Jesús Liranzo

P Nashville Sounds

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 248 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	28	0	36	6.56	4.19	27.4%	13.1%	—	K 23.2% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.71
2024	29	MIX3 levels	31	3	39	3.66	3.30	30.7%	9.0%	—	K 24.7% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.22
2025	30	AAAMIL	48	0	58	3.39	3.43	25.8%	9.3%	—	K 22.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.60
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIL	61	0	64	4.18	4.18	22.5%	8.2%	0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBMIL	21	0	22	4.34	4.44	22.1%	8.7%	0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBMIL	16	0	17	4.56	4.71	21.7%	9.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Tony Barnette (age 32) · Dale Thayer (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%22.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP64

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles 1	23	0	38	163	46	18	0	0%	1.7	19.2%	13.8%	5.4%	0.0%	2.35	3.23	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles 1	23	0	38	163	46	18	0	0%	1.7	28.2%	11.0%	17.2%	0.0%	2.35	2.11	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	53	207	66	27	3	0%	2.0	24.3%	14.9%	9.3%	1.6%	1.87	3.84	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	53	207	66	27	3	0%	2.0	31.9%	13.0%	18.8%	1.4%	1.87	2.87	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	31	12	65	288	75	43	12	39%	2.1	21.1%	16.4%	4.7%	5.0%	4.85	6.15	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	31	12	65	288	75	43	12	39%	2.1	26.0%	14.9%	11.1%	4.2%	4.85	5.18	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	57	242	65	34	7	0%	1.4	21.1%	16.6%	4.5%	3.8%	3.95	5.49	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	57	242	65	34	7	0%	1.4	26.9%	14.0%	12.8%	2.9%	3.95	4.21	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	59	256	54	34	7	0%	1.4	17.9%	14.2%	3.7%	3.2%	5.03	5.12	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	59	256	54	34	7	0%	1.4	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	2.7%	5.03	4.54	—
2021	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	16	0	18	72	22	3	3	0%	1.1	26.9%	4.4%	22.5%	4.8%	3.06	4.01	—
2021	26	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	16	0	18	72	22	3	3	0%	1.1	30.6%	4.2%	26.4%	4.2%	3.06	3.33	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	19	95	29	14	5	0%	0.9	26.1%	15.0%	11.1%	5.9%	9.64	6.03	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	19	95	29	14	5	0%	0.9	30.5%	14.7%	15.8%	5.3%	9.64	5.72	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	36	168	46	22	5	0%	1.3	23.2%	11.7%	11.5%	3.8%	6.56	4.71	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	36	168	46	22	5	0%	1.3	27.4%	13.1%	14.3%	3.0%	6.56	4.19	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	3	39	166	51	15	5	10%	1.3	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	1.8%	3.66	3.22	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	3	39	166	51	15	5	10%	1.3	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	1.8%	3.66	3.22	—
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	3	39	166	51	15	5	10%	1.3	30.7%	9.0%	21.7%	3.0%	3.66	3.30	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	48	0	58	248	64	23	6	0%	1.2	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	2.4%	3.39	3.60	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	48	0	58	248	64	23	6	0%	1.2	22.2%	8.3%	13.8%	2.4%	3.39	3.60	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	48	0	58	248	64	23	6	0%	1.2	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	2.4%	3.39	3.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIL	61	0	64	270	61	22	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.18	4.18	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIL	56	0	59	248	55	22	8	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	3.1%	4.34	4.44	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	MIL	51	0	53	225	49	21	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.71	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIL	21	0	22	93	21	8	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	3.1%	4.34	4.44	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	MIL	16	0	17	72	16	7	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	0	39	164	36	15	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.18	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	77	26	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.44	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		307	15	442	1905	418	251	59	5%	1.4	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	3.1%	4.15	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	7	200	862	189	113	27	5%	1.4	22.0%	13.2%	8.8%	3.1%	4.15	4.63	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Liranzo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	22.5%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.57	21.9%	12.9%	112	+0.39	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	84
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	84
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	83
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	82
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	81
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	78
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	78
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	78
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	77
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	77
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	77
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	77
James Hoyt R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.2%	9.9%	1.8%	.355	5.63	22.1%	10.4%	50	+2.18	1.61	312	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.1%	8.7%	1.21	4.35
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*