Joe Sever
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | AACLE | 456 | .251/.302/.332 | 4 | 2 | 51 | — | .225/.267/.291 |
| 2017 | 26 | AACLE | 481 | .282/.336/.386 | 7 | 5 | 78 | — | .264/.303/.344 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AACLE | 542 | .256/.319/.365 | 7 | 10 | 72 | — | .238/.285/.332 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 82 | 76 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 366 | 368 | 734 | 53 | 364 | 12 | 6 | 335 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 427 | 386 | 105 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 80 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 272 | 336 | 402 | 737 | 130 | 325 | 19 | 7 | 328 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 316 | 270 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 356 | 333 | 689 | 70 | 302 | 15 | 9 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 114 | 105 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 268 | 305 | 573 | 86 | 266 | 22 | 6 | 256 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 320 | 296 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 59 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 314 | 436 | 750 | 172 | 297 | 18 | 5 | 330 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 456 | 419 | 105 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 111 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 251 | 302 | 332 | 634 | 81 | 330 | 24 | 5 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 481 | 440 | 124 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 82 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 282 | 336 | 386 | 722 | 105 | 329 | 17 | 7 | 322 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 69 | 64 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 78 | 286 | 22 | 4 | 263 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 473 | 424 | 111 | 27 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 72 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 262 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 113 | 295 | 15 | 8 | 311 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 82 | 78 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 329 | 346 | 675 | 51 | 357 | 17 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 427 | 395 | 91 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 109 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 230 | 281 | 339 | 621 | 109 | 295 | 26 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 316 | 281 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 307 | 302 | 610 | 64 | 284 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 114 | 107 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 259 | 308 | 567 | 84 | 270 | 26 | 4 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 320 | 303 | 63 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 81 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 245 | 333 | 579 | 125 | 255 | 25 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 456 | 426 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 136 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 66 | 314 | 30 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 481 | 451 | 119 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 101 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 264 | 303 | 344 | 646 | 80 | 321 | 21 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 69 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 185 | 232 | 246 | 478 | 62 | 266 | 26 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 473 | 435 | 107 | 25 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 88 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 246 | 293 | 345 | 638 | 99 | 282 | 19 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 472 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 123 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 242 | 291 | 341 | 632 | 100 | 312 | 24 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 509 | 462 | 129 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 90 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 279 | 341 | 396 | 737 | 117 | 332 | 18 | 7 | 329 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 316 | 281 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 307 | 302 | 610 | 64 | 300 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 316 | 270 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 356 | 333 | 689 | 70 | 302 | 15 | 9 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 410 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 111 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 247 | 322 | 568 | 112 | 263 | 26 | 3 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 401 | 101 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 84 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 302 | 401 | 704 | 150 | 289 | 19 | 6 | 311 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 456 | 426 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 136 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 66 | 322 | 30 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 456 | 419 | 105 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 111 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 251 | 302 | 332 | 634 | 81 | 330 | 24 | 5 | 285 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 481 | 451 | 119 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 101 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 264 | 303 | 344 | 646 | 80 | 326 | 21 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | Akron RubberDucks | — | 481 | 440 | 124 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 82 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 282 | 336 | 386 | 722 | 105 | 329 | 17 | 7 | 322 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 542 | 500 | 120 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 105 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 240 | 287 | 334 | 621 | 94 | 287 | 19 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 542 | 488 | 125 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 87 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 256 | 319 | 365 | 684 | 109 | 294 | 16 | 7 | 305 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 471 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 123 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 242 | 291 | 342 | 633 | 100 | 305 | 24 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 316 | 285 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 307 | 298 | 606 | 63 | 284 | 22 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 411 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 111 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 247 | 321 | 568 | 112 | 259 | 26 | 3 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 456 | 429 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 136 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 224 | 267 | 289 | 556 | 65 | 314 | 30 | 4 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 481 | 453 | 119 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 101 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 263 | 303 | 342 | 645 | 79 | 321 | 21 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 542 | 504 | 120 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 105 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 238 | 287 | 331 | 618 | 93 | 280 | 19 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2738 | 2540 | 602 | 112 | 7 | 32 | 126 | 646 | 37 | 24 | 10 | 237 | 283 | 324 | 607 | 87 | 302 | 24 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -111 | +1 | +0 | -49 | +59 | -10.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 144 | 27 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 153 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 239 | 285 | 330 | 615 | 91 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -26 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAkron RubberDucks · 473 PAwOBA .307 → .282 (−25)K% 15.2% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.40% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 5.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 21.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.980 | ×0.950 | ×1.007 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷0.840 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 1.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 84, 3B 96, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .307 → .282; ISO .113 → .104; BABIP .295 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAColumbus Clippers · 69 PAwOBA .256 → .224 (−32)K% 21.7% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 17.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 8.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.135 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .256 → .224; ISO .078 → .066; BABIP .286 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAkron RubberDucks · 481 PAwOBA .317 → .284 (−33)K% 17.0% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.05% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.65% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.26% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 26.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.87% | ÷1.072 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.008 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.48% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .317 → .284; ISO .105 → .083; BABIP .329 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAkron RubberDucks · 456 PAwOBA .279 → .244 (−35)K% 24.3% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.34% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.015 | ×0.860 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.032 | ×0.988 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.30% | ÷0.949 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .279 → .244; ISO .081 → .066; BABIP .330 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 320 PAwOBA .323 → .251 (−73)K% 18.4% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷1.031 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.31% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.68% | ÷1.026 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 18.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.22% | ÷1.129 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 84, K 106, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .323 → .251; ISO .172 → .129; BABIP .297 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAkron RubberDucks · 114 PAwOBA .251 → .237 (−15)K% 21.9% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.14% | ÷0.934 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷0.971 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 23.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.053 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.842 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 104, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .251 → .237; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .266 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Carolina Mudcats · 316 PAwOBA .310 → .268 (−42)K% 14.9% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.87% | ÷0.961 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷0.966 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.85% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.01% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 24.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.036 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.869 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.38% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .310 → .268; ISO .070 → .065; BABIP .302 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALake County Captains · 427 PAwOBA .322 → .268 (−53)K% 18.7% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.74% | ÷1.001 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.20% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.17% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.925 | ×0.910 | ×1.041 | ×0.990 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.29% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.89% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 100, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .322 → .268; ISO .130 → .108; BABIP .325 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).