Preston Beck
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAATEX | 261 | .245/.327/.319 | 1 | 2 | 44 | — | .201/.257/.264 |
| 2018 | 27 | AATEX | 488 | .260/.329/.410 | 13 | 0 | 55 | — | .206/.257/.309 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 479 | .258/.344/.412 | 11 | 3 | 58 | — | .207/.269/.318 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 322 | 79 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 62 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 245 | 349 | 342 | 690 | 96 | 291 | 16 | 12 | 313 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 30 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 467 | 417 | 883 | 83 | 400 | 13 | 17 | 407 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 527 | 436 | 111 | 33 | 1 | 11 | 80 | 93 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 255 | 379 | 411 | 789 | 156 | 299 | 18 | 15 | 356 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 386 | 343 | 77 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 60 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 224 | 305 | 327 | 632 | 102 | 256 | 16 | 10 | 287 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 137 | 121 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 298 | 380 | 504 | 884 | 207 | 355 | 18 | 11 | 389 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 132 | 122 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 311 | 385 | 696 | 131 | 312 | 19 | 8 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 261 | 235 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 41 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 289 | 358 | 477 | 834 | 187 | 326 | 16 | 8 | 367 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 261 | 229 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 74 | 294 | 17 | 10 | 294 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 488 | 442 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 260 | 329 | 410 | 738 | 149 | 304 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 58 | 50 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 340 | 421 | 440 | 861 | 100 | 395 | 14 | 12 | 381 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 421 | 372 | 92 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 87 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 333 | 409 | 742 | 161 | 295 | 21 | 11 | 332 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 380 | 340 | 67 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 86 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 197 | 268 | 274 | 542 | 76 | 243 | 23 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 30 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 367 | 346 | 713 | 77 | 335 | 17 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 527 | 466 | 97 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 138 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 124 | 265 | 26 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 386 | 355 | 66 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 71 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 186 | 245 | 265 | 510 | 79 | 219 | 18 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 137 | 126 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 299 | 413 | 712 | 175 | 294 | 25 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 132 | 126 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 258 | 333 | 591 | 111 | 282 | 24 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 261 | 243 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 243 | 292 | 379 | 671 | 136 | 283 | 18 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 261 | 239 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 201 | 257 | 264 | 520 | 63 | 247 | 21 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 488 | 456 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 124 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 206 | 257 | 309 | 566 | 103 | 261 | 25 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 58 | 52 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 368 | 404 | 772 | 96 | 340 | 17 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 421 | 388 | 75 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 255 | 307 | 561 | 113 | 244 | 26 | 7 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 366 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 91 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 202 | 275 | 279 | 554 | 77 | 257 | 22 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 410 | 346 | 87 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 66 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 251 | 357 | 347 | 704 | 95 | 299 | 16 | 13 | 320 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 527 | 466 | 97 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 138 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 294 | 333 | 627 | 124 | 271 | 26 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 527 | 436 | 111 | 33 | 1 | 11 | 80 | 93 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 255 | 379 | 411 | 789 | 156 | 299 | 18 | 15 | 356 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 481 | 96 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 105 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 260 | 304 | 563 | 104 | 239 | 20 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 523 | 464 | 113 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 85 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 244 | 325 | 373 | 698 | 129 | 281 | 16 | 10 | 314 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 368 | 87 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 80 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 283 | 364 | 647 | 128 | 287 | 20 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 357 | 99 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 66 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 277 | 342 | 445 | 787 | 168 | 322 | 17 | 8 | 348 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 261 | 239 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 201 | 257 | 264 | 520 | 63 | 253 | 21 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 261 | 229 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 327 | 319 | 646 | 74 | 294 | 17 | 10 | 294 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 488 | 456 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 124 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 206 | 257 | 309 | 566 | 103 | 262 | 25 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 488 | 442 | 115 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 260 | 329 | 410 | 738 | 149 | 304 | 19 | 8 | 330 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 440 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 118 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 266 | 314 | 580 | 109 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 422 | 109 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 95 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 258 | 344 | 412 | 756 | 154 | 308 | 20 | 11 | 338 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 410 | 370 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 91 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 200 | 275 | 276 | 551 | 76 | 250 | 22 | 8 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 527 | 465 | 97 | 26 | 1 | 10 | 50 | 138 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 209 | 294 | 333 | 628 | 125 | 265 | 26 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 479 | 96 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 105 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 260 | 305 | 564 | 104 | 239 | 20 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 366 | 87 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 80 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 283 | 366 | 649 | 128 | 283 | 20 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 261 | 241 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 199 | 257 | 261 | 518 | 62 | 247 | 21 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 488 | 454 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 124 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 207 | 257 | 311 | 567 | 104 | 261 | 25 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 439 | 90 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 118 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 266 | 314 | 581 | 109 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3081 | 2816 | 586 | 118 | 23 | 43 | 213 | 712 | 30 | 37 | 17 | 208 | 271 | 312 | 583 | 104 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -147 | +1 | +0 | -33 | +67 | -11.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 124 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 45 | 150 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 209 | 271 | 313 | 584 | 104 | 262 | 23 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -31 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 421 PAwOBA .324 → .245 (−78)K% 20.7% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.67% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.45% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 17.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷0.960 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.86% | ÷1.208 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .245; ISO .161 → .115; BABIP .295 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANashville Sounds · 58 PAwOBA .378 → .316 (−63)K% 13.8% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.95% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.982 | 27.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.069 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .378 → .316; ISO .100 → .081; BABIP .395 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 488 PAwOBA .321 → .250 (−72)K% 19.3% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.26% | ÷0.922 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.021 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.989 | ×0.968 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | ×0.989 | ×0.968 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.989 | ×0.968 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.088 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 84, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .321 → .250; ISO .149 → .107; BABIP .304 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARound Rock Express · 261 PAwOBA .288 → .233 (−55)K% 17.2% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.37% | ÷1.039 | ×0.900 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.039 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.810 | ×0.989 | ×1.003 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.117 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.38% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 109, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .288 → .233; ISO .074 → .057; BABIP .294 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 261 PAwOBA .355 → .294 (−61)K% 15.7% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.28% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 20.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.062 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.988 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.065 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .355 → .294; ISO .187 → .144; BABIP .326 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARound Rock Express · 132 PAwOBA .300 → .250 (−50)K% 18.9% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷0.949 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 19.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.28% | ÷1.079 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.839 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .300 → .250; ISO .131 → .104; BABIP .312 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 386 PAwOBA .280 → .232 (−48)K% 15.5% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.54% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.59% | ÷0.976 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 17.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.24% | ÷1.026 | ×0.840 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.990 | ×0.998 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.946 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 109, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 107, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .280 → .232; ISO .102 → .086; BABIP .256 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+High Desert Mavericks · 137 PAwOBA .379 → .293 (−86)K% 18.2% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.25% | ÷0.973 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷1.041 | ×0.910 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 17.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.046 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 9.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.013 | ×0.978 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 108, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .379 → .293; ISO .207 → .163; BABIP .355 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).