Zach Green
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 25 | AAASF | 297 | .282/.384/.659 | 25 | 1 | 99 | — | .198/.286/.450 | |
| 2019 | 25 | MLBSF | 16 | .143/.250/.214 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0.0 | ||
| 2021 | 27 | AAAMIL | 378 | .214/.313/.407 | 15 | 0 | 52 | — | .169/.249/.305 | |
| 2022 | 28 | AAASEA | 378 | .227/.296/.460 | 18 | 1 | 57 | — | .186/.237/.350 | |
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 169 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 284 | 335 | 426 | 761 | 142 | 363 | 23 | 4 | 338 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 358 | 328 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 268 | 320 | 402 | 723 | 134 | 313 | 18 | 7 | 318 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 111 | 104 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 218 | 221 | 439 | 48 | 224 | 25 | 5 | 202 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 394 | 354 | 93 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 110 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 329 | 432 | 761 | 169 | 343 | 28 | 5 | 336 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 51 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 333 | 633 | 111 | 360 | 39 | 6 | 285 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 152 | 140 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 278 | 393 | 671 | 171 | 306 | 34 | 5 | 297 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 438 | 1.077 | 1.514 | 769 | 143 | 24 | 18 | 566 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 68 | 62 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 324 | 419 | 743 | 161 | 350 | 29 | 6 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 138 | 125 | 31 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 248 | 314 | 432 | 746 | 184 | 378 | 36 | 7 | 328 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 312 | 277 | 81 | 23 | 1 | 17 | 28 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 292 | 372 | 567 | 939 | 274 | 356 | 26 | 9 | 408 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 250 | 38 | 12 | 224 | 38 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 297 | 252 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 25 | 39 | 99 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 384 | 659 | 1.043 | 377 | 351 | 33 | 13 | 440 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 378 | 327 | 70 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 313 | 407 | 720 | 193 | 327 | 39 | 11 | 320 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 378 | 339 | 77 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 113 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 296 | 460 | 756 | 233 | 276 | 30 | 7 | 327 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 250 | 38 | 12 | 224 | 38 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +0 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 172 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 247 | 302 | 550 | 99 | 291 | 34 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 358 | 335 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 85 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 242 | 280 | 355 | 636 | 113 | 295 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 111 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 190 | 372 | 48 | 217 | 38 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 394 | 359 | 73 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 158 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 265 | 334 | 599 | 131 | 319 | 40 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 51 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 304 | 564 | 109 | 341 | 47 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 152 | 142 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 71 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 212 | 282 | 494 | 120 | 281 | 47 | 3 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 714 | 1.027 | 500 | 90 | 35 | 12 | 431 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 138 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 248 | 323 | 571 | 134 | 339 | 44 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 312 | 285 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 96 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 298 | 414 | 712 | 182 | 306 | 31 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 250 | 38 | 12 | 225 | 38 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 297 | 262 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 132 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 286 | 450 | 736 | 252 | 290 | 44 | 10 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 378 | 338 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 174 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 249 | 305 | 553 | 136 | 283 | 46 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 378 | 349 | 65 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 133 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 237 | 350 | 586 | 163 | 249 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 172 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 203 | 247 | 302 | 550 | 99 | 303 | 34 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 169 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 284 | 335 | 426 | 761 | 142 | 363 | 23 | 4 | 338 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 358 | 335 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 85 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 242 | 280 | 355 | 636 | 113 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 358 | 328 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 268 | 320 | 402 | 723 | 134 | 313 | 18 | 7 | 318 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 111 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 190 | 372 | 48 | 222 | 38 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 111 | 104 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 173 | 218 | 221 | 439 | 48 | 224 | 25 | 5 | 202 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 394 | 359 | 73 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 158 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 265 | 334 | 599 | 131 | 327 | 40 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 394 | 354 | 93 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 20 | 110 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 263 | 329 | 432 | 761 | 169 | 343 | 28 | 5 | 336 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 288 | 265 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 132 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 228 | 309 | 538 | 140 | 289 | 46 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 288 | 260 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 95 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 302 | 423 | 725 | 188 | 318 | 33 | 6 | 319 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 413 | 92 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 157 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 285 | 397 | 682 | 174 | 321 | 35 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 402 | 112 | 35 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 129 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 279 | 354 | 525 | 879 | 246 | 362 | 29 | 8 | 384 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 276 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 138 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 284 | 438 | 722 | 243 | 298 | 44 | 10 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 313 | 266 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 25 | 41 | 105 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 377 | 635 | 1.013 | 361 | 345 | 34 | 13 | 429 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 378 | 338 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 174 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 249 | 305 | 553 | 136 | 293 | 46 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 378 | 327 | 70 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 40 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 313 | 407 | 720 | 193 | 327 | 39 | 11 | 320 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 378 | 349 | 65 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 133 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 237 | 350 | 586 | 163 | 256 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 378 | 339 | 77 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 28 | 113 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 296 | 460 | 756 | 233 | 276 | 30 | 7 | 327 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 183 | 171 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 247 | 304 | 551 | 99 | 291 | 34 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 358 | 337 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 85 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 240 | 280 | 353 | 634 | 113 | 295 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 111 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 182 | 190 | 372 | 48 | 217 | 38 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 394 | 361 | 73 | 20 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 158 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 265 | 332 | 597 | 130 | 319 | 40 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 288 | 266 | 45 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 132 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 228 | 308 | 536 | 139 | 280 | 46 | 4 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 411 | 92 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 27 | 157 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 285 | 399 | 684 | 175 | 316 | 35 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 313 | 276 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 31 | 138 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 284 | 438 | 722 | 243 | 288 | 44 | 10 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 378 | 339 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 174 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 249 | 304 | 552 | 136 | 283 | 46 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 378 | 352 | 65 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 133 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 237 | 347 | 583 | 162 | 249 | 35 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 250 | 38 | 12 | 224 | 63 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +0 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 569 | 82 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 244 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 251 | 216 | 467 | 72 | 252 | 38 | 12 | 224 | 63 | -48 | +0 | +6 | +45 | +14 | 1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2853 | 2612 | 517 | 136 | 8 | 78 | 159 | 1081 | 53 | 12 | 7 | 198 | 258 | 346 | 604 | 148 | 296 | 38 | 6 | 262 | 63 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +0 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 118 | 31 | 2 | 18 | 36 | 246 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 198 | 258 | 348 | 606 | 150 | 297 | 38 | 6 | 262 | 63 | -48 | +0 | +6 | +45 | +14 | 1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 378 PAwOBA .323 → .252 (−70)K% 29.9% → 35.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.89% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.49% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 13.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.18% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 9.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.992 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.96% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 4.84% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .323 → .252; ISO .233 → .166; BABIP .276 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 378 PAwOBA .315 → .245 (−69)K% 39.2% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.15% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | ×0.966 | ×1.003 | 19.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.06% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×1.003 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.38% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.43% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .315 → .245; ISO .193 → .140; BABIP .327 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 297 PAwOBA .431 → .314 (−117)K% 33.3% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 44.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.79% | ÷0.980 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 9.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.982 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 15.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.981 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 9.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.008 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.34% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 12.82% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .431 → .314; ISO .377 → .261; BABIP .351 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAReading Fightin Phils · 312 PAwOBA .396 → .306 (−90)K% 25.6% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.64% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.65% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.30% | ÷0.964 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.68% | ÷1.101 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 8.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.63% | ÷1.164 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 93, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .396 → .306; ISO .274 → .186; BABIP .356 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 138 PAwOBA .322 → .257 (−65)K% 35.5% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.51% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷0.932 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 18.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 13.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.95% | ÷0.954 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 3.64% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .257; ISO .184 → .146; BABIP .378 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Clearwater Threshers · 152 PAwOBA .290 → .217 (−74)K% 33.6% → 46.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.55% | ÷1.016 | ×1.420 | — | — | 46.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.61% | ÷0.998 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 3.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 18.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷0.907 | ×0.960 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 8.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.002 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.62% | ÷1.058 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.66% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 98, 2B 82, 3B 100, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .290 → .217; ISO .171 → .122; BABIP .306 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 51 PAwOBA .283 → .231 (−52)K% 39.2% → 47.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.22% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 47.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.027 | 27.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 7.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.220 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 113, K 102, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .283 → .231; ISO .111 → .077; BABIP .360 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Phillies · 17 PAwOBA .583 → .431 (−152)K% 23.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 10.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 25.09% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .583 → .431; ISO .769 → .603; BABIP .143 → .090. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .