Rafael Bautista
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 121 | .303/.345/.376 | 1 | 6 | 78 | — | .289/.321/.362 |
| 2019 | 26 | AA/A/INTL3 orgs | 139 | .210/.314/.227 | 0 | 9 | 46 | — | .141/.214/.156 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAAWSH | 255 | .238/.292/.345 | 5 | 3 | 43 | — | .205/.249/.289 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 210 | 69 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 39 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 329 | 424 | 395 | 820 | 67 | 397 | 15 | 11 | 363 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 235 | 202 | 65 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 34 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 322 | 402 | 391 | 793 | 69 | 381 | 14 | 8 | 354 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 543 | 487 | 141 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 72 | 8 | 69 | 15 | 290 | 345 | 382 | 727 | 92 | 328 | 13 | 6 | 320 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 226 | 206 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 272 | 321 | 325 | 647 | 53 | 301 | 10 | 5 | 289 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 16 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 312 | 500 | 812 | 188 | 286 | 6 | 0 | 356 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 116 | 104 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 279 | 348 | 346 | 694 | 67 | 330 | 14 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 607 | 543 | 153 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 94 | 8 | 56 | 10 | 282 | 346 | 341 | 686 | 59 | 333 | 15 | 7 | 309 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 121 | 112 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 250 | 294 | 286 | 580 | 36 | 304 | 17 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 160 | 382 | 200 | 19 | 7 | 186 | 12 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 188 | 176 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 250 | 290 | 312 | 603 | 62 | 293 | 14 | 5 | 271 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 52 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 295 | 404 | 386 | 790 | 91 | 333 | 10 | 10 | 364 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 78 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 174 | 250 | 203 | 453 | 29 | 218 | 18 | 9 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 91 | 82 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 366 | 395 | 463 | 859 | 98 | 500 | 25 | 4 | 362 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 30 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 136 | 17 | 10 | 160 | -26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 40 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 179 | 18 | 10 | 201 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 30 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 185 | 267 | 222 | 489 | 37 | 208 | 10 | 10 | 233 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 69 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 373 | 281 | 654 | 18 | 300 | 12 | 14 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 255 | 235 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 292 | 345 | 637 | 106 | 277 | 18 | 5 | 287 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 160 | 382 | 200 | 19 | 7 | 186 | 12 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 218 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 229 | 314 | 271 | 585 | 41 | 269 | 19 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 235 | 209 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 328 | 321 | 648 | 57 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 543 | 498 | 132 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 8 | 69 | 15 | 265 | 307 | 339 | 646 | 74 | 310 | 18 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 226 | 210 | 53 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 252 | 290 | 300 | 590 | 48 | 282 | 14 | 3 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 16 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 250 | 438 | 688 | 188 | 225 | 6 | 0 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 607 | 555 | 153 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 117 | 8 | 56 | 10 | 276 | 326 | 323 | 648 | 47 | 333 | 19 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 160 | 382 | 200 | 19 | 7 | 186 | 12 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 188 | 179 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 246 | 274 | 302 | 576 | 56 | 289 | 16 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 52 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 308 | 283 | 590 | 65 | 254 | 13 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 91 | 83 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 349 | 372 | 446 | 818 | 96 | 467 | 29 | 3 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 30 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 107 | 167 | 107 | 274 | 130 | 20 | 7 | 130 | -26 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 40 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 225 | 139 | 364 | 173 | 22 | 8 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 30 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 179 | 379 | 36 | 173 | 13 | 7 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 255 | 239 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 249 | 289 | 538 | 84 | 247 | 23 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 218 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 229 | 314 | 271 | 585 | 41 | 287 | 19 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 210 | 69 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 39 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 329 | 424 | 395 | 820 | 67 | 397 | 15 | 11 | 363 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 235 | 209 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 328 | 321 | 648 | 57 | 338 | 21 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 235 | 202 | 65 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 34 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 322 | 402 | 391 | 793 | 69 | 381 | 14 | 8 | 354 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 543 | 498 | 132 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 8 | 69 | 15 | 265 | 307 | 339 | 646 | 74 | 320 | 18 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 543 | 487 | 141 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 72 | 8 | 69 | 15 | 290 | 345 | 382 | 727 | 92 | 328 | 13 | 6 | 320 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 358 | 338 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 4 | 31 | 8 | 249 | 278 | 302 | 580 | 53 | 285 | 13 | 3 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 358 | 326 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 39 | 4 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 330 | 340 | 670 | 64 | 309 | 11 | 6 | 301 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 728 | 668 | 183 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 