Dylan Cozens
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AAAPHI | 348 | .246/.349/.529 | 21 | 9 | 93 | — | .203/.282/.435 | |
| 2018 | 24 | MLBPHI | 44 | .158/.273/.289 | 1 | 1 | 62 | -0.5 | ||
| 2019 | 25 | AAATB | 108 | .176/.346/.494 | 7 | 5 | 76 | — | .143/.271/.374 | |
| 2021 | 27 | AAAMIL | 100 | .177/.343/.329 | 2 | 4 | 49 | — | .153/.273/.282 | |
| 2022 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 161 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 255 | 341 | 441 | 782 | 186 | 321 | 24 | 11 | 345 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 556 | 509 | 126 | 25 | 6 | 16 | 40 | 147 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 248 | 305 | 415 | 719 | 167 | 314 | 26 | 7 | 316 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 179 | 161 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 41 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 255 | 326 | 478 | 804 | 224 | 295 | 23 | 9 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 44 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 350 | 395 | 625 | 1.020 | 275 | 355 | 16 | 7 | 433 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 397 | 365 | 103 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 79 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 282 | 337 | 411 | 748 | 129 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 267 | 467 | 67 | 273 | 27 | 0 | 206 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 99 | 91 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 275 | 333 | 407 | 740 | 132 | 319 | 19 | 8 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 586 | 521 | 144 | 38 | 3 | 40 | 61 | 186 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 276 | 352 | 591 | 943 | 315 | 348 | 32 | 10 | 403 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 97 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 268 | 353 | 621 | 188 | 204 | 33 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 542 | 476 | 100 | 12 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 194 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 302 | 418 | 720 | 208 | 283 | 36 | 11 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 44 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 289 | 562 | 132 | 385 | 55 | 14 | 263 | 62 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 348 | 297 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 46 | 124 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 246 | 349 | 529 | 877 | 283 | 333 | 36 | 13 | 378 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 108 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 176 | 346 | 494 | 840 | 318 | 222 | 40 | 20 | 364 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 100 | 79 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 343 | 329 | 673 | 152 | 353 | 43 | 19 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 44 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 289 | 562 | 132 | 385 | 55 | 14 | 263 | 64 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 169 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 178 | 236 | 302 | 538 | 124 | 257 | 34 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 556 | 522 | 106 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 193 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 203 | 245 | 341 | 586 | 138 | 281 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 44 | 41 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 317 | 349 | 512 | 861 | 195 | 352 | 18 | 5 | 399 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 397 | 370 | 90 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 119 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 243 | 291 | 351 | 642 | 108 | 343 | 30 | 5 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 133 | 200 | 333 | 67 | 211 | 40 | 0 | 129 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 586 | 542 | 114 | 31 | 2 | 23 | 40 | 243 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 210 | 265 | 402 | 667 | 192 | 323 | 41 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 542 | 493 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 41 | 242 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 160 | 232 | 318 | 550 | 158 | 245 | 45 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB MLE | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 44 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 289 | 562 | 132 | 385 | 55 | 14 | 260 | 62 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 348 | 310 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 155 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 203 | 282 | 435 | 717 | 232 | 303 | 45 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 108 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 271 | 374 | 645 | 231 | 201 | 47 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 100 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 129 | 313 | 50 | 13 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 169 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 178 | 236 | 302 | 538 | 124 | 255 | 34 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 161 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 44 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 255 | 341 | 441 | 782 | 186 | 321 | 24 | 11 | 345 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 735 | 691 | 139 | 26 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 255 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 201 | 243 | 334 | 577 | 133 | 287 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 735 | 670 | 167 | 37 | 6 | 24 | 56 | 188 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 249 | 310 | 430 | 740 | 181 | 310 | 26 | 8 | 325 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 555 | 520 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 162 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 248 | 292 | 362 | 653 | 113 | 345 | 29 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 555 | 511 | 145 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 109 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 284 | 337 | 423 | 760 | 139 | 340 | 20 | 7 | 337 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 683 | 632 | 134 | 36 | 3 | 27 | 47 | 283 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 212 | 267 | 407 | 673 | 195 | 328 | 41 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 683 | 606 | 158 | 42 | 3 | 44 | 73 | 218 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 261 | 340 | 558 | 898 | 297 | 328 | 32 | 11 | 386 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 542 | 493 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 41 | 242 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 160 | 232 | 318 | 550 | 158 | 249 | 45 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 542 | 476 | 100 | 12 | 3 | 27 | 58 | 194 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 302 | 418 | 720 | 208 | 283 | 36 | 11 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 348 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 39 | 179 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 198 | 281 | 420 | 700 | 221 | 325 | 46 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 392 | 335 | 79 | 19 | 2 | 22 | 52 | 148 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 236 | 340 | 501 | 842 | 266 | 337 | 38 | 13 | 365 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 108 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 271 | 374 | 645 | 231 | 222 | 47 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 108 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 43 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 176 | 346 | 494 | 840 | 318 | 222 | 40 | 20 | 364 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 100 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 153 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 129 | 333 | 50 | 13 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 100 | 79 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 177 | 343 | 329 | 673 | 152 | 353 | 43 | 19 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 168 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 179 | 236 | 304 | 540 | 125 | 257 | 34 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 735 | 691 | 139 | 26 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 255 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 201 | 243 | 334 | 577 | 133 | 281 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 555 | 518 | 129 | 28 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 162 | 4 | 22 | 8 | 249 | 292 | 363 | 655 | 114 | 340 | 29 | 5 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 683 | 631 | 134 | 36 | 3 | 27 | 47 | 283 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 212 | 267 | 407 | 674 | 195 | 323 | 41 | 7 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 542 | 491 | 79 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 41 | 242 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 161 | 232 | 320 | 552 | 159 | 245 | 45 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 349 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 39 | 179 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 198 | 281 | 418 | 699 | 221 | 312 | 46 | 10 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 108 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 143 | 271 | 374 | 645 | 231 | 201 | 47 | 15 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 100 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 151 | 273 | 279 | 552 | 128 | 313 | 50 | 13 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 273 | 289 | 562 | 132 | 385 | 55 | 14 | 263 | 68 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 561 | 89 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 89 | 355 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 159 | 274 | 292 | 566 | 134 | 387 | 55 | 14 | 263 | 68 | -28 | +3 | -1 | -62 | +14 | -7.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3298 | 3029 | 606 | 127 | 23 | 103 | 232 | 1285 | 14 | 114 | 34 | 200 | 260 | 359 | 619 | 159 | 303 | 39 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 120 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 46 | 253 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 201 | 262 | 360 | 622 | 159 | 305 | 39 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -28 | +3 | -1 | -62 | +14 | -7.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 100 PAwOBA .302 → .241 (−61)K% 43.0% → 50.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.00% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 50.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 13.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 18.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 8.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.003 | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.26% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .241; ISO .152 → .118; BABIP .353 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAADurham Bulls · 108 PAwOBA .358 → .281 (−77)K% 39.8% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.81% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.37% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 14.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 9.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.025 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 4.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.128 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 12.82% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .358 → .281; ISO .318 → .254; BABIP .222 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 348 PAwOBA .369 → .306 (−63)K% 35.6% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.63% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.36% | ÷0.932 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 17.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.83% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×1.048 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.14% | ÷0.954 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 11.20% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .369 → .306; ISO .283 → .239; BABIP .333 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 542 PAwOBA .312 → .240 (−72)K% 35.8% → 44.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.79% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.52% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.57% | ÷1.055 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.050 | 18.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.050 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.047 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.050 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.57% | ÷1.043 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 8.10% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 111, 2B 94, 3B 109, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .312 → .240; ISO .208 → .160; BABIP .283 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAReading Fightin Phils · 586 PAwOBA .393 → .290 (−103)K% 31.7% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.74% | ÷0.936 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.042 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 19.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.34% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 10.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.010 | ×1.042 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.94% | ÷1.273 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 7.62% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 87, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .393 → .290; ISO .315 → .202; BABIP .348 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Clearwater Threshers · 397 PAwOBA .325 → .280 (−45)K% 19.9% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.90% | ÷0.940 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.30% | ÷0.918 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.83% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 24.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.950 | ×0.960 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 8.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×1.027 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.42% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 93, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 88, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .325 → .280; ISO .129 → .106; BABIP .346 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 44 PAwOBA .430 → .399 (−31)K% 15.9% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.91% | ÷1.060 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 27.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.050 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.021 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 7.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 112, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .430 → .399; ISO .275 → .234; BABIP .355 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Phillies · 15 PAwOBA .200 → .129 (−71)K% 26.7% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 14.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .200 → .129; ISO .067 → .040; BABIP .273 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .