Rafael P Valera
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | AMIN | 256 | .283/.378/.338 | 0 | 2 | 69 | — | .243/.315/.287 |
| 2016 | 21 | AMIN | 134 | .261/.366/.409 | 0 | 0 | 68 | — | .217/.299/.342 |
| 2017 | 22 | A+Fort Myers Mi… | 159 | .212/.303/.314 | 1 | 1 | 32 | — | .176/.245/.254 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 158 | 131 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 244 | 365 | 282 | 648 | 38 | 311 | 18 | 14 | 306 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 225 | 171 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 257 | 423 | 310 | 733 | 53 | 301 | 12 | 19 | 345 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | — | 166 | 138 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 254 | 372 | 341 | 713 | 87 | 287 | 10 | 13 | 328 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 256 | 219 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 283 | 378 | 338 | 716 | 55 | 371 | 21 | 12 | 330 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 134 | 115 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 261 | 366 | 409 | 774 | 148 | 353 | 22 | 13 | 349 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 159 | 137 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 212 | 303 | 314 | 617 | 102 | 280 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 158 | 138 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 167 | 263 | 196 | 458 | 29 | 209 | 22 | 9 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 225 | 184 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 168 | 305 | 196 | 500 | 27 | 196 | 15 | 13 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 166 | 147 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 190 | 274 | 245 | 519 | 54 | 226 | 14 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 256 | 230 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 75 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 243 | 315 | 287 | 602 | 43 | 351 | 29 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 134 | 120 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 217 | 299 | 342 | 640 | 125 | 313 | 31 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 159 | 142 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 176 | 245 | 254 | 499 | 77 | 260 | 36 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 158 | 138 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 167 | 263 | 196 | 458 | 29 | 221 | 22 | 9 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 158 | 131 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 244 | 365 | 282 | 648 | 38 | 311 | 18 | 14 | 306 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 225 | 184 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 168 | 305 | 196 | 500 | 27 | 203 | 15 | 13 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 225 | 171 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 257 | 423 | 310 | 733 | 53 | 301 | 12 | 19 | 345 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 166 | 147 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 190 | 274 | 245 | 519 | 54 | 226 | 14 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Twins | — | 166 | 138 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 254 | 372 | 341 | 713 | 87 | 287 | 10 | 13 | 328 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 256 | 230 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 75 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 243 | 315 | 287 | 602 | 43 | 359 | 29 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 256 | 219 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 283 | 378 | 338 | 716 | 55 | 371 | 21 | 12 | 330 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 134 | 120 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 217 | 299 | 342 | 640 | 125 | 329 | 31 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 134 | 115 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 261 | 366 | 409 | 774 | 148 | 353 | 22 | 13 | 349 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 159 | 142 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 176 | 245 | 254 | 499 | 77 | 279 | 36 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 159 | 137 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 212 | 303 | 314 | 617 | 102 | 280 | 24 | 9 | 277 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 158 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 165 | 263 | 194 | 457 | 29 | 209 | 22 | 9 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 225 | 187 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 34 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 166 | 305 | 193 | 497 | 27 | 196 | 15 | 13 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Twins | — | 166 | 148 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 189 | 274 | 243 | 518 | 54 | 226 | 14 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 256 | 230 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 75 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 243 | 315 | 287 | 602 | 43 | 351 | 29 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 134 | 119 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 218 | 299 | 345 | 643 | 126 | 313 | 31 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 159 | 145 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 172 | 245 | 248 | 493 | 76 | 260 | 36 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1098 | 961 | 189 | 28 | 11 | 1 | 98 | 266 | 24 | 43 | 25 | 197 | 287 | 252 | 539 | 55 | 268 | 24 | 9 | 243 | 50 | -65 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +24 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 113 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 58 | 157 | 14 | 25 | 15 | 199 | 289 | 258 | 547 | 60 | 269 | 24 | 9 | 243 | 50 | -38 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 159 PAwOBA .274 → .215 (−59)K% 23.9% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.90% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.81% | ÷1.209 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.52% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.178 | ×0.960 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 2.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×0.998 | 2.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.942 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 136, 3B 130, K 89, BB 142 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .274 → .215; ISO .102 → .074; BABIP .280 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 134 PAwOBA .340 → .269 (−71)K% 22.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.39% | ÷0.996 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.69% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | — | 18.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.59% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | — | 8.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | — | 4.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.232 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 100, 2B 111, 3B 90, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .340 → .269; ISO .148 → .121; BABIP .353 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 256 PAwOBA .322 → .270 (−51)K% 20.7% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.70% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.72% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.72% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 29.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.046 | ×1.015 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.134 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .322 → .270; ISO .055 → .045; BABIP .371 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Twins · 166 PAwOBA .320 → .241 (−79)K% 10.2% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.01% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 16.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.000 | ×0.995 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .320 → .241; ISO .087 → .065; BABIP .287 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 DSLDSL Twins · 225 PAwOBA .342 → .240 (−102)K% 12.4% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 13.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.11% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 17.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 2.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .342 → .240; ISO .053 → .034; BABIP .301 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 DSLDSL Twins · 158 PAwOBA .301 → .209 (−92)K% 18.4% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 18.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 1.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.996 | ×1.008 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .301 → .209; ISO .038 → .024; BABIP .311 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).