Kevin Heller
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 23 | AA/ABOS | 155 | .234/.323/.336 | 2 | 5 | 39 | — | .184/.258/.262 |
| 2014 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 417 | .246/.370/.382 | 7 | 12 | 59 | — | .194/.287/.301 |
| 2015 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 427 | .279/.398/.407 | 7 | 13 | 72 | — | .216/.304/.320 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 364 | 342 | 706 | 79 | 333 | 18 | 14 | 327 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 23 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 261 | 200 | 461 | 50 | 214 | 26 | 13 | 226 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 132 | 117 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 248 | 333 | 359 | 692 | 111 | 329 | 25 | 8 | 317 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 36 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 306 | 200 | 506 | 33 | 227 | 22 | 17 | 252 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 381 | 316 | 80 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 90 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 253 | 376 | 399 | 774 | 146 | 330 | 24 | 12 | 351 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 267 | 184 | 451 | 53 | 192 | 27 | 8 | 214 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 379 | 313 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 49 | 86 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 297 | 413 | 435 | 848 | 137 | 384 | 23 | 13 | 381 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 44 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 250 | 225 | 475 | 50 | 254 | 27 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 190 | 408 | 48 | 206 | 30 | 9 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 132 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 192 | 265 | 275 | 540 | 83 | 280 | 33 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 250 | 188 | 438 | 31 | 212 | 28 | 11 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 381 | 334 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 128 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 198 | 291 | 311 | 602 | 114 | 284 | 34 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 244 | 179 | 424 | 51 | 178 | 33 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 379 | 334 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 127 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 228 | 312 | 338 | 650 | 111 | 328 | 34 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 44 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 250 | 225 | 475 | 50 | 250 | 27 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 44 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 364 | 342 | 706 | 79 | 333 | 18 | 14 | 327 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 155 | 141 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 184 | 258 | 262 | 520 | 78 | 276 | 34 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 155 | 137 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 234 | 323 | 336 | 658 | 102 | 312 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 366 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 138 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 194 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 107 | 290 | 33 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 417 | 346 | 85 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 51 | 98 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 246 | 370 | 382 | 751 | 136 | 321 | 24 | 12 | 343 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 427 | 373 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 143 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 217 | 305 | 322 | 626 | 105 | 325 | 33 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 427 | 351 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 53 | 99 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 279 | 398 | 407 | 805 | 128 | 364 | 23 | 12 | 362 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 44 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 250 | 225 | 475 | 50 | 254 | 27 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 155 | 140 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 186 | 258 | 264 | 522 | 79 | 269 | 34 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 417 | 366 | 71 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 138 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 194 | 287 | 301 | 588 | 107 | 278 | 33 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 427 | 377 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 143 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 215 | 305 | 318 | 623 | 103 | 311 | 33 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1043 | 920 | 185 | 38 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 345 | 38 | 30 | 11 | 201 | 288 | 300 | 588 | 99 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 258 | 61 | -49 | +2 | +0 | -11 | +23 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 115 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 215 | 24 | 19 | 7 | 201 | 289 | 297 | 586 | 96 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 258 | 61 | -30 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 379 PAwOBA .375 → .287 (−88)K% 22.7% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.69% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷1.036 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.43% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 2.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.07% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 25.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.93% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.841 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 3.20% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .375 → .287; ISO .137 → .117; BABIP .384 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 48 PAwOBA .214 → .183 (−31)K% 27.1% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.08% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 5.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 11.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 6.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .214 → .183; ISO .053 → .047; BABIP .192 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 381 PAwOBA .345 → .261 (−84)K% 23.6% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.62% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.81% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.46% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 3.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 19.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .345 → .261; ISO .146 → .113; BABIP .330 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 36 PAwOBA .247 → .199 (−48)K% 22.2% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 3.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .247 → .199; ISO .033 → .028; BABIP .227 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AGreenville Drive · 132 PAwOBA .309 → .233 (−76)K% 25.0% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷0.986 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 4.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.79% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 2.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.980 | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.124 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×0.980 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.973 | ×0.980 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.967 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 1.98% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .309 → .233; ISO .111 → .080; BABIP .329 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 23 PAwOBA .221 → .185 (−36)K% 26.1% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.012 | 14.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 6.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .221 → .185; ISO .050 → .042; BABIP .214 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKGCL Red Sox · 44 PAwOBA .319 → .220 (−99)K% 18.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 8.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .220; ISO .079 → .053; BABIP .333 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).