Taylor Jones
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | AAASugar Land Sk… | 212 | .331/.431/.584 | 10 | 0 | 124 | — | .271/.344/.468 | |
| 2021 | 27 | MLBHOU | 108 | .245/.274/.402 | 2 | 0 | 80 | -0.6 | ||
| 2022 | 28 | AAASF | 351 | .262/.371/.453 | 12 | 0 | 80 | — | .212/.300/.344 | |
| 2023 | 29 | AAALAA | 204 | .229/.335/.440 | 8 | 5 | 61 | — | .174/.251/.315 | |
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 223 | 191 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 327 | 293 | 620 | 68 | 291 | 23 | 13 | 288 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 202 | 174 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 310 | 351 | 660 | 132 | 268 | 25 | 8 | 295 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 163 | 143 | 30 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 298 | 378 | 676 | 168 | 266 | 28 | 10 | 301 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 367 | 309 | 97 | 25 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 314 | 414 | 528 | 942 | 214 | 377 | 21 | 12 | 410 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 531 | 447 | 130 | 28 | 0 | 22 | 68 | 112 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 291 | 394 | 501 | 895 | 210 | 336 | 21 | 13 | 391 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 381 | 608 | 190 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 267 | 66 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 108 | 102 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 274 | 402 | 676 | 157 | 315 | 27 | 4 | 292 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 212 | 178 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 331 | 431 | 584 | 1.015 | 253 | 383 | 20 | 15 | 436 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 351 | 298 | 78 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 86 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 371 | 453 | 824 | 191 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 369 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 204 | 175 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 335 | 440 | 775 | 211 | 264 | 23 | 13 | 344 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 130 | 123 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 266 | 398 | 664 | 163 | 302 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +3 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 223 | 201 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 245 | 234 | 479 | 60 | 252 | 34 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 202 | 179 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 244 | 251 | 495 | 84 | 221 | 32 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 163 | 148 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 236 | 297 | 533 | 128 | 243 | 37 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 367 | 326 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 95 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 323 | 405 | 728 | 156 | 310 | 26 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 531 | 468 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 18 | 47 | 141 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 321 | 404 | 725 | 162 | 294 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 381 | 608 | 190 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 108 | 102 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 274 | 402 | 676 | 157 | 315 | 27 | 4 | 287 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 212 | 188 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 271 | 344 | 468 | 813 | 197 | 325 | 25 | 10 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 351 | 311 | 66 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 105 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 300 | 344 | 644 | 132 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 204 | 184 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 251 | 315 | 566 | 141 | 221 | 27 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 380 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 245 | 242 | 487 | 71 | 248 | 33 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 365 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 101 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 319 | 321 | 639 | 99 | 280 | 24 | 11 | 291 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 473 | 107 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 156 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 300 | 376 | 677 | 150 | 300 | 29 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 530 | 452 | 127 | 32 | 2 | 18 | 61 | 124 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 281 | 379 | 480 | 859 | 199 | 344 | 23 | 12 | 377 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 531 | 468 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 18 | 47 | 141 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 321 | 404 | 725 | 162 | 300 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 531 | 447 | 130 | 28 | 0 | 22 | 68 | 112 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 291 | 394 | 501 | 895 | 210 | 336 | 21 | 13 | 391 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 381 | 608 | 190 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB RAW | Houston Astros | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 381 | 608 | 190 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 267 | 66 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 290 | 76 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 321 | 445 | 765 | 183 | 324 | 25 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 320 | 280 | 84 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 300 | 378 | 518 | 896 | 218 | 358 | 22 | 11 | 387 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 351 | 311 | 66 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 105 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 300 | 344 | 644 | 132 | 291 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 351 | 298 | 78 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 86 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 371 | 453 | 824 | 191 | 328 | 25 | 11 | 369 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 204 | 184 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 174 | 251 | 315 | 566 | 141 | 218 | 27 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | — | 204 | 175 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 335 | 440 | 775 | 211 | 264 | 23 | 13 | 344 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 385 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 140 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 245 | 239 | 484 | 70 | 237 | 33 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 475 | 107 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 156 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 225 | 300 | 375 | 675 | 149 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 531 | 471 | 113 | 22 | 0 | 18 | 47 | 141 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 321 | 401 | 722 | 161 | 294 | 27 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 381 | 608 | 190 | 231 | 32 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 320 | 292 | 76 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 260 | 321 | 442 | 762 | 182 | 322 | 25 | 8 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 351 | 309 | 66 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 105 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 300 | 346 | 646 | 133 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 204 | 183 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 56 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 175 | 251 | 317 | 568 | 142 | 221 | 27 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 130 | 123 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 266 | 398 | 664 | 163 | 302 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +3 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 615 | 145 | 45 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 266 | 398 | 664 | 163 | 302 | 28 | 4 | 288 | 80 | -15 | +0 | -6 | -31 | +14 | -3.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2383 | 2127 | 463 | 107 | 4 | 61 | 187 | 686 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 218 | 293 | 358 | 651 | 140 | 285 | 29 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -6 | +3 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 126 | 29 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 187 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 293 | 359 | 651 | 141 | 284 | 29 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -15 | +0 | -6 | -31 | +14 | -3.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 204 PAwOBA .337 → .258 (−78)K% 23.0% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.04% | ÷1.010 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.84% | ÷1.058 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×0.972 | 12.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.16% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.972 | 8.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .337 → .258; ISO .211 → .157; BABIP .264 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 351 PAwOBA .359 → .286 (−73)K% 24.5% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.50% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 3.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.23% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.91% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 8.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .359 → .286; ISO .191 → .139; BABIP .328 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 212 PAwOBA .429 → .352 (−77)K% 20.3% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.28% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.15% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.19% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×0.963 | ×0.992 | 21.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.992 | 9.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 5.50% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .429 → .352; ISO .253 → .204; BABIP .383 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARound Rock Express · 531 PAwOBA .386 → .320 (−66)K% 21.1% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.09% | ÷1.022 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.62% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 8.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷0.966 | ×0.900 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷0.995 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 6.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.57% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 5.50% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .386 → .320; ISO .210 → .173; BABIP .336 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 367 PAwOBA .403 → .322 (−81)K% 21.3% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.25% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.44% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.11% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 21.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.82% | ÷1.075 | ×0.840 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .403 → .322; ISO .214 → .166; BABIP .377 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 163 PAwOBA .297 → .238 (−59)K% 28.2% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.22% | ÷0.982 | ×1.290 | — | — | 37.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.82% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷0.974 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.15% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .297 → .238; ISO .168 → .129; BABIP .266 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Buies Creek Astros · 223 PAwOBA .285 → .212 (−72)K% 22.9% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.87% | ÷0.954 | ×1.420 | — | — | 34.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.56% | ÷0.981 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 22.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 97, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .212; ISO .068 → .052; BABIP .291 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 202 PAwOBA .293 → .223 (−71)K% 24.8% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.75% | ÷1.057 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.42% | ÷0.982 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 16.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.03% | ÷1.154 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 2.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .293 → .223; ISO .132 → .094; BABIP .268 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).