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AATennessee Smokies · 446 PAwOBA .297 → .234 (−63)K% 22.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.20% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.56% | ÷1.047 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.957 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.142 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.50% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .297 → .234; ISO .074 → .063; BABIP .315 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 167 PAwOBA .321 → .247 (−75)K% 19.2% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.16% | ÷0.987 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.97% | ÷1.032 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.62% | ÷1.078 | ×0.940 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 23.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 5.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.933 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 116, 2B 83, 3B 85, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .321 → .247; ISO .066 → .059; BABIP .337 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 154 PAwOBA .421 → .359 (−62)K% 19.5% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.48% | ÷1.005 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.39% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.67% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.970 | 30.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.970 | 6.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.970 | 5.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.881 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .421 → .359; ISO .180 → .153; BABIP .480 → .422. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ASouth Bend Cubs · 154 PAwOBA .360 → .299 (−61)K% 21.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.99% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.67% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 25.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×0.980 | 4.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.869 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .360 → .299; ISO .129 → .113; BABIP .409 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 110 PAwOBA .269 → .206 (−63)K% 26.4% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.36% | ÷0.969 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷0.922 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.019 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 17.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 2.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 97, K 94, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .269 → .206; ISO .098 → .076; BABIP .254 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATennessee Smokies · 41 PAwOBA .218 → .181 (−37)K% 17.1% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.07% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.976 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 13.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 3.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .218 → .181; ISO .029 → .026; BABIP .179 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ASouth Bend Cubs · 208 PAwOBA .264 → .210 (−54)K% 29.8% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.81% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 41.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.65% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 26.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 2.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×0.990 | 2.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .264 → .210; ISO .055 → .046; BABIP .344 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Cubs · 119 PAwOBA .301 → .230 (−71)K% 18.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 20.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.975 | 2.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .301 → .230; ISO .092 → .070; BABIP .325 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .