Joey Curletta
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A+Modesto Nuts | 528 | .256/.349/.441 | 15 | 13 | 66 | — | .192/.264/.345 |
| 2018 | 24 | AASEA | 556 | .282/.389/.482 | 23 | 1 | 103 | — | .243/.311/.414 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 493 | .216/.318/.363 | 14 | 4 | 43 | — | .166/.243/.266 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | — | 85 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 241 | 176 | 417 | 27 | 216 | 29 | 8 | 201 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | — | 261 | 230 | 75 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 326 | 404 | 461 | 865 | 135 | 380 | 16 | 10 | 386 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 568 | 516 | 143 | 30 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 111 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 277 | 335 | 380 | 715 | 103 | 338 | 20 | 7 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 447 | 403 | 94 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 130 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 161 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 311 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 107 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 371 | 652 | 165 | 286 | 35 | 9 | 292 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 302 | 270 | 72 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 87 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 267 | 340 | 496 | 836 | 230 | 343 | 29 | 9 | 364 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 454 | 116 | 37 | 1 | 15 | 62 | 136 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 256 | 349 | 441 | 789 | 185 | 324 | 26 | 12 | 346 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 556 | 465 | 131 | 24 | 0 | 23 | 81 | 130 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 282 | 389 | 482 | 871 | 200 | 336 | 23 | 15 | 381 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 119 | 110 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 303 | 400 | 703 | 155 | 333 | 33 | 8 | 314 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 374 | 312 | 64 | 18 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 112 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 322 | 349 | 672 | 144 | 276 | 30 | 13 | 303 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 85 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 157 | 104 | 261 | 13 | 172 | 42 | 5 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 261 | 240 | 57 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 237 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 96 | 296 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 568 | 527 | 126 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 239 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 83 | 306 | 24 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 447 | 412 | 68 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 180 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 225 | 286 | 512 | 121 | 257 | 40 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 107 | 99 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 224 | 283 | 507 | 121 | 272 | 42 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 302 | 279 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 119 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 201 | 257 | 376 | 633 | 176 | 292 | 39 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 473 | 91 | 25 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 187 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 192 | 264 | 345 | 609 | 152 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 556 | 498 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 21 | 48 | 155 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 311 | 414 | 724 | 171 | 296 | 28 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 119 | 113 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 218 | 265 | 484 | 88 | 291 | 43 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 374 | 327 | 53 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 138 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 162 | 251 | 266 | 517 | 104 | 230 | 37 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 85 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 91 | 157 | 104 | 261 | 13 | 163 | 42 | 5 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Dodgers | — | 85 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 241 | 176 | 417 | 27 | 216 | 29 | 8 | 201 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 261 | 240 | 57 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 237 | 296 | 333 | 629 | 96 | 301 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | Ogden Raptors | — | 261 | 230 | 75 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 326 | 404 | 461 | 865 | 135 | 380 | 16 | 10 | 386 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 568 | 527 | 126 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 239 | 285 | 323 | 608 | 83 | 311 | 24 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | Great Lakes Loons | — | 568 | 516 | 143 | 30 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 111 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 277 | 335 | 380 | 715 | 103 | 338 | 20 | 7 | 319 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 447 | 412 | 68 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 180 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 225 | 286 | 512 | 121 | 261 | 40 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 447 | 403 | 94 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 130 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 161 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 311 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 378 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 26 | 164 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 193 | 251 | 357 | 608 | 164 | 292 | 40 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 367 | 92 | 17 | 5 | 17 | 37 | 124 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 251 | 324 | 463 | 788 | 213 | 329 | 30 | 9 | 345 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 473 | 91 | 25 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 187 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 192 | 264 | 345 | 609 | 152 | 271 | 35 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 454 | 116 | 37 | 1 | 15 | 62 | 136 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 256 | 349 | 441 | 789 | 185 | 324 | 26 | 12 | 346 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 556 | 498 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 21 | 48 | 155 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 311 | 414 | 724 | 171 | 302 | 28 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 556 | 465 | 131 | 24 | 0 | 23 | 81 | 130 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 282 | 389 | 482 | 871 | 200 | 336 | 23 | 15 | 381 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 439 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 189 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 169 | 247 | 276 | 523 | 107 | 255 | 38 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 422 | 91 | 20 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 151 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 318 | 363 | 680 | 147 | 291 | 31 | 12 | 305 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Dodgers | — | 85 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 157 | 101 | 258 | 13 | 172 | 42 | 5 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Ogden Raptors | — | 261 | 239 | 57 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 238 | 296 | 335 | 631 | 96 | 296 | 23 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 568 | 529 | 126 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 139 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 238 | 285 | 321 | 607 | 83 | 306 | 24 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 447 | 412 | 68 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 180 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 225 | 286 | 512 | 121 | 257 | 40 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 377 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 26 | 164 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 194 | 251 | 358 | 609 | 164 | 287 | 40 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 528 | 477 | 91 | 25 | 1 | 15 | 43 | 187 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 191 | 264 | 342 | 606 | 151 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 556 | 502 | 121 | 22 | 0 | 21 | 48 | 155 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 311 | 410 | 721 | 169 | 296 | 28 | 9 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 444 | 74 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 189 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 247 | 273 | 520 | 106 | 245 | 38 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3347 | 3044 | 617 | 132 | 6 | 80 | 237 | 1111 | 25 | 36 | 20 | 203 | 266 | 329 | 595 | 126 | 284 | 33 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -149 | -1 | +0 | -60 | +73 | -13.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 120 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 46 | 216 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 203 | 266 | 332 | 598 | 129 | 284 | 33 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -29 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 374 PAwOBA .302 → .235 (−67)K% 29.9% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.95% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.50% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.00% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.67% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .235; ISO .144 → .110; BABIP .276 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 119 PAwOBA .305 → .223 (−82)K% 32.8% → 42.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.77% | ÷0.990 | ×1.290 | — | — | 42.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.56% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.17% | ÷0.985 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 25.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷0.998 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 2.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.049 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 5.41% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .305 → .223; ISO .155 → .104; BABIP .333 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 556 PAwOBA .374 → .320 (−55)K% 23.4% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.38% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.18% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.07% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.16% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.964 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.87% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 6.01% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .374 → .320; ISO .200 → .185; BABIP .336 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 528 PAwOBA .342 → .266 (−77)K% 25.8% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.76% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.55% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.64% | ÷1.082 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 8.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.041 | ×0.760 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 108, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .342 → .266; ISO .185 → .155; BABIP .324 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 302 PAwOBA .355 → .270 (−85)K% 28.8% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.81% | ÷0.979 | ×1.340 | — | — | 39.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.61% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.40% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 19.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷0.938 | ×0.820 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.73% | ÷1.142 | ×0.760 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 6.59% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 88, 3B 128, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .355 → .270; ISO .230 → .179; BABIP .343 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATulsa Drillers · 107 PAwOBA .285 → .231 (−54)K% 34.6% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.58% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.35% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.042 | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.926 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×1.042 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.020 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 99, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .285 → .231; ISO .165 → .126; BABIP .286 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 447 PAwOBA .304 → .225 (−79)K% 29.1% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.08% | ÷0.970 | ×1.340 | — | — | 40.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.32% | ÷1.046 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 15.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.09% | ÷1.109 | ×0.820 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 8.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.898 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .304 → .225; ISO .161 → .123; BABIP .316 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AGreat Lakes Loons · 568 PAwOBA .313 → .265 (−48)K% 19.5% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.54% | ÷1.083 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.22% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 24.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 6.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×1.030 | 0.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.73% | ÷1.002 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 117, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .313 → .265; ISO .103 → .083; BABIP .338 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).