Skye Bolt
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAAOAK | 104 | .326/.385/.526 | 4 | 1 | 92 | — | .268/.317/.412 | |
| 2022 | 28 | MLBOakland Athle… | 116 | .198/.261/.330 | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0.1 | ||
| 2023 | 29 | AAAMIL | 248 | .257/.363/.367 | 3 | 3 | 77 | — | .232/.310/.318 | |
| 2024 | 30 | AAAATL | 127 | .236/.347/.349 | 2 | 1 | 57 | — | .196/.274/.268 | |
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | — | 402 | 342 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 88 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 231 | 327 | 345 | 672 | 114 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 301 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 496 | 432 | 105 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 53 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 243 | 330 | 435 | 765 | 192 | 314 | 27 | 11 | 334 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 315 | 285 | 73 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 75 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 256 | 325 | 446 | 770 | 189 | 315 | 24 | 9 | 340 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 209 | 169 | 45 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 47 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 266 | 387 | 521 | 908 | 254 | 308 | 22 | 15 | 388 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 85 | 73 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 247 | 353 | 493 | 846 | 247 | 327 | 26 | 14 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 347 | 305 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 94 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 269 | 352 | 459 | 811 | 190 | 351 | 27 | 11 | 357 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 60 | 57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 103 | 158 | 261 | 70 | 98 | 25 | 2 | 113 | -35 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 199 | 163 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 43 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 387 | 495 | 650 | 1.145 | 264 | 482 | 22 | 16 | 493 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 116 | 106 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 198 | 261 | 330 | 591 | 132 | 233 | 26 | 6 | 266 | 71 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 104 | 95 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 326 | 385 | 526 | 911 | 200 | 397 | 22 | 7 | 402 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 248 | 210 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 363 | 367 | 730 | 110 | 340 | 24 | 13 | 331 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 106 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 347 | 349 | 696 | 113 | 311 | 26 | 14 | 313 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 176 | 163 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 160 | 208 | 270 | 478 | 110 | 184 | 26 | 5 | 214 | 31 | -15 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +4 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 402 | 358 | 66 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 121 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 184 | 253 | 277 | 530 | 92 | 242 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 496 | 452 | 86 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 178 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 190 | 250 | 319 | 569 | 128 | 278 | 36 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 315 | 293 | 60 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 94 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 205 | 258 | 348 | 606 | 143 | 274 | 30 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 209 | 180 | 39 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 65 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 217 | 309 | 406 | 714 | 189 | 266 | 31 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 347 | 315 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 122 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 200 | 267 | 327 | 594 | 127 | 295 | 35 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 60 | 57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 88 | 103 | 158 | 261 | 70 | 98 | 25 | 2 | 116 | -35 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 199 | 175 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 314 | 394 | 520 | 914 | 206 | 404 | 26 | 10 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 116 | 106 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 198 | 261 | 330 | 591 | 132 | 233 | 26 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 104 | 97 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 317 | 412 | 730 | 144 | 338 | 26 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 248 | 220 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 310 | 318 | 628 | 86 | 324 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 268 | 542 | 71 | 278 | 32 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 402 | 358 | 66 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 121 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 184 | 253 | 277 | 530 | 92 | 254 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | Beloit Snappers | — | 402 | 342 | 79 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 88 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 231 | 327 | 345 | 672 | 114 | 285 | 22 | 10 | 301 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 496 | 452 | 86 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 178 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 190 | 250 | 319 | 569 | 128 | 286 | 36 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 496 | 432 | 105 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 53 | 134 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 243 | 330 | 435 | 765 | 192 | 314 | 27 | 11 | 334 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 609 | 552 | 115 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 185 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 208 | 275 | 368 | 643 | 159 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 609 | 527 | 136 | 30 | 11 | 21 | 70 | 144 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 258 | 350 | 476 | 826 | 218 | 314 | 24 | 11 | 360 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 347 | 315 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 122 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 200 | 267 | 327 | 594 | 127 | 298 | 35 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 347 | 305 | 82 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 94 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 269 | 352 | 459 | 811 | 190 | 351 | 27 | 11 | 357 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 232 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 67 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 259 | 328 | 431 | 759 | 172 | 329 | 26 | 8 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 259 | 220 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 58 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 309 | 406 | 523 | 929 | 214 | 379 | 22 | 13 | 405 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 203 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 232 | 288 | 369 | 657 | 138 | 286 | 26 | 5 | 287 | 81 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 220 | 201 | 52 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 259 | 320 | 423 | 743 | 164 | 312 | 24 | 6 | 330 | 81 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 248 | 220 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 310 | 318 | 628 | 86 | 333 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 248 | 210 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 363 | 367 | 730 | 110 | 340 | 24 | 13 | 331 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 268 | 542 | 71 | 288 | 32 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 106 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 347 | 349 | 696 | 113 | 311 | 26 | 14 | 313 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 402 | 366 | 66 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 121 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 180 | 253 | 270 | 524 | 90 | 242 | 30 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 496 | 457 | 86 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 178 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 188 | 250 | 315 | 565 | 127 | 278 | 36 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 609 | 553 | 115 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 185 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 208 | 275 | 367 | 642 | 159 | 271 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 347 | 315 | 63 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 122 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 200 | 267 | 327 | 594 | 127 | 295 | 35 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 259 | 233 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 67 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 258 | 328 | 429 | 757 | 172 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 202 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 57 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 233 | 288 | 371 | 659 | 139 | 283 | 26 | 5 | 287 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 248 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 74 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 310 | 317 | 627 | 86 | 324 | 30 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 114 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 274 | 263 | 537 | 70 | 278 | 32 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 127 | 114 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 274 | 263 | 537 | 70 | 278 | 32 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 176 | 163 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 160 | 208 | 270 | 478 | 110 | 184 | 26 | 5 | 214 | 69 | -15 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +4 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 95 | 11 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 166 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 158 | 207 | 266 | 472 | 108 | 182 | 26 | 5 | 214 | 69 | -54 | +5 | +6 | +6 | +14 | -2.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2708 | 2444 | 510 | 107 | 21 | 55 | 200 | 845 | 26 | 69 | 24 | 209 | 276 | 337 | 613 | 128 | 289 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -15 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +4 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 122 | 26 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 203 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 208 | 275 | 336 | 610 | 128 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -54 | +5 | +6 | +6 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 127 PAwOBA .313 → .253 (−60)K% 26.0% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.98% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.17% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 9.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.66% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×0.972 | 22.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.48% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.972 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×0.972 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .313 → .253; ISO .113 → .087; BABIP .311 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANashville Sounds · 248 PAwOBA .327 → .282 (−46)K% 24.2% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.19% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.31% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×1.019 | ×0.982 | 25.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.982 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×0.982 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .327 → .282; ISO .110 → .094; BABIP .340 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 104 PAwOBA .390 → .304 (−87)K% 22.1% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 25.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .390 → .304; ISO .200 → .133; BABIP .397 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 199 PAwOBA .482 → .392 (−90)K% 21.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.61% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.58% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.156 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 28.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.60% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 131, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 99, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .482 → .392; ISO .264 → .220; BABIP .482 → .404. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 347 PAwOBA .349 → .264 (−85)K% 27.1% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.09% | ÷0.990 | ×1.290 | — | — | 35.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.66% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 7.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.22% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.102 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.21% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 3.75% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .349 → .264; ISO .190 → .133; BABIP .351 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMidland RockHounds · 315 PAwOBA .330 → .268 (−62)K% 23.8% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.25% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 18.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.041 | ×0.840 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.922 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.18% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .330 → .268; ISO .189 → .155; BABIP .315 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Stockton Ports · 209 PAwOBA .385 → .300 (−85)K% 22.5% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.49% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.83% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.926 | ×0.820 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.006 | ×0.760 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.38% | ÷1.244 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 5.39% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .385 → .300; ISO .254 → .191; BABIP .308 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Stockton Ports · 496 PAwOBA .328 → .248 (−79)K% 27.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.02% | ÷1.010 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷1.115 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷0.972 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 1.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.03% | ÷1.397 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 3.31% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 102, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .328 → .248; ISO .192 → .136; BABIP .314 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .