Alex D. Mejia

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1991-01-18

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	33	INTLAguilas de Me…	247	.281/.347/.350	2	4	96	—
2025	34	INTLAguilas de Me…	249	.288/.324/.403	4	2	96	—
2026	35	INTLAguilas de Me…	45	.359/.444/.513	1	0	176	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	326	295	61	14	0	0	13	39	4	6	3	207	250	254	504	47	235	12	4	222	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	169	153	43	9	2	1	9	29	2	2	1	281	329	386	715	105	339	17	5	312	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	183	163	44	3	1	3	13	20	2	2	2	270	331	356	687	86	287	11	7	305	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	294	275	78	13	1	1	9	41	1	4	2	284	309	349	658	65	328	14	3	287	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	187	167	46	7	1	3	15	25	1	3	0	275	339	383	722	108	305	13	8	319	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	132	115	31	5	1	2	11	19	2	1	1	270	344	383	726	113	305	14	8	319	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	108	99	27	7	2	0	4	12	2	0	0	273	314	384	698	111	310	11	4	303	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	187	170	37	7	0	1	13	26	1	1	1	218	277	276	554	59	248	14	7	252	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	49	46	5	0	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	109	146	174	320	65	125	27	4	145	-13	-7	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.2
2017	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	224	206	69	15	0	4	14	30	2	1	1	335	383	466	849	131	376	13	6	375	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	251	227	57	17	0	3	16	36	3	1	1	251	309	366	675	115	283	14	6	299	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	322	88	4	1	4	19	54	3	6	3	273	320	329	649	56	313	15	5	292	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	418	377	132	26	1	9	28	63	3	3	4	350	400	496	896	146	394	15	7	388	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	100	91	24	4	0	1	8	12	0	1	1	264	323	341	664	77	295	12	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	120	105	24	5	0	0	13	20	0	1	4	229	314	276	590	48	279	17	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	140	132	37	2	0	1	5	19	2	2	1	280	317	318	635	38	321	14	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	143	126	31	3	0	1	15	28	0	1	1	246	326	294	620	48	306	20	10	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	247	217	61	9	0	2	17	35	5	4	7	281	347	350	698	69	322	14	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	249	226	65	14	0	4	8	34	4	2	1	288	324	403	726	115	321	14	3	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	45	39	14	3	0	1	4	4	2	0	0	359	444	513	957	154	382	9	9	428	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	49	46	5	0	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	109	146	174	320	65	125	27	4	145	-16	-7	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	326	299	58	14	0	0	9	57	4	6	3	194	228	241	468	47	225	17	3	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	169	156	38	6	2	1	6	40	2	2	1	244	280	327	607	83	308	24	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	183	168	44	3	1	2	8	25	2	2	2	262	303	327	631	65	279	14	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	294	278	69	13	1	1	6	58	1	4	2	248	267	313	580	65	299	20	2	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	187	172	44	7	1	2	10	33	1	3	0	256	301	343	644	87	289	18	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	132	119	29	4	1	1	7	24	2	1	1	244	297	319	616	76	284	18	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	108	100	25	6	2	0	3	16	2	0	0	250	286	350	636	100	295	15	3	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	187	174	35	6	0	1	9	31	1	1	1	201	245	253	497	52	234	17	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	49	46	5	0	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	109	146	174	320	65	125	27	4	149	-13	-7	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.2
2017	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	224	210	60	12	0	3	10	38	2	1	1	286	324	386	710	100	332	17	4	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	251	233	50	14	0	2	10	44	3	1	1	215	256	300	557	86	248	18	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	327	78	3	1	3	14	72	3	6	3	239	276	281	558	43	289	21	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	418	385	109	20	1	6	20	76	3	3	4	283	324	387	711	104	323	18	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	455	97	20	2	1	15	97	6	8	4	213	248	273	520	59	265	20	3	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	495	448	104	23	2	1	22	68	6	8	4	232	277	299	576	67	268	14	4	253	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	477	445	113	16	2	3	15	83	3	6	4	254	283	319	602	65	302	17	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	477	438	122	16	2	4	22	61	3	6	4	279	317	352	669	73	312	13	5	294	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	291	72	11	2	3	17	57	3	4	1	247	296	330	626	82	295	18	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	319	282	77	12	2	5	26	44	3	4	1	273	341	383	724	110	305	14	8	319	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	295	274	62	13	2	1	12	47	3	1	1	226	266	299	566	73	268	16	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	295	269	64	14	2	1	17	38	3	1	1	238	291	316	607	78	272	13	6	271	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	524	489	115	26	0	6	22	96	5	2	2	235	275	325	600	90	279	18	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA RAW	3 teams	—	524	479	131	32	0	8	32	79	5	2	2	273	326	390	716	117	311	15	6	317	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	327	78	3	1	3	14	72	3	6	3	239	276	281	558	43	293	21	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	322	88	4	1	4	19	54	3	6	3	273	320	329	649	56	313	15	5	292	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	518	479	135	24	1	8	25	95	3	4	5	282	321	386	708	104	332	18	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	518	468	156	30	1	10	36	75	3	4	5	333	385	466	850	132	374	14	7	371	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	120	105	24	5	0	0	13	20	0	1	4	229	314	276	590	48	279	17	11	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	120	105	24	5	0	0	13	20	0	1	4	229	314	276	590	48	279	17	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	140	132	37	2	0	1	5	19	2	2	1	280	317	318	635	38	321	14	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	140	132	37	2	0	1	5	19	2	2	1	280	317	318	635	38	321	14	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	143	126	31	3	0	1	15	28	0	1	1	246	326	294	620	48	306	20	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	143	126	31	3	0	1	15	28	0	1	1	246	326	294	620	48	306	20	10	286	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	247	217	61	9	0	2	17	35	5	4	7	281	347	350	698	69	322	14	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	247	217	61	9	0	2	17	35	5	4	7	281	347	350	698	69	322	14	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	249	226	65	14	0	4	8	34	4	2	1	288	324	403	726	115	321	14	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	249	226	65	14	0	4	8	34	4	2	1	288	324	403	726	115	321	14	3	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	45	39	14	3	0	1	4	4	2	0	0	359	444	513	957	154	382	9	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	45	39	14	3	0	1	4	4	2	0	0	359	444	513	957	154	382	9	9	428	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	495	471	97	20	2	1	15	97	6	8	4	206	248	263	511	57	253	20	3	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	477	456	113	16	2	3	15	83	3	6	4	248	283	311	594	64	291	17	3	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	319	296	72	11	2	3	17	57	3	4	1	243	296	324	620	81	287	18	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	295	278	62	13	2	1	12	47	3	1	1	223	266	295	561	72	256	16	4	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AA MLE	3 teams	—	524	492	115	26	0	6	22	96	5	2	2	234	275	323	598	89	272	18	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	349	329	78	3	1	3	14	72	3	6	3	237	276	280	556	43	289	21	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	518	485	135	24	1	8	25	95	3	4	5	278	321	381	703	103	323	18	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	49	46	5	0	0	1	2	13	0	0	0	109	146	174	320	65	125	27	4	145	21	-7	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	610	66	0	0	13	27	172	0	0	0	108	146	172	318	64	125	26	4	145	21	-90	+0	+19	+25	+14	-3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3921	3605	904	149	10	34	182	687	39	41	34	251	294	326	620	75	298	18	5	199	21	-7	+0	+1	+2	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	151	25	2	6	30	114	6	7	6	253	295	331	626	79	300	18	5	199	21	-90	+0	+19	+25	+14	-3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAAcereros del Norte · 418 PAwOBA .384 → .309 (−76)K% 15.1% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.07%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.70%	÷0.960	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.78%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.67%
Singles /BIP	30.57%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	25.87%
Doubles /BIP	8.28%	÷1.048	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	6.18%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷0.922	×0.920	×0.950	×0.992	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	2.87%	÷1.015	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.96%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 110, 3B 84, K 98, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .384 → .309; ISO .146 → .107; BABIP .394 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 349 PAwOBA .288 → .251 (−37)K% 15.5% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.47%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	20.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.44%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.003	4.04%
HBP% /PA	0.86%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.84%
Singles /BIP	29.48%	÷0.984	×0.900	×1.012	×1.003	27.36%
Doubles /BIP	1.49%	÷0.957	×0.810	×1.012	×1.003	1.28%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷0.984	×0.810	×1.012	×1.003	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	1.49%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.28%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .288 → .251; ISO .056 → .047; BABIP .313 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 251 PAwOBA .293 → .244 (−49)K% 14.3% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.34%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.98%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×0.988	3.94%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	1.03%
Singles /BIP	19.37%	÷0.992	×0.920	×0.997	×0.988	17.70%
Doubles /BIP	8.90%	÷1.009	×0.840	×0.997	×0.988	7.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.093	×0.940	×0.997	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.57%	÷1.315	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.94%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .293 → .244; ISO .115 → .087; BABIP .283 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 224 PAwOBA .367 → .311 (−56)K% 13.4% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.39%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	17.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.018	4.53%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.89%
Singles /BIP	28.41%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.997	×1.018	25.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.997	×1.018	6.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.997	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.018	1.84%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .367 → .311; ISO .131 → .104; BABIP .376 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 187 PAwOBA .248 → .221 (−28)K% 13.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.90%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	16.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.95%	÷0.999	×0.700	—	×0.998	4.86%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	0.46%
Singles /BIP	20.14%	÷0.966	×0.920	×1.014	×0.998	19.41%
Doubles /BIP	4.86%	÷0.986	×0.840	×1.014	×0.998	4.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.014	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.69%	÷1.155	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.48%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .248 → .221; ISO .059 → .048; BABIP .248 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 108 PAwOBA .295 → .276 (−19)K% 11.1% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.11%	÷0.988	×1.290	—	—	14.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.70%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×1.033	2.76%
HBP% /PA	1.85%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.87%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷0.989	×0.900	×1.031	×1.033	20.04%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷0.941	×0.810	×1.031	×1.033	7.37%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷0.951	×0.810	×1.031	×1.033	2.08%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.931	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .295 → .276; ISO .111 → .102; BABIP .310 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 187 PAwOBA .312 → .278 (−35)K% 13.4% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.37%	÷0.967	×1.290	—	—	17.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.49%	÷1.013	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.50%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.55%
Singles /BIP	24.65%	÷1.030	×0.900	×1.043	×1.048	23.54%
Doubles /BIP	4.93%	÷0.946	×0.810	×1.043	×1.048	4.62%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.043	×1.048	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	2.11%	÷1.224	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.41%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 106, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .312 → .278; ISO .108 → .087; BABIP .305 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 132 PAwOBA .311 → .278 (−33)K% 14.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.39%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.36%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	1.33%
Singles /BIP	23.96%	÷0.982	×0.920	×1.005	×1.012	22.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.21%	÷1.003	×0.840	×1.005	×1.012	4.44%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷1.003	×0.940	×1.005	×1.012	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.140	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.48%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .311 → .278; ISO .113 → .094; BABIP .305 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .