Matt Reynolds

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1990-12-03

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2023

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2021	30	AAACWS	367	.269/.377/.395	5	5	66	—	.220/.295/.305
2022	31	AAACIN	32	.185/.290/.296	1	0	20	—	.179/.258/.286
2022	31	MLBCIN	272	.246/.321/.332	3	5	86	0.4
2023	32	AAACIN	515	.266/.357/.514	22	8	75	—	.206/.272/.376
2024	33	No MLB games played
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2023

Speed47

Avg EV39

xwOBA16

Barrel%10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	21	A	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	179	158	41	8	0	3	12	26	7	5	1	259	339	367	706	108	290	15	7	319	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	488	433	98	21	6	5	36	80	13	9	2	226	305	337	642	111	263	16	7	290	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	301	267	89	16	4	5	21	60	5	14	4	333	392	479	872	146	404	20	7	378	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	242	211	75	5	3	1	29	41	0	6	3	355	433	422	855	66	433	17	12	386	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	89	77	18	5	1	3	11	17	0	3	0	234	330	442	771	208	259	19	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	490	445	119	32	5	6	32	92	5	13	4	267	324	402	726	135	319	19	7	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	96	89	20	8	0	3	4	34	1	0	1	225	266	416	682	191	327	35	4	294	91	-1	-0	+1	+4	+2	0.6
2016	25	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	299	269	71	15	2	2	26	64	3	9	2	264	336	357	692	93	340	21	9	315	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	130	113	26	1	2	1	14	37	2	0	1	230	326	301	626	71	333	28	11	290	83	-3	-0	+2	+1	+3	0.3
2017	26	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	144	128	41	9	0	4	16	30	0	2	2	320	396	484	880	164	394	21	11	392	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	355	309	82	31	3	4	40	75	4	2	1	265	357	424	781	159	336	21	11	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	449	376	111	29	4	16	64	95	4	8	2	295	403	521	924	226	356	21	14	402	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	367	309	83	20	2	5	51	93	3	5	3	269	377	395	772	126	363	25	14	348	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	244	60	10	1	3	26	78	1	5	0	246	321	332	653	86	348	29	10	299	86	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2022	31	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	32	27	5	0	0	1	4	6	0	0	0	185	290	296	587	111	190	19	12	265	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	515	444	118	38	3	22	60	141	3	8	0	266	357	514	871	248	332	27	12	375	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	498	446	106	19	3	7	44	149	4	5	2	238	312	341	653	103	340	30	9	295	86	-8	+0	+3	+6	+11	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	21	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	179	162	38	7	0	3	8	34	7	5	1	235	299	333	633	99	265	19	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	488	441	82	20	4	3	28	116	13	9	2	186	255	270	525	84	236	24	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	301	274	81	13	4	4	14	82	5	14	4	296	341	416	757	120	377	27	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	242	220	77	4	3	1	20	49	0	6	3	350	404	409	813	59	440	20	8	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	490	454	102	25	4	4	23	122	5	13	4	225	270	324	593	99	286	25	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	96	89	20	8	0	3	4	34	1	0	1	225	266	416	682	191	327	35	4	303	91	-1	-0	+1	+4	+2	0.6
2016	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	299	276	61	11	2	1	19	85	3	9	2	221	279	286	565	65	312	28	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	130	114	27	1	2	1	13	37	2	0	1	237	326	307	633	70	333	28	10	290	83	-3	-0	+2	+1	+3	0.3
2017	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	144	133	34	7	0	2	11	41	0	2	2	256	312	353	666	98	360	28	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	355	321	72	27	3	3	28	86	4	2	1	224	295	355	650	131	295	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	449	396	90	22	3	12	44	128	4	8	2	227	311	389	700	162	294	29	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	367	328	72	15	2	3	32	110	3	5	3	220	295	305	600	85	306	30	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	244	60	10	1	3	26	78	1	5	0	246	321	332	653	86	348	29	10	295	86	-5	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2022	31	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	32	28	5	0	0	1	3	8	0	0	0	179	258	286	544	107	166	25	9	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	515	465	96	31	3	14	39	168	3	8	0	206	272	376	649	170	272	33	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	179	162	38	7	0	3	8	34	7	5	1	235	299	333	633	99	276	19	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A RAW	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	179	158	41	8	0	3	12	26	7	5	1	259	339	367	706	108	290	15	7	319	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	488	441	82	20	4	3	28	116	13	9	2	186	255	270	525	84	242	24	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	488	433	98	21	6	5	36	80	13	9	2	226	305	337	642	111	263	16	7	290	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	632	576	184	20	8	6	40	153	5	23	7	319	369	413	782	94	418	24	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	632	555	182	26	8	9	61	118	5	23	7	328	399	452	852	124	396	19	10	375	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	490	454	102	25	4	4	23	122	5	13	4	225	270	324	593	99	293	25	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	490	445	119	32	5	6	32	92	5	13	4	267	324	402	726	135	319	19	7	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	395	365	81	19	2	4	23	119	4	9	3	222	276	318	593	96	318	30	6	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	395	358	91	23	2	5	30	98	4	9	3	254	319	372	690	117	337	25	8	309	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	274	247	61	8	2	3	24	78	2	2	3	247	319	332	651	85	349	28	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	274	241	67	10	2	5	30	67	2	2	3	278	363	398	761	120	367	24	11	344	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	355	321	72	27	3	3	28	86	4	2	1	224	295	355	650	131	295	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA RAW	Syracuse Chiefs	—	355	309	82	31	3	4	40	75	4	2	1	265	357	424	781	159	336	21	11	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	449	396	90	22	3	12	44	128	4	8	2	227	311	389	700	162	302	29	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	449	376	111	29	4	16	64	95	4	8	2	295	403	521	924	226	356	21	14	402	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	367	328	72	15	2	3	32	110	3	5	3	220	295	305	600	85	315	30	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	367	309	83	20	2	5	51	93	3	5	3	269	377	395	772	126	363	25	14	348	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	304	272	63	10	1	3	29	86	1	5	0	232	308	309	617	77	324	28	10	285	79	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2022	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	304	271	65	10	1	4	30	84	1	5	0	240	318	328	646	89	330	28	10	295	79	-8	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	515	465	96	31	3	14	39	168	3	8	0	206	272	376	649	170	282	33	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	515	444	118	38	3	22	60	141	3	8	0	266	357	514	871	248	332	27	12	375	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	179	162	38	7	0	3	8	34	7	5	1	235	299	333	633	99	265	19	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	488	444	82	20	4	3	28	116	13	9	2	185	255	268	523	83	236	24	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	632	582	184	20	8	6	40	153	5	23	7	316	369	409	778	93	405	24	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	490	459	102	25	4	4	23	122	5	13	4	222	270	320	590	98	286	25	5	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	395	365	81	19	2	4	23	119	4	9	3	222	276	318	593	96	316	30	6	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	274	246	61	8	2	3	24	78	2	2	3	248	319	333	652	85	347	28	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	355	320	72	27	3	3	28	86	4	2	1	225	295	356	651	131	295	24	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	449	398	90	22	3	12	44	128	4	8	2	226	311	387	698	161	294	29	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	367	329	72	15	2	3	32	110	3	5	3	219	295	304	599	85	306	30	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	304	271	63	10	1	3	29	86	1	5	0	232	308	310	618	77	328	28	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	515	468	96	31	3	14	39	168	3	8	0	205	272	374	646	169	272	33	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	498	446	106	19	3	7	44	149	4	5	2	238	312	341	653	103	340	30	9	295	78	-8	+0	+3	+6	+11	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	139	25	4	9	57	194	5	7	3	239	312	342	654	103	342	30	9	295	78	-11	+0	+4	+8	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4448	4027	941	204	32	58	318	1200	51	89	26	234	298	343	641	110	314	27	7	283	78	-8	+0	+3	+6	+11	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	138	30	5	8	46	175	7	13	4	235	298	344	641	109	316	27	7	283	78	-11	+0	+4	+8	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 515 PAwOBA .370 → .279 (−91)K% 27.4% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.38%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	32.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.46%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.50%
HBP% /PA	0.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.52%
Singles /BIP	18.15%	÷0.998	×0.930	×0.980	×0.942	15.61%
Doubles /BIP	12.54%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.980	×0.942	10.24%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.980	×0.942	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	7.26%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.942	4.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .370 → .279; ISO .248 → .176; BABIP .332 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 32 PAwOBA .267 → .198 (−70)K% 18.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	23.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.952	8.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×0.952	16.94%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .267 → .198; ISO .111 → .060; BABIP .190 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAACharlotte Knights · 367 PAwOBA .343 → .266 (−76)K% 25.3% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.34%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	30.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.62%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.59%
HBP% /PA	0.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.74%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.998	×0.962	23.46%
Doubles /BIP	9.26%	÷1.128	×0.830	×0.998	×0.962	6.54%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.020	×0.920	×0.998	×0.962	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	2.31%	÷1.190	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.31%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 126, 3B 104, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .343 → .266; ISO .126 → .087; BABIP .363 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 449 PAwOBA .393 → .304 (−89)K% 21.2% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.16%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.03%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×0.982	9.88%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.86%
Singles /BIP	22.06%	÷0.959	×0.900	×0.951	×0.982	19.32%
Doubles /BIP	10.32%	÷0.976	×0.810	×0.951	×0.982	8.00%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷1.140	×0.810	×0.951	×0.982	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	5.69%	÷0.962	×0.780	—	×0.982	4.53%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .393 → .304; ISO .226 → .170; BABIP .356 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 355 PAwOBA .340 → .287 (−53)K% 21.1% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.13%	÷1.044	×1.200	—	—	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.99%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.86%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.05%
Singles /BIP	18.80%	÷1.044	×0.930	×0.991	×0.992	16.46%
Doubles /BIP	13.25%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.991	×0.992	11.58%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.991	×0.992	1.36%
Home runs /BIP	1.71%	÷1.205	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.18%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .340 → .287; ISO .159 → .137; BABIP .336 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 144 PAwOBA .381 → .303 (−78)K% 20.8% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	28.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.015	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.994	×0.900	×1.050	×1.003	27.24%
Doubles /BIP	9.18%	÷0.998	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	7.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷1.209	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.64%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .381 → .303; ISO .164 → .113; BABIP .394 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALas Vegas 51s · 299 PAwOBA .307 → .253 (−53)K% 21.4% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.40%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	28.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.962	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.53%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.00%
Singles /BIP	25.37%	÷0.994	×0.900	×1.050	×1.018	24.55%
Doubles /BIP	7.32%	÷1.128	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	5.62%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷0.980	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	0.86%
Home runs /BIP	0.98%	÷1.088	×0.780	—	×1.018	0.71%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 126, 3B 96, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .307 → .253; ISO .093 → .067; BABIP .340 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALas Vegas 51s · 490 PAwOBA .315 → .261 (−54)K% 18.8% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.78%	÷0.977	×1.290	—	—	24.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.53%	÷1.010	×0.710	—	×1.033	4.74%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.03%
Singles /BIP	21.53%	÷0.983	×0.900	×1.003	×1.033	20.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.07%	÷1.042	×0.810	×1.003	×1.033	7.30%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷1.061	×0.810	×1.003	×1.033	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	1.70%	÷1.099	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 112, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .315 → .261; ISO .135 → .102; BABIP .319 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).