Tyler Collins
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | AAADET | 281 | .214/.276/.323 | 7 | 4 | 40 | — | .186/.233/.274 | |
| 2016 | 26 | MLBDET | 151 | .235/.307/.382 | 4 | 1 | 97 | 0.4 | ||
| 2017 | 27 | AAADET | 296 | .288/.364/.462 | 9 | 11 | 88 | — | .245/.302/.387 | |
| 2017 | 27 | MLBDET | 169 | .193/.280/.333 | 5 | 0 | 77 | -0.5 | ||
| 2018 | 28 | AAAKC | 62 | .132/.246/.132 | 0 | 0 | -13 | — | .109/.197/.109 | |
| 2019 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 21 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 194 | 168 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 298 | 376 | 458 | 834 | 161 | 322 | 12 | 9 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 538 | 470 | 135 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 64 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 287 | 371 | 426 | 797 | 138 | 317 | 12 | 11 | 355 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 530 | 466 | 112 | 29 | 0 | 21 | 51 | 122 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 240 | 326 | 438 | 763 | 197 | 277 | 23 | 10 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 89 | 73 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 386 | 356 | 743 | 96 | 315 | 20 | 17 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 375 | 655 | 125 | 263 | 16 | 4 | 292 | 88 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 526 | 468 | 123 | 17 | 2 | 18 | 49 | 116 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 263 | 338 | 423 | 761 | 160 | 310 | 22 | 9 | 337 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 207 | 192 | 51 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 316 | 417 | 732 | 151 | 324 | 21 | 6 | 323 | 109 | +2 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 218 | 190 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 247 | 335 | 332 | 666 | 84 | 298 | 18 | 10 | 304 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 151 | 136 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 307 | 382 | 689 | 147 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 307 | 97 | -0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 281 | 257 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 276 | 323 | 599 | 109 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 271 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 169 | 150 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 193 | 280 | 333 | 613 | 140 | 264 | 33 | 11 | 278 | 77 | -5 | -2 | -5 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 296 | 260 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 72 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 288 | 364 | 462 | 826 | 173 | 359 | 24 | 10 | 361 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 62 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 132 | 246 | 132 | 378 | 175 | 23 | 11 | 193 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 552 | 502 | 118 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 140 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 235 | 301 | 380 | 681 | 145 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 92 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -7 | +12 | -1.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 538 | 485 | 115 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 90 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 237 | 306 | 346 | 652 | 109 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 530 | 481 | 99 | 25 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 148 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 206 | 272 | 358 | 630 | 152 | 254 | 28 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 25 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 280 | 375 | 655 | 125 | 263 | 16 | 4 | 298 | 88 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 526 | 485 | 114 | 14 | 2 | 18 | 32 | 137 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 235 | 288 | 384 | 671 | 148 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 207 | 192 | 51 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 266 | 316 | 417 | 732 | 151 | 324 | 21 | 6 | 329 | 109 | +2 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 218 | 198 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 217 | 279 | 288 | 567 | 71 | 264 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 151 | 136 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 307 | 382 | 689 | 147 | 295 | 25 | 9 | 312 | 97 | -0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 281 | 263 | 49 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 186 | 233 | 274 | 507 | 87 | 240 | 29 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 169 | 150 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 193 | 280 | 333 | 613 | 140 | 264 | 33 | 11 | 282 | 77 | -5 | -2 | -5 | +2 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 296 | 269 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 86 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 245 | 302 | 387 | 689 | 141 | 313 | 29 | 7 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 62 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 109 | 197 | 109 | 306 | 146 | 29 | 8 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 21 | INTL MLE | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 194 | 168 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 298 | 376 | 458 | 834 | 161 | 322 | 12 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | INTL RAW | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 194 | 168 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 298 | 376 | 458 | 834 | 161 | 322 | 12 | 9 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 538 | 485 | 115 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 90 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 237 | 306 | 346 | 652 | 109 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 538 | 470 | 135 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 64 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 287 | 371 | 426 | 797 | 138 | 317 | 12 | 11 | 355 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 619 | 564 | 116 | 29 | 0 | 19 | 41 | 173 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 206 | 269 | 358 | 627 | 152 | 257 | 28 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 619 | 539 | 131 | 30 | 0 | 23 | 66 | 140 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 243 | 334 | 427 | 761 | 184 | 283 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 509 | 120 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 33 | 141 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 288 | 383 | 671 | 147 | 285 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 551 | 492 | 129 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 50 | 120 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 262 | 335 | 421 | 756 | 159 | 307 | 22 | 9 | 335 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 390 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 91 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 241 | 297 | 351 | 648 | 110 | 297 | 21 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 382 | 98 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 83 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 257 | 325 | 374 | 700 | 118 | 311 | 20 | 8 | 313 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 399 | 82 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 120 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 115 | 262 | 28 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 393 | 87 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 107 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 287 | 344 | 630 | 122 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 419 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 141 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 227 | 294 | 368 | 662 | 141 | 305 | 30 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 465 | 410 | 104 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 127 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 254 | 333 | 415 | 748 | 161 | 327 | 27 | 10 | 331 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 62 | 55 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 109 | 197 | 109 | 306 | 158 | 29 | 8 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 62 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 132 | 246 | 132 | 378 | 175 | 23 | 11 | 193 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 538 | 485 | 115 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 90 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 237 | 306 | 346 | 652 | 109 | 278 | 17 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 619 | 565 | 116 | 29 | 0 | 19 | 41 | 173 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 205 | 269 | 358 | 627 | 152 | 254 | 28 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 509 | 120 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 33 | 141 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 288 | 383 | 671 | 147 | 280 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 391 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 91 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 240 | 297 | 350 | 647 | 110 | 293 | 21 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 399 | 82 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 120 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 206 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 115 | 259 | 28 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 422 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 141 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 225 | 294 | 365 | 659 | 140 | 295 | 30 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 62 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 107 | 197 | 107 | 304 | 146 | 29 | 8 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 552 | 502 | 118 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 140 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 235 | 301 | 380 | 681 | 145 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 65 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -7 | +12 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 138 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 53 | 165 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 234 | 298 | 376 | 674 | 142 | 296 | 25 | 8 | 303 | 65 | -7 | -2 | -10 | -9 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3286 | 2989 | 678 | 132 | 16 | 75 | 232 | 798 | 30 | 70 | 27 | 227 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 130 | 280 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -7 | +12 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 134 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 158 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 227 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 130 | 280 | 24 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -7 | -2 | -10 | -9 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 62 PAwOBA .192 → .149 (−43)K% 22.6% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷1.007 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.020 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 14.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .192 → .149; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .175 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 296 PAwOBA .358 → .298 (−60)K% 24.3% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.60% | ÷1.054 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 23.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.003 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.79% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 3.85% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 111, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .358 → .298; ISO .173 → .145; BABIP .359 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 281 PAwOBA .265 → .228 (−37)K% 24.6% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.56% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.12% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.81% | ÷1.001 | ×0.930 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 2.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.72% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 3.54% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .265 → .228; ISO .109 → .096; BABIP .262 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 218 PAwOBA .299 → .253 (−46)K% 18.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.35% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.63% | ÷1.085 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 21.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.911 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 98, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 100, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .299 → .253; ISO .084 → .071; BABIP .298 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 526 PAwOBA .330 → .291 (−40)K% 22.1% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.05% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.43% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 22.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.049 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 5.01% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 106, 3B 110, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .291; ISO .160 → .150; BABIP .310 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAErie SeaWolves · 530 PAwOBA .331 → .275 (−56)K% 23.0% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.02% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.02% | ÷0.998 | ×0.970 | ×0.954 | ×1.027 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷0.965 | ×0.860 | ×0.954 | ×1.027 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.950 | ×0.954 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.80% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .331 → .275; ISO .197 → .158; BABIP .277 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 538 PAwOBA .348 → .293 (−55)K% 11.9% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.90% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.41% | ÷0.982 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷0.970 | ×0.960 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.122 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .348 → .293; ISO .138 → .118; BABIP .317 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .