Randy César
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | A+/A2 orgs | 454 | .297/.353/.403 | 7 | 4 | 65 | — | .238/.280/.313 |
| 2018 | 23 | AAHOU | 485 | .296/.350/.428 | 10 | 3 | 79 | — | .253/.292/.352 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 309 | .238/.322/.377 | 6 | 0 | 52 | — | .206/.273/.306 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros | — | 234 | 202 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 309 | 257 | 566 | 45 | 255 | 16 | 10 | 265 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros | — | 254 | 221 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 235 | 332 | 299 | 631 | 63 | 293 | 19 | 11 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 194 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 273 | 312 | 381 | 694 | 108 | 333 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 182 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 329 | 346 | 675 | 110 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 308 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 154 | 146 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 237 | 295 | 531 | 89 | 278 | 31 | 4 | 236 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 337 | 308 | 91 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 79 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 295 | 348 | 383 | 731 | 88 | 380 | 23 | 7 | 327 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 117 | 106 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 368 | 462 | 830 | 160 | 392 | 25 | 9 | 369 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 485 | 446 | 132 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 112 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 296 | 350 | 428 | 778 | 132 | 374 | 23 | 7 | 346 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 221 | 196 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 357 | 434 | 791 | 158 | 398 | 31 | 10 | 354 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 28 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 130 | 286 | 130 | 416 | 231 | 36 | 18 | 222 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 60 | 54 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 148 | 207 | 278 | 485 | 130 | 179 | 27 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 234 | 209 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 222 | 163 | 384 | 19 | 179 | 19 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 254 | 231 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 147 | 221 | 177 | 399 | 30 | 191 | 22 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 198 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 229 | 273 | 502 | 71 | 279 | 29 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 190 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 237 | 242 | 479 | 74 | 246 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 154 | 148 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 178 | 216 | 394 | 61 | 248 | 42 | 3 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 337 | 316 | 75 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 118 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 276 | 301 | 577 | 63 | 356 | 35 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 117 | 109 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 291 | 349 | 639 | 110 | 345 | 32 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 485 | 458 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 137 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 253 | 292 | 352 | 643 | 98 | 344 | 28 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 221 | 203 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 82 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 281 | 330 | 611 | 113 | 337 | 37 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 28 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 120 | 214 | 120 | 334 | 222 | 43 | 11 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 234 | 209 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 144 | 222 | 163 | 384 | 19 | 182 | 19 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros | — | 234 | 202 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 309 | 257 | 566 | 45 | 255 | 16 | 10 | 265 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 254 | 231 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 147 | 221 | 177 | 399 | 30 | 194 | 22 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Astros | — | 254 | 221 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 235 | 332 | 299 | 631 | 63 | 293 | 19 | 11 | 294 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 198 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 229 | 273 | 502 | 71 | 277 | 29 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 194 | 53 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 273 | 312 | 381 | 694 | 108 | 333 | 21 | 5 | 307 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 190 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 237 | 242 | 479 | 74 | 246 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 182 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 329 | 346 | 675 | 110 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 308 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 154 | 148 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 178 | 216 | 394 | 61 | 256 | 42 | 3 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 154 | 146 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 237 | 295 | 531 | 89 | 278 | 31 | 4 | 236 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 425 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 155 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 240 | 282 | 318 | 600 | 78 | 361 | 34 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 454 | 414 | 123 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 108 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 297 | 353 | 403 | 757 | 106 | 383 | 24 | 7 | 338 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 485 | 458 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 137 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 253 | 292 | 352 | 643 | 98 | 345 | 28 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 485 | 446 | 132 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 112 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 296 | 350 | 428 | 778 | 132 | 374 | 23 | 7 | 346 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 309 | 281 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 203 | 270 | 295 | 566 | 93 | 325 | 38 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 309 | 273 | 65 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 94 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 238 | 322 | 377 | 700 | 139 | 337 | 30 | 10 | 315 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 234 | 211 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 142 | 222 | 161 | 383 | 19 | 179 | 19 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Astros | — | 254 | 230 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 148 | 221 | 178 | 400 | 30 | 191 | 22 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 199 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 201 | 229 | 271 | 501 | 70 | 279 | 29 | 3 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | Greeneville Astros | — | 208 | 189 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 237 | 243 | 480 | 74 | 246 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 154 | 149 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 178 | 215 | 392 | 60 | 248 | 42 | 3 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 454 | 426 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 155 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 239 | 282 | 317 | 599 | 77 | 353 | 34 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 485 | 457 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 137 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 254 | 292 | 352 | 644 | 98 | 344 | 28 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 309 | 280 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 204 | 270 | 296 | 567 | 93 | 324 | 38 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2306 | 2140 | 434 | 73 | 5 | 23 | 130 | 706 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 203 | 254 | 274 | 528 | 71 | 288 | 31 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -146 | -3 | +0 | +8 | +50 | -9.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 122 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 199 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 202 | 254 | 270 | 525 | 68 | 289 | 31 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -41 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 221 PAwOBA .345 → .265 (−80)K% 30.8% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.41% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.56% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 24.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.94% | ÷1.200 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.058 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.91% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.95% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 105, 2B 140, 3B 112, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .345 → .265; ISO .158 → .111; BABIP .398 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 28 PAwOBA .217 → .171 (−46)K% 35.7% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷1.027 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 11.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .217 → .171; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 485 PAwOBA .338 → .285 (−53)K% 23.1% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.09% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.22% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.21% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.44% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 26.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.49% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.028 | ×1.027 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .338 → .285; ISO .132 → .105; BABIP .374 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Buies Creek Astros · 337 PAwOBA .323 → .259 (−64)K% 23.4% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.44% | ÷0.954 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.53% | ÷0.981 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.44% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 30.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.55% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .323 → .259; ISO .088 → .068; BABIP .380 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 117 PAwOBA .359 → .281 (−78)K% 24.8% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.79% | ÷1.057 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.40% | ÷0.982 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | — | 24.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.39% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | — | 8.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷1.154 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .359 → .281; ISO .160 → .116; BABIP .392 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 154 PAwOBA .231 → .174 (−57)K% 30.5% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.52% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.24% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 22.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.185 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 1.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.70% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 104, 2B 137, 3B 101, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .231 → .174; ISO .089 → .066; BABIP .278 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGreeneville Astros · 208 PAwOBA .302 → .218 (−84)K% 23.6% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×0.995 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.012 | ×0.995 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.012 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 2.39% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .302 → .218; ISO .110 → .078; BABIP .300 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGreeneville Astros · 208 PAwOBA .301 → .227 (−74)K% 20.7% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×1.008 | 3.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×1.008 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.008 | 1.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .301 → .227; ISO .108 → .078; BABIP .333 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .