Jason Vosler
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAASF | 398 | .242/.311/.433 | 18 | 4 | 54 | — | .191/.242/.321 | |
| 2022 | 28 | MLBSF | 111 | .265/.345/.469 | 4 | 1 | 129 | 0.5 | ||
| 2023 | 29 | AAACIN | 363 | .240/.337/.482 | 20 | 3 | 63 | — | .183/.253/.341 | |
| 2023 | 29 | MLBCIN | 65 | .161/.200/.371 | 3 | 0 | 49 | -1.1 | ||
| 2024 | 30 | AAASEA | 524 | .303/.373/.573 | 31 | 4 | 84 | — | .227/.281/.395 | |
| 2024 | 30 | MLBSEA | 30 | .179/.233/.286 | 0 | 0 | 46 | -1.2 | ||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 157 | 127 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 389 | 441 | 829 | 197 | 266 | 17 | 17 | 375 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 276 | 255 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 235 | 286 | 341 | 627 | 106 | 257 | 12 | 5 | 280 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 105 | 92 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 324 | 359 | 682 | 109 | 324 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 378 | 334 | 85 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 331 | 359 | 690 | 105 | 290 | 14 | 9 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 531 | 452 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 53 | 120 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 241 | 347 | 429 | 776 | 188 | 278 | 23 | 10 | 345 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 96 | 81 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 326 | 333 | 660 | 123 | 268 | 25 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 252 | 236 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 307 | 458 | 764 | 195 | 347 | 31 | 5 | 335 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 282 | 235 | 56 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 70 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 356 | 477 | 833 | 238 | 280 | 25 | 13 | 364 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 426 | 375 | 109 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 45 | 102 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 291 | 369 | 523 | 891 | 232 | 348 | 24 | 11 | 387 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 82 | 73 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 178 | 259 | 356 | 615 | 178 | 200 | 26 | 9 | 274 | 70 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 309 | 261 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 295 | 393 | 529 | 921 | 234 | 300 | 15 | 12 | 398 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 111 | 98 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 265 | 345 | 469 | 815 | 204 | 333 | 26 | 9 | 357 | 129 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 398 | 360 | 87 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 34 | 100 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 242 | 311 | 433 | 744 | 192 | 285 | 25 | 9 | 328 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 65 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 200 | 371 | 571 | 210 | 206 | 38 | 5 | 248 | 49 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +1 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 363 | 313 | 75 | 16 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 94 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 337 | 482 | 819 | 243 | 271 | 26 | 12 | 357 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 233 | 286 | 519 | 107 | 263 | 30 | 7 | 234 | 46 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -10 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 524 | 466 | 141 | 25 | 4 | 31 | 46 | 113 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 303 | 373 | 573 | 946 | 270 | 337 | 22 | 9 | 408 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 288 | 261 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 276 | 395 | 671 | 188 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -7 | -14 | +6 | -2.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 157 | 136 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 318 | 390 | 708 | 176 | 246 | 24 | 11 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 276 | 260 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 188 | 227 | 269 | 496 | 81 | 214 | 17 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 105 | 95 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 275 | 326 | 601 | 105 | 298 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 378 | 348 | 71 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 255 | 279 | 534 | 75 | 251 | 20 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 531 | 469 | 95 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 36 | 149 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 288 | 362 | 650 | 160 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 252 | 240 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 103 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 227 | 342 | 569 | 150 | 284 | 41 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 282 | 248 | 49 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 88 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 284 | 391 | 675 | 194 | 245 | 31 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 426 | 390 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 136 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 277 | 387 | 664 | 172 | 283 | 32 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 82 | 74 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 176 | 247 | 351 | 598 | 176 | 200 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 309 | 271 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 323 | 421 | 744 | 177 | 248 | 17 | 8 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 111 | 99 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 263 | 336 | 465 | 801 | 202 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 359 | 129 | +4 | -0 | -3 | +2 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 398 | 371 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 122 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 191 | 242 | 321 | 563 | 129 | 249 | 31 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 65 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 200 | 371 | 571 | 210 | 206 | 38 | 5 | 240 | 49 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +1 | -1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 363 | 328 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 112 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 183 | 253 | 341 | 595 | 159 | 224 | 31 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 233 | 286 | 519 | 107 | 263 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 46 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -10 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 524 | 484 | 110 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 29 | 135 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 227 | 281 | 395 | 675 | 167 | 270 | 26 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 396 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 199 | 263 | 313 | 576 | 114 | 230 | 19 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 433 | 382 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 61 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 238 | 323 | 374 | 698 | 136 | 260 | 14 | 9 | 314 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 442 | 92 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 108 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 208 | 262 | 290 | 551 | 81 | 264 | 22 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 483 | 426 | 108 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 78 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 329 | 359 | 688 | 106 | 297 | 16 | 9 | 308 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 627 | 555 | 112 | 18 | 2 | 23 | 43 | 176 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 285 | 366 | 651 | 164 | 245 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 627 | 533 | 126 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 65 | 144 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 344 | 415 | 758 | 178 | 276 | 23 | 10 | 339 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 488 | 95 | 23 | 1 | 19 | 33 | 190 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 257 | 363 | 620 | 168 | 268 | 36 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 534 | 471 | 118 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 50 | 149 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 251 | 333 | 467 | 800 | 217 | 312 | 28 | 9 | 350 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 426 | 390 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 136 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 277 | 387 | 664 | 172 | 282 | 32 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 426 | 375 | 109 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 45 | 102 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 291 | 369 | 523 | 891 | 232 | 348 | 24 | 11 | 387 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 345 | 79 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 73 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 229 | 307 | 406 | 713 | 177 | 245 | 19 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 391 | 334 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 66 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 365 | 491 | 856 | 222 | 280 | 17 | 11 | 372 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 470 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 151 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 353 | 618 | 145 | 270 | 30 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 509 | 458 | 113 | 19 | 2 | 22 | 44 | 129 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 247 | 318 | 441 | 759 | 194 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 335 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 390 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 137 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 245 | 346 | 591 | 167 | 224 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 428 | 375 | 85 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 48 | 119 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 316 | 464 | 780 | 237 | 262 | 28 | 11 | 340 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 554 | 512 | 115 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 144 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 278 | 389 | 667 | 164 | 274 | 26 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 554 | 494 | 146 | 26 | 5 | 31 | 48 | 122 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 296 | 365 | 557 | 922 | 261 | 333 | 22 | 9 | 398 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 433 | 396 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 199 | 263 | 313 | 576 | 114 | 226 | 19 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 483 | 448 | 92 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 108 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 262 | 286 | 547 | 80 | 261 | 22 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 627 | 557 | 112 | 18 | 2 | 23 | 43 | 176 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 285 | 364 | 650 | 163 | 240 | 28 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 488 | 95 | 23 | 1 | 19 | 33 | 190 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 257 | 363 | 620 | 168 | 263 | 36 | 6 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 426 | 390 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 31 | 136 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 277 | 387 | 664 | 172 | 283 | 32 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 391 | 349 | 79 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 73 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 307 | 401 | 708 | 175 | 238 | 19 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 468 | 98 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 151 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 355 | 620 | 145 | 267 | 30 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 391 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 137 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 245 | 345 | 591 | 166 | 221 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 554 | 511 | 115 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 144 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 278 | 389 | 668 | 164 | 270 | 26 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 554 | 511 | 115 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 144 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 225 | 278 | 389 | 668 | 164 | 270 | 26 | 6 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 288 | 261 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 276 | 395 | 671 | 188 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 296 | 72 | -5 | +0 | -7 | -14 | +6 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 122 | 29 | 7 | 23 | 50 | 190 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 207 | 278 | 397 | 675 | 190 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 296 | 72 | -10 | +0 | -15 | -32 | +14 | -4.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4385 | 3988 | 824 | 164 | 18 | 133 | 288 | 1199 | 64 | 20 | 11 | 207 | 271 | 357 | 628 | 150 | 256 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -5 | +0 | -7 | -14 | +6 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 178 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 206 | 271 | 359 | 629 | 152 | 256 | 27 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -10 | +0 | -15 | -32 | +14 | -4.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 524 PAwOBA .399 → .292 (−107)K% 21.6% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.56% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.59% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.95% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.956 | ×0.962 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.08% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×0.962 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×0.962 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.78% | ÷1.142 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 5.18% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .399 → .292; ISO .270 → .175; BABIP .337 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 363 PAwOBA .351 → .261 (−90)K% 25.9% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.90% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.40% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.81% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | ×0.957 | ×0.972 | 15.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.31% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×0.972 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.13% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 5.90% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .351 → .261; ISO .243 → .166; BABIP .271 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 398 PAwOBA .319 → .248 (−72)K% 25.1% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.54% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 19.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 4.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×0.982 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.92% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .319 → .248; ISO .192 → .135; BABIP .285 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 309 PAwOBA .395 → .321 (−74)K% 14.6% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.56% | ÷1.034 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.65% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.76% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.48% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.992 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.85% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .395 → .321; ISO .234 → .181; BABIP .300 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 426 PAwOBA .380 → .289 (−91)K% 23.9% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.94% | ÷0.965 | ×1.290 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷1.050 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.18% | ÷1.033 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 20.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.044 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.33% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 6.12% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .380 → .289; ISO .232 → .179; BABIP .348 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATennessee Smokies · 282 PAwOBA .357 → .294 (−63)K% 24.8% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.82% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.91% | ÷0.966 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 9.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.128 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.947 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 6.13% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 126, K 95, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .357 → .294; ISO .238 → .204; BABIP .280 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAIowa Cubs · 252 PAwOBA .327 → .240 (−87)K% 31.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.35% | ÷0.993 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.16% | ÷1.116 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.84% | ÷1.033 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 21.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷1.091 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.01% | ÷0.919 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 6.14% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 118, 3B 105, K 99, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .327 → .240; ISO .195 → .144; BABIP .347 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATennessee Smokies · 531 PAwOBA .339 → .284 (−54)K% 22.6% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.60% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.60% | ÷0.976 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 3.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.48% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 17.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.80% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .339 → .284; ISO .188 → .168; BABIP .278 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).