Tim Lopes

Pos2B

B/TR/R

Born1994-06-24

Age (2027)33

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2023

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2021	27	AAAMIL	370	.226/.309/.401	11	9	57	—	.188/.254/.312
2022	28	AAACOL	299	.271/.337/.451	9	10	62	—	.209/.265/.330
2023	29	AAASD	550	.282/.379/.421	13	42	82	—	.242/.315/.337

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

Speed73

xwOBA25

Avg EV16

Barrel%10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	244	215	68	11	12	0	24	29	1	7	3	316	388	479	867	163	358	12	10	376	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	365	334	92	15	3	1	20	45	2	10	7	275	320	347	668	72	313	12	5	295	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	High Desert Mavericks	—	470	421	100	16	7	4	37	81	6	18	7	238	308	337	645	100	285	17	8	290	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	547	478	132	27	4	2	41	96	8	35	18	276	343	362	705	86	337	18	7	310	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Jackson Generals	—	581	510	145	23	5	1	54	88	7	26	6	284	361	355	716	71	338	15	9	323	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	526	469	127	27	4	7	49	86	2	19	9	271	342	390	732	119	314	16	9	327	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	385	354	98	19	3	2	26	58	1	18	8	277	328	364	692	88	322	15	7	310	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	128	111	30	7	0	1	15	29	1	6	3	270	362	360	723	90	354	23	12	330	111	+2	+0	+0	-6	+3	-0.1
2019	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	420	374	113	31	2	10	36	72	3	26	9	302	368	476	844	174	344	17	9	368	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	151	143	34	12	0	2	6	34	2	5	0	238	278	364	642	126	299	23	4	287	82	-3	+1	-4	-2	+3	-0.5
2021	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	370	327	74	16	4	11	34	92	5	9	3	226	309	401	709	174	276	25	9	314	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	299	266	72	15	3	9	23	69	4	10	5	271	337	451	788	180	328	23	8	343	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	550	475	134	23	2	13	72	123	2	42	8	282	379	421	800	139	356	22	13	361	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	279	254	64	19	0	3	21	63	3	11	3	252	317	362	679	110	323	23	8	306	94	-2	+1	-4	-7	+6	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	244	224	52	8	8	0	15	42	1	7	3	232	283	339	623	107	276	17	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	365	341	92	13	3	1	13	63	2	10	7	270	301	334	635	65	310	17	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	470	429	88	13	5	3	29	118	6	18	7	205	265	280	545	75	269	25	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	547	490	129	26	4	2	29	130	8	35	18	263	315	345	660	82	328	24	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	581	526	151	26	4	1	38	107	7	26	6	287	343	357	701	70	348	18	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	526	483	124	24	5	5	35	104	2	19	9	257	310	358	668	101	308	20	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	385	360	97	17	3	2	20	70	1	18	8	269	310	350	660	81	317	18	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	128	111	30	7	0	1	15	29	1	6	3	270	362	360	723	90	354	23	12	332	111	+2	+0	+0	-6	+3	-0.1
2019	25	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	420	385	95	24	1	8	25	94	3	26	9	247	298	377	674	130	295	22	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	151	143	34	12	0	2	6	34	2	5	0	238	278	364	642	126	299	23	4	290	82	-3	+1	-4	-2	+3	-0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	370	336	63	12	3	8	25	108	5	9	3	188	254	312	567	125	243	29	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	299	273	57	11	2	6	17	83	4	10	5	209	265	330	595	121	265	28	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	550	496	120	19	2	8	51	150	2	42	8	242	315	337	652	95	328	27	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	244	224	52	8	8	0	15	42	1	7	3	232	283	339	623	107	280	17	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	—	244	215	68	11	12	0	24	29	1	7	3	316	388	479	867	163	358	12	10	376	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	365	341	92	13	3	1	13	63	2	10	7	270	301	334	635	65	325	17	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	—	365	334	92	15	3	1	20	45	2	10	7	275	320	347	668	72	313	12	5	295	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	470	429	88	13	5	3	29	118	6	18	7	205	265	280	545	75	275	25	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ RAW	High Desert Mavericks	—	470	421	100	16	7	4	37	81	6	18	7	238	308	337	645	100	285	17	8	290	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	547	490	129	26	4	2	29	130	8	35	18	263	315	345	660	82	349	24	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Bakersfield Blaze	—	547	478	132	27	4	2	41	96	8	35	18	276	343	362	705	86	337	18	7	310	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	581	526	151	26	4	1	38	107	7	26	6	287	343	357	701	70	355	18	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	581	510	145	23	5	1	54	88	7	26	6	284	361	355	716	71	338	15	9	323	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	526	483	124	24	5	5	35	104	2	19	9	257	310	358	668	101	313	20	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	526	469	127	27	4	7	49	86	2	19	9	271	342	390	732	119	314	16	9	327	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	385	360	97	17	3	2	20	70	1	18	8	269	310	350	660	81	325	18	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	385	354	98	19	3	2	26	58	1	18	8	277	328	364	692	88	322	15	7	310	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	548	496	125	31	1	9	40	123	4	32	12	252	313	373	686	121	312	22	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	548	485	143	38	2	11	51	101	4	32	12	295	367	449	816	155	346	18	9	359	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	151	143	34	12	0	2	6	34	2	5	0	238	278	364	642	126	299	23	4	290	82	-3	+1	-4	-2	+3	-0.5
2020	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	151	143	34	12	0	2	6	34	2	5	0	238	278	364	642	126	299	23	4	287	82	-3	+1	-4	-2	+3	-0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	370	336	63	12	3	8	25	108	5	9	3	188	254	312	567	125	246	29	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	370	327	74	16	4	11	34	92	5	9	3	226	309	401	709	174	276	25	9	314	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	299	273	57	11	2	6	17	83	4	10	5	209	265	330	595	121	271	28	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	299	266	72	15	3	9	23	69	4	10	5	271	337	451	788	180	328	23	8	343	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	550	496	120	19	2	8	51	150	2	42	8	242	315	337	652	95	330	27	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	550	475	134	23	2	13	72	123	2	42	8	282	379	421	800	139	356	22	13	361	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	244	226	52	8	8	0	15	42	1	7	3	230	283	336	620	106	276	17	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	—	365	347	92	13	3	1	13	63	2	10	7	265	301	329	629	63	310	17	4	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	470	432	88	13	5	3	29	118	6	18	7	204	265	278	543	74	269	25	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	547	505	129	26	4	2	29	130	8	35	18	255	315	335	650	79	328	24	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	581	531	151	26	4	1	38	107	7	26	6	284	343	354	697	70	348	18	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	526	484	124	24	5	5	35	104	2	19	9	256	310	357	667	101	308	20	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	385	361	97	17	3	2	20	70	1	18	8	269	310	349	659	80	317	18	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	548	499	125	31	1	9	40	123	4	32	12	251	313	371	684	120	309	22	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	151	142	34	12	0	2	6	34	2	5	0	239	278	366	644	127	299	23	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	370	337	63	12	3	8	25	108	5	9	3	187	254	312	566	125	243	29	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	299	276	57	11	2	6	17	83	4	10	5	207	265	326	591	120	265	28	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	550	492	120	19	2	8	51	150	2	42	8	244	315	339	655	96	328	27	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	279	254	64	19	0	3	21	63	3	11	3	252	317	362	679	110	323	23	8	306	76	-2	+1	-4	-7	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	149	44	0	7	49	147	7	26	7	252	316	361	678	110	323	23	8	306	76	-5	+2	-9	-17	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5036	4597	1132	212	40	47	318	1132	44	231	86	246	301	340	642	94	313	22	6	281	76	-2	+1	-4	-7	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	146	27	5	6	41	146	6	30	11	246	302	339	641	93	313	22	6	281	76	-5	+2	-9	-17	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 550 PAwOBA .352 → .290 (−62)K% 22.4% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.36%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.09%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×0.982	9.21%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.34%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷0.958	×0.930	×1.004	×0.982	26.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷0.975	×0.830	×1.004	×0.982	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.004	×0.982	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	3.69%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.41%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .352 → .290; ISO .139 → .100; BABIP .356 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 299 PAwOBA .338 → .260 (−78)K% 23.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	27.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷0.945	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.57%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.25%
Singles /BIP	22.84%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.955	×0.992	19.23%
Doubles /BIP	7.61%	÷1.038	×0.830	×0.955	×0.992	5.77%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.955	×0.992	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	4.57%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.99%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .338 → .260; ISO .180 → .126; BABIP .328 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 370 PAwOBA .309 → .253 (−56)K% 24.9% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.86%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	29.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.19%	÷0.946	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.72%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.27%
Singles /BIP	18.30%	÷0.966	×0.930	×0.971	×1.003	17.15%
Doubles /BIP	6.81%	÷1.030	×0.830	×0.971	×1.003	5.34%
Triples /BIP	1.70%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.971	×1.003	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	4.68%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.59%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .309 → .253; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .276 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATacoma Rainiers · 420 PAwOBA .364 → .295 (−69)K% 17.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.14%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.05%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.72%
Singles /BIP	23.18%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	20.78%
Doubles /BIP	10.26%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	8.17%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.073	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷1.049	×0.780	—	×1.033	2.54%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 115, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .295; ISO .174 → .134; BABIP .344 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 385 PAwOBA .305 → .284 (−20)K% 15.1% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.06%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.75%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.12%
HBP% /PA	0.26%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.26%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.970	×0.930	×1.010	×1.048	25.37%
Doubles /BIP	6.42%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.010	×1.048	5.71%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.010	×1.048	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	0.68%	÷1.080	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.55%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .305 → .284; ISO .088 → .076; BABIP .322 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 526 PAwOBA .321 → .292 (−29)K% 16.3% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.35%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	19.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.13%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.60%
HBP% /PA	0.38%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.33%
Singles /BIP	23.24%	÷1.024	×0.970	×1.037	×1.027	23.44%
Doubles /BIP	7.05%	÷1.024	×0.860	×1.037	×1.027	6.30%
Triples /BIP	1.04%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.037	×1.027	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	1.83%	÷1.165	×0.780	—	×1.027	1.26%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .321 → .292; ISO .119 → .102; BABIP .314 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAJackson Generals · 581 PAwOBA .317 → .308 (−9)K% 15.1% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.15%	÷1.001	×1.220	—	—	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.29%	÷1.011	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.51%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.05%
Singles /BIP	27.49%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.050	×1.042	27.99%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷0.889	×0.910	×1.050	×1.042	6.11%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.138	×0.880	×1.050	×1.042	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.24%	÷0.992	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.20%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 78, 3B 128, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .317 → .308; ISO .071 → .073; BABIP .338 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 547 PAwOBA .304 → .280 (−24)K% 17.6% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.55%	÷0.988	×1.340	—	—	23.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.31%	÷0.999	×0.710	—	×1.027	5.34%
HBP% /PA	1.46%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.19%
Singles /BIP	25.92%	÷0.995	×0.910	×1.048	×1.027	25.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.07%	÷0.930	×0.820	×1.048	×1.027	6.70%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷0.900	×0.760	×1.048	×1.027	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	0.52%	÷1.077	×0.920	—	×1.027	0.46%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .304 → .280; ISO .086 → .080; BABIP .337 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).