Osvaldo Abreu
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AAWSH | 403 | .183/.261/.311 | 8 | 4 | 30 | — | .161/.216/.269 |
| 2019 | 25 | A+Potomac Natio… | 404 | .265/.343/.370 | 5 | 9 | 45 | — | .196/.254/.273 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAARI | 101 | .180/.277/.258 | 1 | 1 | 11 | — | .140/.208/.204 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 215 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 49 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 279 | 382 | 363 | 745 | 84 | 359 | 19 | 11 | 340 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | GCL Nationals | — | 171 | 147 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 286 | 371 | 381 | 752 | 95 | 339 | 14 | 11 | 335 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 513 | 442 | 121 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 89 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 274 | 361 | 412 | 772 | 138 | 327 | 17 | 10 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 563 | 497 | 123 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 55 | 108 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 247 | 330 | 346 | 676 | 99 | 303 | 19 | 10 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 66 | 60 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 267 | 312 | 317 | 629 | 50 | 381 | 30 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 475 | 431 | 106 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 107 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 246 | 301 | 336 | 638 | 90 | 314 | 23 | 6 | 284 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 18 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 235 | 513 | 308 | 22 | 0 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 403 | 360 | 66 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 101 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 311 | 572 | 128 | 228 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 404 | 359 | 95 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 99 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 265 | 343 | 370 | 714 | 106 | 353 | 25 | 9 | 324 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 101 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 180 | 277 | 258 | 536 | 79 | 283 | 35 | 11 | 253 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 223 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 60 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 188 | 279 | 238 | 517 | 49 | 246 | 24 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 171 | 154 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 227 | 287 | 299 | 586 | 71 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 513 | 460 | 108 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 123 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 235 | 299 | 346 | 644 | 111 | 295 | 24 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 563 | 519 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 158 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 212 | 267 | 287 | 554 | 75 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 475 | 438 | 103 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 128 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 235 | 280 | 313 | 592 | 78 | 312 | 27 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 403 | 372 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 161 | 216 | 269 | 485 | 108 | 214 | 31 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 404 | 373 | 73 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 143 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 196 | 254 | 273 | 527 | 78 | 304 | 35 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 101 | 93 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 140 | 208 | 204 | 412 | 65 | 259 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 223 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 60 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 188 | 279 | 238 | 517 | 49 | 256 | 24 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 215 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 49 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 279 | 382 | 363 | 745 | 84 | 359 | 19 | 11 | 340 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 171 | 154 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 227 | 287 | 299 | 586 | 71 | 292 | 20 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Nationals | — | 171 | 147 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 24 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 286 | 371 | 381 | 752 | 95 | 339 | 14 | 11 | 335 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 513 | 460 | 108 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 123 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 235 | 299 | 346 | 644 | 111 | 306 | 24 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 513 | 442 | 121 | 35 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 89 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 274 | 361 | 412 | 772 | 138 | 327 | 17 | 10 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 629 | 579 | 124 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 176 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 214 | 268 | 294 | 562 | 79 | 294 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 629 | 557 | 139 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 128 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 250 | 328 | 343 | 671 | 93 | 311 | 20 | 9 | 304 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 454 | 108 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 133 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 238 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 81 | 325 | 27 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 448 | 110 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 111 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 246 | 300 | 333 | 633 | 87 | 313 | 23 | 5 | 282 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 403 | 372 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 161 | 216 | 269 | 485 | 108 | 218 | 31 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 403 | 360 | 66 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 101 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 183 | 261 | 311 | 572 | 128 | 228 | 25 | 9 | 258 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 404 | 373 | 73 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 143 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 196 | 254 | 273 | 527 | 78 | 305 | 35 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 404 | 359 | 95 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 99 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 265 | 343 | 370 | 714 | 106 | 353 | 25 | 9 | 324 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 101 | 93 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 140 | 208 | 204 | 412 | 65 | 255 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 101 | 89 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 180 | 277 | 258 | 536 | 79 | 283 | 35 | 11 | 253 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Nationals | — | 254 | 224 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 60 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 188 | 279 | 237 | 515 | 49 | 246 | 24 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Nationals | — | 171 | 156 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 224 | 287 | 295 | 582 | 71 | 280 | 20 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 513 | 466 | 108 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 123 | 10 | 30 | 11 | 232 | 299 | 341 | 640 | 109 | 295 | 24 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 629 | 581 | 124 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 176 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 213 | 268 | 293 | 561 | 79 | 289 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 461 | 108 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 133 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 234 | 284 | 315 | 598 | 80 | 312 | 27 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 403 | 374 | 60 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 125 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 160 | 216 | 267 | 483 | 107 | 214 | 31 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 404 | 372 | 73 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 143 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 196 | 254 | 274 | 528 | 78 | 304 | 35 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 101 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 141 | 208 | 207 | 414 | 65 | 259 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2968 | 2708 | 563 | 118 | 16 | 27 | 173 | 840 | 45 | 106 | 60 | 208 | 267 | 293 | 560 | 85 | 288 | 28 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -168 | -3 | +0 | +32 | +64 | -7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 124 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 184 | 10 | 23 | 13 | 209 | 268 | 297 | 565 | 88 | 290 | 28 | 6 | 246 | 52 | -37 | -1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 101 PAwOBA .247 → .184 (−63)K% 34.7% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.65% | ÷0.946 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.89% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.978 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.025 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 19.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.034 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.271 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .247 → .184; ISO .079 → .052; BABIP .283 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Potomac Nationals · 404 PAwOBA .316 → .235 (−81)K% 24.5% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.50% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.66% | ÷1.023 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.85% | ÷0.928 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 116, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .235; ISO .106 → .081; BABIP .353 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 403 PAwOBA .252 → .212 (−40)K% 25.1% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.06% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.67% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 14.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.95% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.09% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .252 → .212; ISO .128 → .108; BABIP .228 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 475 PAwOBA .278 → .260 (−18)K% 22.5% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.53% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.68% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.027 | 25.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.94% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.031 | ×1.027 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×1.031 | ×1.027 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .278 → .260; ISO .090 → .082; BABIP .314 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Potomac Nationals · 563 PAwOBA .301 → .247 (−54)K% 19.2% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.18% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.77% | ÷1.061 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.14% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | ×1.006 | ×1.012 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .301 → .247; ISO .099 → .080; BABIP .303 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AHagerstown Suns · 513 PAwOBA .336 → .280 (−56)K% 17.3% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.35% | ÷0.971 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.75% | ÷1.054 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.53% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.92% | ÷0.992 | ×0.820 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 8.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.70% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .336 → .280; ISO .138 → .118; BABIP .327 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKGCL Nationals · 171 PAwOBA .329 → .255 (−74)K% 14.0% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 20.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .329 → .255; ISO .095 → .072; BABIP .339 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 DSLDSL Nationals · 254 PAwOBA .334 → .232 (−102)K% 19.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.54% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.033 | ×1.008 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .334 → .232; ISO .084 → .053; BABIP .359 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .