Lance McCullers Jr.

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MIX3 levels	12	12	61	3.25	3.61	25.9%	11.2%	1.0	K 25.0% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.92
2025	31	MIX3 levels	21	18	73	5.55	4.74	23.6%	13.5%	0.1	K 22.3% · BB 14.2% · FIP 5.08
2026	32	MIX2 levels	13	11	55	5.73	4.30	24.5%	12.9%	0.4	K 24.6% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIL	9	9	54	5.06	5.10	23.0%	13.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIL	8	8	49	5.27	5.41	22.1%	14.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ	35	MLBMIL	7	7	44	5.55	5.74	21.1%	14.8%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%67

K%63

xwOBA vs36

FB Velo10

CompsJuan Delgadillo (age 32) · Chuck Smith (age 31) · Manuel Flores (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA5.06

FIP5.10

K%23.0%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL3535

CMD3540

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

FB+1.7 (26%)

CT+1.5 (27%)

CH (15%)

SL (17%)

SI (22%)

CU (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	25.9%	8.7%	17.2%	1.8%	2.68	2.98	+3.8
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	158	649	177	55	11	93%	5.4	27.3%	8.5%	18.8%	1.7%	2.68	2.81	+4.2
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.1%	12.5%	17.6%	1.5%	3.03	2.94	+2.2
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	89	383	117	46	6	100%	5.6	30.5%	12.0%	18.5%	1.6%	3.03	2.90	+2.2
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	25.8%	7.6%	18.2%	1.6%	4.33	2.77	+3.4
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	127	547	135	44	8	100%	5.3	24.7%	8.0%	16.6%	1.5%	4.33	2.83	+3.3
2018	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.31	+2.5
2018	24	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	25	22	128	527	142	50	12	88%	5.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.5%	2.3%	3.86	3.27	+2.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.3%	3.93	3.38	+1.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	11	11	55	227	56	20	5	100%	5.0	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.2%	3.93	3.34	+1.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	2.0%	3.14	3.30	+3.3
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	166	698	189	76	13	100%	5.7	27.1%	10.9%	16.2%	1.9%	3.14	3.21	+3.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.92	+0.7
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	12	12	61	259	67	29	6	100%	5.1	25.9%	11.2%	14.7%	2.3%	3.25	3.61	+1.0
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	-0.2
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	22.3%	14.2%	8.0%	3.8%	5.55	5.08	-0.2
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	18	73	348	82	47	11	86%	3.5	23.6%	13.5%	10.1%	3.2%	5.55	4.74	+0.1
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.2
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.6%	13.8%	10.8%	3.4%	5.73	4.65	+0.2
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	55	241	59	31	7	85%	4.2	24.5%	12.9%	11.6%	2.9%	5.73	4.30	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	148	818	3486	909	358	74	95%	5.2	26.1%	10.3%	15.8%	2.1%	3.85	3.37	+15.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIL	9	9	54	228	52	31	8	100%	6.0	23.0%	13.7%	9.3%	3.3%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	45	29	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.27	5.41	-0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIL	7	7	44	185	39	27	7	100%	6.2	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	4.0%	5.55	5.74	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	49	207	46	29	8	100%	6.1	22.1%	14.2%	7.9%	3.6%	5.27	5.41	-0.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	44	186	39	27	7	100%	6.3	21.1%	14.8%	6.3%	4.0%	5.55	5.74	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	163	910	3876	993	414	89	95%	5.3	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	2.3%	4.01	3.55	+15.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	852	218	91	20	95%	5.3	25.6%	10.7%	14.9%	2.3%	4.01	3.55	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		180	170	912	3879	1013	407	85	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	851	222	89	19	94%	5.1	26.1%	10.5%	15.6%	2.2%	3.72	3.43	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lance McCullers Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	23.0%	13.7%	3.3%	—	5.57	21.6%	7.1%	92	+0.47	—	—	—
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	62
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	62
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	59
Scott Carroll R 2017 · 5.71 FIP	32	SP	5.71	14.4%	8.6%	5.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	377	59
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	57
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	56
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	55
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	55
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	54
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	54
Mitch Atkins R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	31	SP	4.77	14.3%	8.1%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	215	53
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	52
Cesar Carrillo R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	33	SP	4.97	12.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.320	6.22	11.0%	1.8%	66	+1.25	4.14	336	52
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	52
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	51
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	51
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	51
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	51
J.D. Martin R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	33	SP	4.85	9.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.302	5.42	12.2%	-0.2%	249	+0.57	4.79	414	51
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	80	25.5%	11.0%	0.91	4.07
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67
Greg Harris ('81-'95, 16 WAR*)	7.3	105	24.1%*	10.0%*	1.02*	3.79*
Jim Gott ('82-'95, 10 WAR*)	5.6	93	23.6%*	9.7%*	0.91*	4.20*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36