Alfredo Escalera
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 506 | .258/.303/.347 | 7 | 15 | 49 | — | .221/.259/.290 |
| 2018 | 23 | AA/ROK2 orgs | 182 | .242/.318/.373 | 5 | 9 | 45 | — | .193/.251/.295 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA/A+NYM | 76 | .114/.184/.114 | 0 | 1 | -43 | — | .070/.132/.070 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 128 | 119 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 303 | 346 | 361 | 708 | 59 | 396 | 23 | 4 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | Burlington Royals | — | 204 | 184 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 277 | 335 | 380 | 715 | 103 | 352 | 21 | 7 | 317 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 475 | 438 | 97 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 111 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 221 | 268 | 340 | 608 | 119 | 275 | 23 | 4 | 269 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 222 | 199 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 61 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 206 | 285 | 291 | 577 | 85 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Lexington Legends | — | 285 | 262 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 58 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 313 | 359 | 477 | 837 | 164 | 372 | 20 | 4 | 366 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 218 | 202 | 56 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 277 | 303 | 376 | 680 | 99 | 353 | 23 | 3 | 294 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 311 | 283 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 75 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 269 | 334 | 343 | 677 | 74 | 356 | 24 | 7 | 311 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 81 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 210 | 192 | 402 | 13 | 259 | 30 | 2 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 490 | 456 | 119 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 113 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 261 | 307 | 353 | 660 | 92 | 331 | 23 | 4 | 296 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 188 | 188 | 188 | 375 | 231 | 19 | 0 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 144 | 129 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 240 | 310 | 372 | 682 | 132 | 310 | 28 | 7 | 304 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Royals | — | 38 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 351 | 375 | 726 | 125 | 259 | 13 | 13 | 323 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 25 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 160 | 125 | 285 | 231 | 44 | 4 | 137 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 51 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 109 | 196 | 109 | 305 | 200 | 41 | 6 | 159 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 128 | 121 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 268 | 264 | 532 | 33 | 347 | 33 | 2 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 204 | 189 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 217 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 79 | 298 | 29 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 475 | 444 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 143 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 207 | 245 | 302 | 546 | 95 | 278 | 30 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 222 | 206 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 87 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 170 | 226 | 238 | 464 | 68 | 277 | 39 | 5 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 285 | 266 | 72 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 80 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 271 | 310 | 398 | 708 | 128 | 351 | 28 | 2 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 218 | 207 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 256 | 270 | 348 | 618 | 92 | 326 | 28 | 1 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 311 | 291 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 101 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 237 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 69 | 350 | 32 | 4 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 490 | 462 | 102 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 143 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 221 | 259 | 290 | 549 | 69 | 303 | 29 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 144 | 132 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 189 | 246 | 288 | 534 | 98 | 261 | 35 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 206 | 270 | 324 | 594 | 118 | 200 | 18 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 25 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 160 | 125 | 285 | 221 | 48 | 4 | 113 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 51 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 118 | 43 | 160 | 174 | 63 | 4 | 100 | -46 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 128 | 121 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 268 | 264 | 532 | 33 | 350 | 33 | 2 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK RAW | AZL Royals | — | 128 | 119 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 303 | 346 | 361 | 708 | 59 | 396 | 23 | 4 | 319 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 204 | 189 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 217 | 260 | 296 | 556 | 79 | 310 | 29 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | Burlington Royals | — | 204 | 184 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 277 | 335 | 380 | 715 | 103 | 352 | 21 | 7 | 317 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 475 | 444 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 143 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 207 | 245 | 302 | 546 | 95 | 287 | 30 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A RAW | Lexington Legends | — | 475 | 438 | 97 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 111 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 221 | 268 | 340 | 608 | 119 | 275 | 23 | 4 | 269 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 473 | 107 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 167 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 226 | 271 | 328 | 599 | 101 | 329 | 33 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 461 | 123 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 119 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 267 | 327 | 397 | 724 | 130 | 337 | 23 | 5 | 322 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 610 | 576 | 140 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 187 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 243 | 277 | 316 | 593 | 73 | 348 | 31 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 610 | 563 | 146 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 150 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 259 | 307 | 334 | 641 | 75 | 342 | 25 | 5 | 288 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 477 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 147 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 222 | 261 | 291 | 552 | 69 | 309 | 29 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 506 | 472 | 122 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 116 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 258 | 303 | 347 | 650 | 89 | 328 | 23 | 4 | 292 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 166 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 57 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 187 | 246 | 283 | 529 | 96 | 250 | 31 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 182 | 161 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 45 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 242 | 318 | 373 | 691 | 130 | 298 | 25 | 8 | 308 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 70 | 132 | 70 | 202 | 192 | 59 | 4 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 76 | 70 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 114 | 184 | 114 | 298 | 211 | 42 | 5 | 151 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 17 | ROK MLE | AZL Royals | — | 128 | 121 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 268 | 264 | 532 | 33 | 347 | 33 | 2 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | Burlington Royals | — | 204 | 191 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 215 | 260 | 293 | 553 | 79 | 298 | 29 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | A MLE | Lexington Legends | — | 475 | 450 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 143 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 204 | 245 | 298 | 542 | 93 | 278 | 30 | 3 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 473 | 107 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 167 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 226 | 271 | 328 | 599 | 101 | 319 | 33 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 610 | 578 | 140 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 187 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 242 | 277 | 315 | 592 | 73 | 340 | 31 | 3 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 506 | 476 | 106 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 147 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 223 | 261 | 292 | 553 | 69 | 303 | 29 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 182 | 167 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 57 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 186 | 246 | 281 | 527 | 96 | 248 | 31 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 70 | 132 | 70 | 202 | 189 | 59 | 4 | 104 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2688 | 2517 | 550 | 86 | 12 | 30 | 83 | 848 | 55 | 71 | 25 | 219 | 259 | 298 | 557 | 79 | 314 | 32 | 3 | 244 | 51 | -155 | +4 | +0 | +10 | +58 | -8.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 133 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 205 | 13 | 17 | 6 | 218 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 79 | 314 | 32 | 3 | 244 | 51 | -38 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 A+St. Lucie Mets · 51 PAwOBA .155 → .100 (−55)K% 41.2% → 63.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 41.18% | ÷0.917 | ×1.420 | — | — | 63.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.975 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 4.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 3.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.122 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 112, K 83, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .155 → .100; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 25 PAwOBA .133 → .113 (−20)K% 44.0% → 49.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 44.00% | ÷1.083 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 22.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .133 → .113; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 144 PAwOBA .300 → .235 (−66)K% 27.8% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.72% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.027 | 21.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.113 | ×0.840 | ×0.965 | ×1.027 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.940 | ×0.965 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.66% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 109, 2B 123, 3B 91, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .300 → .235; ISO .132 → .100; BABIP .310 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKAZL Royals · 38 PAwOBA .324 → .238 (−86)K% 13.2% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 17.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 2.79% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .324 → .238; ISO .125 → .095; BABIP .259 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 490 PAwOBA .289 → .243 (−46)K% 23.1% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.06% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.67% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 2.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.11% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×1.042 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.96% | ÷1.091 | ×0.840 | ×1.023 | ×1.042 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×1.042 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.114 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.53% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .289 → .243; ISO .092 → .071; BABIP .331 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 311 PAwOBA .301 → .259 (−42)K% 24.1% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.12% | ÷1.051 | ×1.420 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.43% | ÷1.014 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 4.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.25% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.81% | ÷1.024 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 29.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷0.954 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 1.40% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .301 → .259; ISO .074 → .065; BABIP .356 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 218 PAwOBA .285 → .263 (−22)K% 23.4% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.39% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.38% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.49% | ÷1.061 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | ×1.050 | 24.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.27% | ÷1.029 | ×0.840 | ×1.032 | ×1.050 | 8.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | ×1.032 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.967 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .285 → .263; ISO .099 → .088; BABIP .353 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ALexington Legends · 285 PAwOBA .358 → .302 (−56)K% 20.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.35% | ÷0.974 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.16% | ÷1.074 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 2.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.43% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 27.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.37% | ÷1.026 | ×0.820 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.020 | ×0.940 | ×1.024 | ×1.030 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.103 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 3.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 99, 2B 105, 3B 104, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .358 → .302; ISO .164 → .127; BABIP .372 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .