Christin Stewart
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 26 | MLBDET | 99 | .167/.224/.300 | 3 | 0 | 48 | -0.6 | ||
| 2021 | 27 | AAADET | 343 | .254/.338/.538 | 21 | 2 | 71 | — | .192/.251/.381 | |
| 2022 | 28 | AAABOS | 409 | .237/.366/.450 | 19 | 9 | 66 | — | .176/.278/.322 | |
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 216 | 185 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 45 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 286 | 380 | 492 | 872 | 205 | 338 | 21 | 8 | 381 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | GCL Tigers | — | 26 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 364 | 462 | 682 | 1.143 | 318 | 438 | 19 | 12 | 489 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 100 | 87 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 313 | 448 | 761 | 230 | 232 | 26 | 12 | 334 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 442 | 356 | 94 | 22 | 1 | 24 | 74 | 105 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 264 | 405 | 534 | 938 | 270 | 306 | 24 | 17 | 410 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 80 | 71 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 350 | 408 | 758 | 141 | 383 | 29 | 9 | 342 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 555 | 485 | 124 | 29 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 138 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 256 | 340 | 501 | 841 | 245 | 294 | 25 | 10 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 72 | 60 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 380 | 417 | 797 | 150 | 304 | 18 | 14 | 356 | 131 | +3 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 522 | 444 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 67 | 108 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 368 | 480 | 847 | 216 | 296 | 21 | 13 | 372 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 416 | 369 | 86 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 103 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 310 | 388 | 697 | 154 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 309 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -7 | -6 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 102 | 83 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 289 | 422 | 458 | 879 | 169 | 370 | 25 | 18 | 397 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 25 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 435 | 550 | 985 | 200 | 333 | 12 | 12 | 399 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 99 | 90 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 224 | 300 | 524 | 133 | 207 | 30 | 5 | 234 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 343 | 303 | 77 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 33 | 100 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 338 | 538 | 876 | 284 | 308 | 29 | 10 | 380 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 409 | 338 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 61 | 130 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 237 | 366 | 450 | 816 | 213 | 319 | 32 | 15 | 364 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 587 | 519 | 117 | 29 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 146 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 225 | 304 | 376 | 680 | 150 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 91 | -6 | -0 | -9 | -13 | +13 | -1.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 216 | 191 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 230 | 310 | 393 | 703 | 162 | 287 | 29 | 6 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 346 | 522 | 868 | 261 | 327 | 27 | 8 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 100 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 242 | 330 | 572 | 154 | 203 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 442 | 376 | 74 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 54 | 147 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 314 | 386 | 699 | 189 | 261 | 33 | 12 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 555 | 504 | 105 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 173 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 271 | 373 | 644 | 165 | 264 | 31 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 72 | 60 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 380 | 417 | 797 | 150 | 304 | 18 | 14 | 361 | 131 | +3 | +0 | -2 | -6 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 522 | 463 | 110 | 17 | 3 | 23 | 48 | 128 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 317 | 436 | 753 | 199 | 269 | 25 | 9 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 416 | 372 | 88 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 103 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 307 | 392 | 700 | 156 | 290 | 25 | 7 | 310 | 96 | -2 | -0 | -7 | -6 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 102 | 89 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 270 | 363 | 427 | 790 | 157 | 342 | 27 | 12 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 25 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 391 | 524 | 915 | 190 | 292 | 16 | 8 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 99 | 91 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 224 | 297 | 521 | 132 | 207 | 30 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 343 | 318 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 120 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 251 | 381 | 631 | 189 | 255 | 35 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 409 | 357 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 154 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 176 | 278 | 322 | 600 | 146 | 252 | 38 | 10 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 214 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 229 | 310 | 388 | 697 | 159 | 305 | 29 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 207 | 61 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 295 | 389 | 512 | 901 | 217 | 349 | 21 | 9 | 393 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 622 | 535 | 103 | 23 | 1 | 24 | 72 | 205 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 302 | 374 | 676 | 181 | 256 | 33 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 622 | 514 | 132 | 29 | 2 | 31 | 93 | 154 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 383 | 502 | 885 | 245 | 304 | 25 | 15 | 389 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 555 | 504 | 105 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 173 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 271 | 373 | 644 | 165 | 273 | 31 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 555 | 485 | 124 | 29 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 138 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 256 | 340 | 501 | 841 | 245 | 294 | 25 | 10 | 364 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 594 | 523 | 126 | 18 | 4 | 25 | 58 | 141 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 325 | 434 | 759 | 193 | 278 | 24 | 10 | 329 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 594 | 504 | 133 | 22 | 4 | 25 | 77 | 121 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 369 | 472 | 841 | 208 | 297 | 20 | 13 | 370 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 482 | 117 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 136 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 243 | 318 | 398 | 716 | 156 | 301 | 25 | 8 | 320 | 102 | +2 | -0 | -7 | -6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 543 | 472 | 117 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 55 | 131 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 336 | 407 | 743 | 159 | 305 | 24 | 10 | 330 | 102 | +2 | -0 | -7 | -6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 99 | 91 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 224 | 297 | 521 | 132 | 203 | 30 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB RAW | Detroit Tigers | — | 99 | 90 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 224 | 300 | 524 | 133 | 207 | 30 | 5 | 234 | 48 | -6 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 343 | 318 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 120 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 192 | 251 | 381 | 631 | 189 | 255 | 35 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 343 | 303 | 77 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 33 | 100 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 338 | 538 | 876 | 284 | 308 | 29 | 10 | 380 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 409 | 357 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 154 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 176 | 278 | 322 | 600 | 146 | 257 | 38 | 10 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 409 | 338 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 19 | 61 | 130 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 237 | 366 | 450 | 816 | 213 | 319 | 32 | 15 | 364 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 215 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 310 | 386 | 696 | 158 | 291 | 29 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 622 | 533 | 103 | 23 | 1 | 24 | 72 | 205 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 302 | 375 | 677 | 182 | 250 | 33 | 12 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 555 | 507 | 105 | 26 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 173 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 271 | 371 | 641 | 164 | 264 | 31 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 594 | 524 | 126 | 18 | 4 | 25 | 58 | 141 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 325 | 433 | 758 | 193 | 273 | 24 | 10 | 329 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 543 | 485 | 117 | 28 | 1 | 15 | 45 | 136 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 318 | 396 | 714 | 155 | 300 | 25 | 8 | 320 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 99 | 92 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 224 | 293 | 518 | 130 | 207 | 30 | 5 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 343 | 315 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 120 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 251 | 384 | 635 | 190 | 255 | 35 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 409 | 356 | 63 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 154 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 177 | 278 | 323 | 601 | 146 | 252 | 38 | 10 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 587 | 519 | 117 | 29 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 146 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 225 | 304 | 376 | 680 | 150 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -9 | -13 | +13 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 575 | 130 | 32 | 2 | 17 | 54 | 162 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 304 | 377 | 682 | 151 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 302 | 86 | -7 | -0 | -10 | -15 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3407 | 3024 | 639 | 126 | 17 | 118 | 292 | 1029 | 60 | 24 | 9 | 211 | 294 | 381 | 675 | 170 | 273 | 30 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -6 | -0 | -9 | -13 | +13 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 23 | 56 | 196 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 293 | 383 | 676 | 172 | 272 | 30 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -7 | -0 | -10 | -15 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 409 PAwOBA .357 → .266 (−90)K% 31.8% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.78% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.91% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 19.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷1.179 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.13% | ÷0.939 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 6.68% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .266; ISO .213 → .151; BABIP .319 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 343 PAwOBA .365 → .273 (−92)K% 29.2% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.15% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.038 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.72% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 16.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.46% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .365 → .273; ISO .284 → .196; BABIP .308 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 102 PAwOBA .384 → .344 (−41)K% 24.5% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷1.056 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 29.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 2.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.888 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 6.64% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 119, K 111, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .384 → .344; ISO .169 → .167; BABIP .370 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 25 PAwOBA .423 → .385 (−37)K% 12.0% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.005 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 25.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.037 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.968 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.963 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 5.20% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 101, K 101, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .423 → .385; ISO .200 → .193; BABIP .333 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 522 PAwOBA .365 → .324 (−40)K% 20.7% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 19.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.038 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.893 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 6.65% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 108, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .365 → .324; ISO .216 → .205; BABIP .296 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAErie SeaWolves · 555 PAwOBA .358 → .278 (−81)K% 24.9% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.86% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.44% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.094 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.07% | ÷1.259 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .358 → .278; ISO .245 → .170; BABIP .294 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 442 PAwOBA .402 → .305 (−97)K% 23.8% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.76% | ÷1.011 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.74% | ÷1.026 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 12.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.73% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.76% | ÷1.029 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.145 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.56% | ÷1.161 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.24% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 129, K 102, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .402 → .305; ISO .270 → .195; BABIP .306 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAErie SeaWolves · 100 PAwOBA .328 → .254 (−74)K% 26.0% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.03% | ÷1.045 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.973 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.127 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 7.20% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 125, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .254; ISO .230 → .168; BABIP .232 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).