Bruce Caldwell
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AAA/AASTL | 403 | .242/.356/.410 | 14 | 2 | 54 | — | .181/.260/.281 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 487 | .258/.344/.404 | 10 | 1 | 67 | — | .219/.280/.331 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAMIL | 354 | .217/.296/.351 | 9 | 2 | 33 | — | .169/.224/.268 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 166 | 148 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 368 | 520 | 888 | 216 | 368 | 23 | 8 | 383 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 94 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 250 | 238 | 488 | 60 | 230 | 24 | 9 | 224 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 415 | 369 | 91 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 109 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 312 | 434 | 745 | 187 | 313 | 26 | 7 | 321 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 341 | 293 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 85 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 270 | 369 | 437 | 806 | 167 | 348 | 25 | 13 | 359 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 192 | 165 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 248 | 351 | 339 | 690 | 91 | 303 | 17 | 13 | 317 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 23 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 273 | 300 | 573 | 100 | 333 | 35 | 9 | 249 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 403 | 355 | 89 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 116 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 251 | 330 | 400 | 730 | 149 | 333 | 29 | 10 | 323 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 36 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 242 | 226 | 468 | 32 | 333 | 39 | 6 | 200 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 367 | 308 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 52 | 105 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 366 | 429 | 795 | 182 | 326 | 29 | 14 | 357 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 180 | 160 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 309 | 381 | 690 | 150 | 290 | 27 | 9 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 307 | 266 | 73 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 365 | 417 | 782 | 143 | 359 | 23 | 12 | 349 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 354 | 313 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 93 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 296 | 351 | 647 | 134 | 273 | 26 | 10 | 289 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 166 | 155 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 245 | 348 | 594 | 142 | 274 | 33 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 94 | 87 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 185 | 184 | 369 | 46 | 201 | 34 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 415 | 377 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 155 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 255 | 374 | 629 | 172 | 283 | 37 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 341 | 308 | 66 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 106 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 214 | 286 | 331 | 617 | 117 | 300 | 31 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 192 | 172 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 192 | 272 | 267 | 540 | 76 | 252 | 25 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 23 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 286 | 513 | 95 | 308 | 43 | 4 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 403 | 367 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 270 | 313 | 583 | 104 | 301 | 34 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 182 | 188 | 369 | 31 | 299 | 50 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 367 | 328 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 130 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 268 | 290 | 557 | 107 | 270 | 35 | 9 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 180 | 165 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 253 | 315 | 568 | 121 | 258 | 33 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 307 | 279 | 65 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 296 | 341 | 637 | 108 | 320 | 28 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 354 | 325 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 116 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 169 | 224 | 268 | 492 | 98 | 226 | 33 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 166 | 155 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 245 | 348 | 594 | 142 | 283 | 33 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 166 | 148 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 304 | 368 | 520 | 888 | 216 | 368 | 23 | 8 | 383 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 94 | 87 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 138 | 185 | 184 | 369 | 46 | 200 | 34 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 94 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 250 | 238 | 488 | 60 | 230 | 24 | 9 | 224 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 415 | 377 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 155 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 255 | 374 | 629 | 172 | 299 | 37 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 415 | 369 | 91 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 109 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 312 | 434 | 745 | 187 | 313 | 26 | 7 | 321 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 480 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 154 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 281 | 308 | 589 | 102 | 286 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 533 | 458 | 120 | 30 | 2 | 10 | 70 | 118 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 362 | 402 | 764 | 140 | 330 | 22 | 13 | 344 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 388 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 149 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 267 | 312 | 579 | 103 | 311 | 35 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 426 | 375 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 327 | 395 | 722 | 147 | 333 | 29 | 10 | 319 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 359 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 147 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 266 | 284 | 550 | 100 | 282 | 36 | 8 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 339 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 14 | 54 | 119 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 242 | 356 | 410 | 766 | 168 | 327 | 30 | 13 | 343 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 444 | 97 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 218 | 280 | 331 | 611 | 113 | 303 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 487 | 426 | 110 | 30 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 121 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 344 | 404 | 748 | 146 | 334 | 25 | 11 | 334 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 354 | 325 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 116 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 169 | 224 | 268 | 492 | 98 | 232 | 33 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 354 | 313 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 93 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 217 | 296 | 351 | 647 | 134 | 273 | 26 | 10 | 289 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | Johnson City Cardinals | — | 166 | 157 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 245 | 344 | 589 | 140 | 274 | 33 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 94 | 89 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 185 | 180 | 365 | 45 | 201 | 34 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 415 | 385 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 155 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 197 | 255 | 366 | 621 | 169 | 283 | 37 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 533 | 478 | 99 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 154 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 281 | 310 | 591 | 103 | 283 | 29 | 9 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 392 | 81 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 30 | 149 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 267 | 309 | 576 | 102 | 301 | 35 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 360 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 147 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 266 | 283 | 549 | 100 | 273 | 36 | 8 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 446 | 97 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 280 | 330 | 610 | 112 | 297 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 354 | 328 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 116 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 168 | 224 | 265 | 489 | 98 | 226 | 33 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2878 | 2615 | 518 | 110 | 13 | 54 | 206 | 954 | 16 | 18 | 7 | 198 | 261 | 312 | 573 | 114 | 284 | 33 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -147 | +1 | +0 | +10 | +62 | -7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 117 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 47 | 215 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 198 | 262 | 311 | 573 | 113 | 284 | 33 | 7 | 253 | 57 | -33 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 354 PAwOBA .285 → .217 (−69)K% 26.3% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 17.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.09% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .217; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .273 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 307 PAwOBA .340 → .281 (−59)K% 23.5% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.73% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.37% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 9.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .340 → .281; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .359 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 180 PAwOBA .303 → .247 (−56)K% 27.2% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.22% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.034 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.52% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 20.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.004 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.046 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 4.35% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .303 → .247; ISO .150 → .120; BABIP .290 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 367 PAwOBA .347 → .255 (−92)K% 28.6% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.61% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.35% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 8.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 21.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.093 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.315 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.15% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .255; ISO .182 → .116; BABIP .326 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 36 PAwOBA .201 → .170 (−31)K% 38.9% → 49.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.89% | ÷1.010 | ×1.290 | — | — | 49.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷0.997 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.001 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 26.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.021 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .201 → .170; ISO .032 → .026; BABIP .333 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 403 PAwOBA .320 → .260 (−60)K% 28.8% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.78% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.17% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 23.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.60% | ÷1.155 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.18% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .320 → .260; ISO .149 → .111; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 23 PAwOBA .243 → .200 (−43)K% 34.8% → 45.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷0.988 | ×1.290 | — | — | 45.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 7.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.931 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .200; ISO .100 → .081; BABIP .333 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 341 PAwOBA .350 → .277 (−74)K% 24.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.93% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.003 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.140 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .350 → .277; ISO .167 → .124; BABIP .348 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).