Joe DeCarlo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 291 | .249/.355/.422 | 8 | 0 | 84 | — | .205/.275/.367 |
| 2019 | 25 | AASEA | 198 | .170/.276/.211 | 1 | 0 | 13 | — | .140/.219/.174 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA/AACWS | 184 | .198/.290/.272 | 3 | 0 | 21 | — | .160/.224/.213 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 223 | 182 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 236 | 371 | 401 | 772 | 165 | 293 | 21 | 14 | 349 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 114 | 96 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 368 | 417 | 785 | 167 | 400 | 37 | 15 | 356 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 317 | 268 | 66 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 246 | 355 | 381 | 735 | 134 | 335 | 26 | 11 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 477 | 384 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 70 | 123 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 352 | 333 | 685 | 130 | 266 | 26 | 15 | 318 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 448 | 377 | 100 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 110 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 380 | 454 | 834 | 188 | 339 | 25 | 13 | 373 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 381 | 325 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 42 | 99 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 240 | 348 | 415 | 764 | 175 | 302 | 26 | 11 | 343 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 167 | 130 | 297 | 167 | 24 | 4 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 236 | 207 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 339 | 440 | 779 | 193 | 295 | 22 | 9 | 348 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 55 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 426 | 333 | 759 | 71 | 333 | 18 | 22 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 198 | 171 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 276 | 211 | 486 | 41 | 262 | 33 | 11 | 235 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 51 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 294 | 182 | 476 | 333 | 39 | 14 | 238 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 133 | 118 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 288 | 305 | 593 | 102 | 253 | 25 | 10 | 272 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 223 | 194 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 160 | 262 | 268 | 530 | 108 | 218 | 30 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 114 | 103 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 228 | 252 | 480 | 107 | 309 | 53 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 317 | 281 | 56 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 112 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 281 | 295 | 577 | 96 | 304 | 35 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 477 | 408 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 175 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 269 | 260 | 529 | 105 | 223 | 37 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 448 | 396 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 146 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 291 | 348 | 639 | 149 | 272 | 33 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 381 | 338 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 29 | 136 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 266 | 317 | 583 | 139 | 246 | 36 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 236 | 215 | 44 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 275 | 367 | 643 | 163 | 256 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 198 | 178 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 219 | 174 | 394 | 34 | 232 | 39 | 7 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 51 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 152 | 235 | 152 | 387 | 312 | 47 | 10 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 133 | 123 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 220 | 236 | 455 | 73 | 219 | 30 | 6 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 223 | 194 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 160 | 262 | 268 | 530 | 108 | 224 | 30 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 223 | 182 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 236 | 371 | 401 | 772 | 165 | 293 | 21 | 14 | 349 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 114 | 103 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 146 | 228 | 252 | 480 | 107 | 300 | 53 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 114 | 96 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 368 | 417 | 785 | 167 | 400 | 37 | 15 | 356 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 317 | 281 | 56 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 112 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 281 | 295 | 577 | 96 | 314 | 35 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 317 | 268 | 66 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 246 | 355 | 381 | 735 | 134 | 335 | 26 | 11 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 477 | 408 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 175 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 269 | 260 | 529 | 105 | 236 | 37 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 477 | 384 | 78 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 70 | 123 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 352 | 333 | 685 | 130 | 266 | 26 | 15 | 318 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 448 | 396 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 146 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 291 | 348 | 639 | 149 | 277 | 33 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 448 | 377 | 100 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 110 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 265 | 380 | 454 | 834 | 188 | 339 | 25 | 13 | 373 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 360 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 145 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 266 | 319 | 585 | 142 | 249 | 36 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 348 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 105 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 337 | 397 | 734 | 164 | 292 | 26 | 11 | 330 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 266 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 78 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 269 | 357 | 626 | 154 | 254 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 249 | 62 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 63 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 355 | 422 | 777 | 173 | 302 | 22 | 12 | 349 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 198 | 178 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 219 | 174 | 394 | 34 | 235 | 39 | 7 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 198 | 171 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 276 | 211 | 486 | 41 | 262 | 33 | 11 | 235 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 170 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 224 | 218 | 442 | 53 | 248 | 35 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 162 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 290 | 272 | 561 | 74 | 271 | 29 | 11 | 263 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 223 | 194 | 31 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 160 | 262 | 268 | 530 | 108 | 218 | 30 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 114 | 102 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 228 | 255 | 483 | 108 | 309 | 53 | 9 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 317 | 282 | 56 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 112 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 281 | 294 | 575 | 96 | 304 | 35 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 477 | 410 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 46 | 175 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 269 | 259 | 528 | 105 | 223 | 37 | 10 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 448 | 394 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 146 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 291 | 350 | 641 | 150 | 272 | 33 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 360 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 145 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 178 | 266 | 319 | 585 | 142 | 246 | 36 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 265 | 54 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 78 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 269 | 358 | 627 | 155 | 256 | 27 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 198 | 178 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 219 | 174 | 394 | 34 | 232 | 39 | 7 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 169 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 224 | 219 | 443 | 53 | 245 | 35 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2658 | 2356 | 415 | 85 | 9 | 55 | 212 | 925 | 71 | 4 | 7 | 176 | 264 | 290 | 554 | 114 | 258 | 35 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -146 | -2 | +0 | +9 | +58 | -8.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 101 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 226 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 175 | 263 | 286 | 550 | 111 | 258 | 35 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -36 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AABirmingham Barons · 133 PAwOBA .267 → .205 (−62)K% 24.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.77% | ÷1.119 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.075 | ×0.940 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷0.928 | ×0.870 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 3.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.087 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 115, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 100, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .267 → .205; ISO .102 → .076; BABIP .253 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 51 PAwOBA .233 → .184 (−49)K% 39.2% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.22% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.73% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 31.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.128 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.190 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .233 → .184; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 198 PAwOBA .232 → .188 (−44)K% 32.8% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.83% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.61% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .232 → .188; ISO .041 → .037; BABIP .262 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 236 PAwOBA .339 → .278 (−60)K% 22.5% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.46% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 15.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.39% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 9.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .339 → .278; ISO .193 → .167; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 381 PAwOBA .335 → .260 (−75)K% 26.0% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.98% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.76% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.68% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.082 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.041 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 6.04% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 108, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .335 → .260; ISO .175 → .151; BABIP .302 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 448 PAwOBA .364 → .278 (−87)K% 24.6% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.55% | ÷1.008 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.17% | ÷1.045 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.85% | ÷1.038 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 19.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷1.120 | ×0.820 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.962 | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.24% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 80, K 102, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .364 → .278; ISO .188 → .153; BABIP .339 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AClinton LumberKings · 477 PAwOBA .312 → .238 (−74)K% 25.8% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.79% | ÷0.958 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.05% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.16% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | — | 16.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.13% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | — | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | — | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.83% | ÷0.847 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .312 → .238; ISO .130 → .109; BABIP .266 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AClinton LumberKings · 317 PAwOBA .327 → .258 (−69)K% 26.5% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.50% | ÷1.018 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.84% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.28% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 20.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.33% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 8.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 105, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .327 → .258; ISO .134 → .103; BABIP .335 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .