Malquin Canelo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 565 | .251/.309/.359 | 9 | 29 | 59 | — | .228/.269/.311 |
| 2019 | 24 | AAAPHI | 473 | .262/.322/.350 | 2 | 8 | 49 | — | .219/.265/.291 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 133 | .228/.286/.382 | 4 | 2 | 36 | — | .181/.218/.276 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies | — | 189 | 162 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 167 | 254 | 222 | 476 | 56 | 237 | 26 | 8 | 218 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 235 | 294 | 529 | 59 | 250 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 53 | 48 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 269 | 271 | 540 | 62 | 278 | 23 | 6 | 246 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 167 | 152 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 270 | 323 | 355 | 678 | 86 | 328 | 19 | 7 | 302 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 272 | 248 | 62 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 53 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 250 | 301 | 323 | 623 | 73 | 301 | 19 | 6 | 278 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 287 | 264 | 82 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 39 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 311 | 364 | 466 | 830 | 155 | 350 | 14 | 7 | 367 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 44 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 233 | 405 | 637 | 190 | 281 | 23 | 2 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 494 | 451 | 111 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 246 | 298 | 330 | 628 | 84 | 299 | 19 | 6 | 279 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 436 | 389 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 113 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 226 | 303 | 339 | 643 | 113 | 300 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 517 | 470 | 118 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 110 | 2 | 24 | 5 | 251 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 115 | 306 | 21 | 7 | 299 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 48 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 319 | 279 | 598 | 23 | 379 | 29 | 8 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 473 | 423 | 111 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 137 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 262 | 322 | 350 | 672 | 87 | 380 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 24 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 292 | 364 | 655 | 136 | 357 | 33 | 8 | 294 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 109 | 101 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 284 | 386 | 671 | 158 | 292 | 29 | 7 | 299 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 189 | 166 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 108 | 182 | 139 | 321 | 30 | 158 | 32 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 176 | 235 | 412 | 59 | 200 | 6 | 0 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 53 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 184 | 231 | 245 | 476 | 61 | 278 | 32 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 167 | 155 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 287 | 323 | 609 | 77 | 308 | 25 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 272 | 251 | 53 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 80 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 211 | 256 | 267 | 523 | 56 | 285 | 29 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 287 | 272 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 53 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 272 | 308 | 412 | 719 | 140 | 320 | 18 | 5 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 494 | 458 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 137 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 210 | 252 | 279 | 532 | 70 | 278 | 28 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 436 | 402 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 136 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 201 | 257 | 289 | 546 | 87 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 517 | 482 | 110 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 132 | 2 | 24 | 5 | 228 | 269 | 311 | 580 | 83 | 290 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 473 | 433 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 165 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 219 | 265 | 291 | 556 | 72 | 327 | 35 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 24 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 174 | 208 | 261 | 469 | 87 | 319 | 42 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 109 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 183 | 220 | 279 | 499 | 96 | 272 | 37 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 189 | 166 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 108 | 182 | 139 | 321 | 30 | 168 | 32 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies | — | 189 | 162 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 50 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 167 | 254 | 222 | 476 | 56 | 237 | 26 | 8 | 218 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 176 | 235 | 412 | 59 | 188 | 6 | 0 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 235 | 235 | 294 | 529 | 59 | 250 | 6 | 0 | 235 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 204 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 57 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 273 | 304 | 577 | 74 | 311 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 220 | 200 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 255 | 310 | 335 | 645 | 80 | 316 | 20 | 6 | 288 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 603 | 564 | 136 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 143 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 241 | 281 | 337 | 618 | 96 | 309 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 603 | 554 | 153 | 31 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 102 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 276 | 326 | 397 | 723 | 121 | 324 | 17 | 6 | 319 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 494 | 458 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 137 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 210 | 252 | 279 | 532 | 70 | 287 | 28 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 494 | 451 | 111 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 95 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 246 | 298 | 330 | 628 | 84 | 299 | 19 | 6 | 279 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 436 | 402 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 136 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 201 | 257 | 289 | 546 | 87 | 291 | 31 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 436 | 389 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 113 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 226 | 303 | 339 | 643 | 113 | 300 | 26 | 10 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 526 | 120 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 145 | 2 | 29 | 6 | 228 | 270 | 312 | 582 | 84 | 298 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 565 | 513 | 129 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 124 | 2 | 29 | 6 | 251 | 309 | 359 | 668 | 107 | 312 | 22 | 7 | 297 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 473 | 433 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 165 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 219 | 265 | 291 | 556 | 72 | 346 | 35 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 473 | 423 | 111 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 137 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 262 | 322 | 350 | 672 | 87 | 380 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 127 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 181 | 218 | 276 | 494 | 94 | 276 | 37 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 133 | 123 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 228 | 286 | 382 | 668 | 154 | 304 | 30 | 8 | 298 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies | — | 189 | 172 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 61 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 105 | 182 | 134 | 316 | 29 | 158 | 32 | 6 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 176 | 235 | 412 | 59 | 200 | 6 | 0 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 206 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 57 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 228 | 273 | 301 | 574 | 73 | 301 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 603 | 567 | 136 | 27 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 143 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 240 | 281 | 335 | 616 | 95 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 494 | 465 | 96 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 137 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 206 | 252 | 275 | 527 | 69 | 278 | 28 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 436 | 403 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 136 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 201 | 257 | 288 | 545 | 87 | 284 | 31 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 530 | 120 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 145 | 2 | 29 | 6 | 226 | 270 | 309 | 579 | 83 | 290 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 473 | 443 | 95 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 165 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 214 | 265 | 284 | 550 | 70 | 327 | 35 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 126 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 183 | 218 | 278 | 496 | 95 | 280 | 37 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3130 | 2897 | 619 | 113 | 19 | 26 | 157 | 894 | 20 | 96 | 48 | 214 | 259 | 293 | 552 | 79 | 296 | 29 | 5 | 242 | 50 | -187 | +0 | +0 | +34 | +68 | -8.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 128 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 186 | 4 | 20 | 10 | 213 | 258 | 289 | 547 | 76 | 296 | 29 | 5 | 242 | 50 | -39 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AABowie Baysox · 109 PAwOBA .291 → .221 (−69)K% 29.4% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.36% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.34% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×0.978 | 22.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×1.021 | ×0.978 | 2.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.978 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.51% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .291 → .221; ISO .158 → .102; BABIP .292 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 24 PAwOBA .286 → .225 (−62)K% 33.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 13.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 18.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .286 → .225; ISO .136 → .107; BABIP .357 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 473 PAwOBA .289 → .241 (−47)K% 29.0% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.96% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.97% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 24.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.44% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.061 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.866 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 112, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .289 → .241; ISO .087 → .072; BABIP .380 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAReading Fightin Phils · 517 PAwOBA .292 → .254 (−39)K% 21.3% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.28% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷0.964 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 24.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.101 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.164 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .292 → .254; ISO .115 → .084; BABIP .306 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 436 PAwOBA .285 → .240 (−45)K% 25.9% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.92% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.01% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.97% | ÷0.986 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.063 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×1.027 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.220 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.43% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 113, K 102, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .285 → .240; ISO .113 → .088; BABIP .300 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Clearwater Threshers · 494 PAwOBA .275 → .235 (−40)K% 19.2% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.07% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.16% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 22.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.49% | ÷0.947 | ×0.960 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.986 | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.964 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .275 → .235; ISO .084 → .075; BABIP .299 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ALakewood BlueClaws · 287 PAwOBA .356 → .307 (−49)K% 13.6% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.59% | ÷0.989 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.97% | ÷1.027 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 21.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.78% | ÷0.959 | ×0.820 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 8.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.043 | ×0.940 | ×1.014 | ×1.015 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.872 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 92, 3B 109, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .356 → .307; ISO .155 → .139; BABIP .350 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Clearwater Threshers · 272 PAwOBA .275 → .234 (−41)K% 19.5% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.49% | ÷0.940 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.918 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.15% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×1.027 | 24.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.950 | ×0.960 | ×0.969 | ×1.027 | 3.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×0.969 | ×1.027 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 93, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 88, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .275 → .234; ISO .073 → .058; BABIP .301 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .