Spencer Patton prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Spencer Patton P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.43

FIP4.49

K%22.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1012.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

FB-0.9

SL-2.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	9	0	9	35	8	2	0	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.7%	17.1%	0.0%	0.96	1.89	+0.3
2014	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	9	0	9	35	8	2	0	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.7%	17.1%	0.0%	0.96	2.03	+0.3
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	51	223	64	21	6	0%	1.0	26.8%	9.6%	17.1%	2.6%	5.12	3.47	+0.7
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	51	223	64	21	6	0%	1.0	28.7%	9.4%	19.3%	2.7%	5.12	3.35	+0.7
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	57	244	81	29	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	12.2%	18.1%	1.3%	2.51	2.79	+1.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	57	244	81	29	3	0%	1.1	33.2%	11.9%	21.3%	1.2%	2.51	2.47	+1.4
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	54	217	60	21	4	0%	1.0	27.9%	8.7%	19.2%	2.2%	2.98	3.04	+1.0
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	54	217	60	21	4	0%	1.0	27.6%	9.7%	18.0%	1.8%	2.98	3.01	+1.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	36	166	45	20	9	0%	1.2	25.7%	13.0%	12.7%	6.7%	5.94	6.26	-0.7
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	36	166	45	20	9	0%	1.2	27.1%	12.0%	15.1%	5.4%	5.94	5.49	-0.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.76	4.33	+0.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	2.9%	4.76	4.33	+0.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	59	265	57	28	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	2.6%	4.76	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			113	0	116	501	118	51	16	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.2%	5.11	4.17	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	9.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.43	4.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	OAK	46	0	48	204	43	21	7	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.73	4.92	-0.2
2028	40	MLB MLE	OAK	40	0	42	175	35	20	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.9%	5.10	5.35	-0.4
2027	39	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.73	4.92	—
2028	40	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	11.2%	8.7%	3.9%	5.10	5.35	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		113	0	116	501	118	51	16	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.2%	5.11	4.15	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	861	203	88	28	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.2%	5.11	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		253	0	267	1150	295	119	32	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.01	3.80	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		190	0	200	861	221	89	24	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.01	3.80	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Patton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	22.1%	9.8%	3.0%	—	5.12	20.5%	9.7%	90	+0.63	—	—	—
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	70
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	70
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	64
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	62
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	61
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	56
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	53
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	48
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	37
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	34
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	44	22.2%	10.4%	1.28	4.89
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57