Paul Blackburn

P New York Yankees

Age 33 RHP 6'1" / 196 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	18	16	86	5.02	4.47	17.9%	7.3%	0.4	K 18.7% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.45
2025	31	MIX5 levels	27	16	94	4.39	3.69	22.7%	7.8%	1.4	K 18.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.59
2026	32	MLBNYY	62	2	85	1.59	3.68	20.5%	9.5%	0.9
2027PROJ	33	MLBNYY	10	10	63	4.10	4.28	19.7%	8.5%	0.5
2028PROJ	34	MLBNYY	10	10	58	4.39	4.58	18.8%	9.0%	0.2
2029PROJ	35	MLBNYY	9	9	52	4.71	4.92	17.8%	9.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs66

FB Velo52

K%38

Whiff%32

CompsMitch Lively (age 31) · Jared Fernandez (age 31) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10899vR 91

ERA4.10

FIP4.28

K%19.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

CT+0.8 (20%)

SL (8%)

CH (22%)

SI (34%)

CU (14%)

FB-2.6 (37%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	90	371	63	22	3	100%	5.0	13.1%	6.8%	6.3%	1.1%	3.11	3.48	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	18	18	90	371	63	22	3	100%	5.0	17.0%	5.9%	11.1%	0.8%	3.11	2.87	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	26	25	143	587	99	35	8	96%	5.5	13.7%	6.6%	7.1%	1.6%	3.27	3.68	—
2016	22	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	26	25	143	587	99	35	8	96%	5.5	16.9%	6.0%	10.9%	1.4%	3.27	3.18	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	138	566	78	42	11	96%	5.5	12.6%	7.7%	4.9%	2.3%	3.12	4.28	+1.0
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	138	566	78	42	11	96%	5.5	13.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.9%	3.12	3.92	+1.6
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	31	138	20	7	2	100%	4.5	16.0%	5.0%	10.9%	1.8%	7.18	3.40	+0.6
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	31	138	20	7	2	100%	4.5	14.5%	5.1%	9.4%	1.4%	7.18	3.32	+0.6
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	144	596	100	38	21	82%	5.1	14.9%	6.7%	8.3%	3.5%	4.82	4.62	+0.5
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	144	596	100	38	21	82%	5.1	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.40	+0.8
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	1	1	2	14	2	2	0	100%	2.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.70	+0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	1	1	2	14	2	2	0	100%	2.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.96	+0.0
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	127	575	106	37	16	96%	4.9	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	3.2%	5.24	4.26	+1.0
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	127	575	106	37	16	96%	4.9	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	2.8%	5.24	3.94	+1.5
2022	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	21	21	111	467	89	28	15	100%	5.3	19.1%	6.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.28	4.19	+0.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	21	21	111	467	89	28	15	100%	5.3	19.1%	6.0%	13.1%	3.2%	4.28	4.01	+1.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	122	554	114	48	14	96%	4.5	20.8%	8.6%	12.2%	2.8%	4.88	3.99	+1.3
2023	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	122	554	114	48	14	96%	4.5	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	2.5%	4.88	3.91	+1.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	16	86	369	66	27	13	89%	4.8	18.7%	6.6%	12.0%	3.8%	5.02	4.45	+0.4
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	16	86	369	66	27	13	89%	4.8	18.7%	6.6%	12.0%	3.8%	5.02	4.45	+0.4
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	16	86	369	66	27	13	89%	4.8	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	3.5%	5.02	4.47	+0.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	16	94	396	90	31	11	59%	3.5	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	2.2%	4.39	3.59	+1.5
2025	31	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	16	94	396	90	31	11	59%	3.5	18.5%	6.7%	11.8%	2.2%	4.39	3.59	+1.5
2025	31	MIX RAW	5 levels	27	16	94	396	90	31	11	59%	3.5	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	2.8%	4.39	3.69	+1.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	62	2	85	336	69	32	7	3%	1.4	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.0%	1.59	3.64	+0.9
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	62	2	85	336	69	32	7	3%	1.4	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.0%	1.59	3.64	+0.9
2026	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	62	2	85	336	69	32	7	3%	1.4	20.5%	9.5%	11.0%	2.1%	1.59	3.68	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			163	88	552	2361	432	173	69	54%	3.4	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.10	+5.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	NYY	10	10	63	266	52	23	7	100%	6.3	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	2.5%	4.10	4.28	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYY	10	10	58	243	46	22	7	100%	5.8	18.8%	9.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.58	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	52	218	39	21	7	100%	5.7	17.8%	9.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.92	-0.0
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	58	245	46	22	7	100%	5.8	18.8%	9.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.58	+0.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	52	220	39	21	7	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.6%	8.2%	3.2%	4.71	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		181	106	661	2822	516	216	83	59%	3.7	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.13	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		55	32	200	853	156	65	25	59%	3.7	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.46	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		286	204	1174	4969	825	353	130	71%	4.1	16.6%	7.1%	9.5%	2.6%	4.16	4.04	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	847	141	60	22	71%	4.1	16.6%	7.1%	9.5%	2.6%	4.16	4.04	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paul Blackburn (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	19.7%	8.5%	2.5%	—	4.74	18.3%	9.0%	109	+0.46	—	—	—
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	67
Jared Fernandez R 2003 · 3.57 FIP	31	SP-	3.57	11.8%	6.2%	1.2%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	101	63
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	62
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	62
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	62
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	61
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	59
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	59
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	59
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	56
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	56
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	55
Eder Llamas R 2017 · 3.23 FIP	31	SP	3.23	11.3%	6.7%	0.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	171	54
Josh Lindblom R 2020 · 3.50 FIP	33	SP	3.50	27.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.308	4.46	21.7%	13.8%	255	+0.96	1.83	480	54
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	54
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	53
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	52
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	52
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	52
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	66	18.4%	7.9%	1.12	4.43
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Steve Crawford ('80-'91, 3 WAR*)	2.8	63	18.2%*	7.4%*	1.04*	4.28*
Morrie Martin ('49-'59, 3 WAR*)	3.0	76	17.2%*	8.3%*	1.25*	4.45*
Ted Power ('81-'93, 8 WAR*)	5.8	97	18.4%*	8.9%*	1.05*	4.38*
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Ross Detwiler ('22)	3.8	68	15.3%	8.2%	1.11	4.56