141 | 8 | 68 | 12 | 274 | 322 | 320 | 642 | 46 | 341 | 19 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 728 | 655 | 181 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 115 | 8 | 68 | 12 | 276 | 337 | 331 | 668 | 55 | 328 | 16 | 7 | 302 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 345 | 322 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 230 | 273 | 280 | 552 | 50 | 278 | 16 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 345 | 314 | 73 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 50 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 232 | 293 | 287 | 580 | 54 | 277 | 14 | 7 | 265 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 111 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 288 | 319 | 360 | 679 | 72 | 403 | 27 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 121 | 109 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 303 | 345 | 376 | 721 | 73 | 400 | 23 | 6 | 312 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 139 | 127 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 134 | 197 | 142 | 339 | 8 | 167 | 19 | 6 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 139 | 119 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 210 | 314 | 227 | 541 | 17 | 245 | 13 | 12 | 259 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 255 | 239 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 249 | 289 | 538 | 84 | 253 | 23 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 255 | 235 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 292 | 345 | 637 | 106 | 277 | 18 | 5 | 287 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 225 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 47 | 8 | 47 | 7 | 222 | 314 | 262 | 577 | 40 | 269 | 19 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 235 | 213 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 9 | 26 | 7 | 258 | 328 | 315 | 642 | 56 | 320 | 21 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 543 | 508 | 132 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 99 | 8 | 69 | 15 | 260 | 307 | 333 | 639 | 73 | 310 | 18 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 358 | 341 | 84 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 48 | 4 | 31 | 8 | 246 | 278 | 299 | 578 | 53 | 278 | 13 | 3 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 728 | 675 | 183 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 141 | 8 | 68 | 12 | 271 | 322 | 317 | 639 | 46 | 333 | 19 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 345 | 323 | 74 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 229 | 273 | 279 | 551 | 50 | 273 | 16 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 115 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 278 | 319 | 348 | 667 | 70 | 383 | 27 | 4 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 139 | 128 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 133 | 197 | 141 | 338 | 8 | 173 | 19 | 6 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 255 | 239 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 249 | 289 | 538 | 84 | 247 | 23 | 3 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 222 | 160 | 382 | 200 | 19 | 7 | 186 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 222 | 159 | 381 | 199 | 18 | 7 | 186 | 64 | -68 | +0 | -2 | -89 | +14 | -14.8 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2978 | 2730 | 676 | 74 | 18 | 14 | 138 | 557 | 48 | 274 | 58 | 248 | 296 | 303 | 599 | 56 | 304 | 19 | 5 | 262 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 147 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 122 | 10 | 60 | 13 | 247 | 294 | 302 | 596 | 55 | 303 | 19 | 5 | 262 | 64 | -68 | +0 | -2 | -89 | +14 | -14.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 255 PAwOBA .280 → .232 (−48)K% 18.4% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.43% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.71% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.81% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 20.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.66% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.91% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .280 → .232; ISO .106 → .078; BABIP .277 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 40 PAwOBA .197 → .167 (−30)K% 17.5% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 17.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .197 → .167; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .179 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AHagerstown Suns · 30 PAwOBA .228 → .174 (−54)K% 10.0% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.940 | ×1.340 | — | — | 14.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.960 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 14.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.063 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.960 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 100, K 88, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .174; ISO .037 → .027; BABIP .208 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 91 PAwOBA .352 → .334 (−18)K% 25.3% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.27% | ÷1.044 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.40% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.37% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 39.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 4.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 1.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.205 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .352 → .334; ISO .098 → .092; BABIP .500 → .467. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 30 PAwOBA .157 → .130 (−27)K% 16.7% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 12.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .157 → .130; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .136 → .130. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 188 PAwOBA .264 → .248 (−16)K% 13.8% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.83% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.79% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 23.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .264 → .248; ISO .062 → .054; BABIP .293 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Nationals · 52 PAwOBA .355 → .258 (−97)K% 9.6% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 5.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.77% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 3.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .355 → .258; ISO .091 → .064; BABIP .333 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 607 PAwOBA .303 → .284 (−20)K% 15.5% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.49% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.62% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 29.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .303 → .284; ISO .059 → .048; BABIP .333 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .