Dan Gamache
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AA/A+2 orgs | 468 | .266/.335/.385 | 7 | 0 | 70 | — | .236/.282/.329 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAWSH | 477 | .274/.368/.368 | 5 | 2 | 72 | — | .236/.303/.309 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAOAK | 169 | .194/.314/.236 | 0 | 0 | 18 | — | .146/.237/.172 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 20 | ROK | GCL Pirates | — | 26 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 440 | 350 | 790 | 438 | 19 | 12 | 352 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 21 | A | West Virginia Power | — | 502 | 449 | 128 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 95 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 285 | 353 | 430 | 783 | 145 | 348 | 19 | 8 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | — | 553 | 480 | 124 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 139 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 258 | 344 | 373 | 717 | 115 | 350 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 155 | 138 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 275 | 342 | 486 | 828 | 210 | 317 | 21 | 7 | 358 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 72 | 59 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 314 | 305 | 619 | 119 | 213 | 18 | 15 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 111 | 101 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 306 | 307 | 612 | 50 | 329 | 22 | 5 | 273 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 266 | 245 | 82 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 335 | 380 | 457 | 837 | 122 | 374 | 14 | 6 | 370 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 204 | 176 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 244 | 342 | 324 | 665 | 80 | 325 | 25 | 13 | 306 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 429 | 385 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 322 | 361 | 683 | 112 | 314 | 21 | 9 | 307 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 39 | 36 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 487 | 639 | 1.126 | 194 | 483 | 13 | 8 | 495 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 477 | 413 | 113 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 108 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 274 | 368 | 368 | 736 | 94 | 360 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 144 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 314 | 236 | 550 | 42 | 255 | 20 | 13 | 267 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 273 | 633 | 355 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 502 | 463 | 111 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 122 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 240 | 290 | 356 | 647 | 117 | 306 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 553 | 498 | 102 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 199 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 205 | 271 | 289 | 560 | 84 | 319 | 36 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 155 | 142 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 261 | 309 | 458 | 767 | 197 | 305 | 26 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 111 | 103 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 269 | 272 | 540 | 39 | 306 | 26 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 266 | 250 | 78 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 312 | 346 | 416 | 762 | 104 | 356 | 17 | 5 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 204 | 185 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 227 | 292 | 297 | 589 | 70 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 429 | 400 | 90 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 110 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 272 | 318 | 590 | 92 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 39 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 351 | 385 | 459 | 844 | 108 | 401 | 18 | 5 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 477 | 433 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 134 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 236 | 303 | 309 | 613 | 74 | 330 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 151 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 237 | 172 | 409 | 26 | 204 | 26 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 360 | 273 | 633 | 375 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Pirates | — | 26 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 350 | 440 | 350 | 790 | 438 | 19 | 12 | 352 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 502 | 463 | 111 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 122 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 240 | 290 | 356 | 647 | 117 | 314 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A RAW | West Virginia Power | — | 502 | 449 | 128 | 40 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 95 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 285 | 353 | 430 | 783 | 145 | 348 | 19 | 8 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 553 | 498 | 102 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 199 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 205 | 271 | 289 | 560 | 84 | 330 | 36 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 553 | 480 | 124 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 139 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 258 | 344 | 373 | 717 | 115 | 350 | 25 | 10 | 321 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 208 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 302 | 438 | 739 | 183 | 310 | 26 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 227 | 197 | 49 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 249 | 333 | 431 | 765 | 183 | 284 | 20 | 10 | 334 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 377 | 353 | 102 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 289 | 323 | 374 | 697 | 85 | 350 | 19 | 4 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 377 | 346 | 108 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 312 | 358 | 413 | 772 | 101 | 361 | 16 | 6 | 341 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 204 | 185 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 227 | 292 | 297 | 589 | 70 | 317 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 204 | 176 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 244 | 342 | 324 | 665 | 80 | 325 | 25 | 13 | 306 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 437 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 282 | 330 | 611 | 94 | 309 | 25 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 421 | 112 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 335 | 385 | 720 | 119 | 329 | 21 | 9 | 323 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 477 | 433 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 134 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 236 | 303 | 309 | 613 | 74 | 332 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 477 | 413 | 113 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 108 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 274 | 368 | 368 | 736 | 94 | 360 | 23 | 11 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 151 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 237 | 172 | 409 | 26 | 206 | 26 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 144 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 314 | 236 | 550 | 42 | 255 | 20 | 13 | 267 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 360 | 261 | 621 | 355 | 27 | 8 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | West Virginia Power | — | 502 | 464 | 111 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 122 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 239 | 290 | 356 | 646 | 116 | 306 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 553 | 503 | 102 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 199 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 203 | 271 | 286 | 557 | 83 | 319 | 36 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 211 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 302 | 431 | 733 | 180 | 305 | 26 | 5 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 377 | 356 | 102 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 287 | 323 | 371 | 694 | 84 | 341 | 19 | 4 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 204 | 185 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 227 | 292 | 297 | 589 | 70 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 437 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 117 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 282 | 330 | 611 | 94 | 307 | 25 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 477 | 432 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 134 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 236 | 303 | 310 | 613 | 74 | 330 | 28 | 7 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 169 | 149 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 237 | 174 | 411 | 27 | 204 | 26 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3003 | 2750 | 643 | 140 | 12 | 30 | 189 | 813 | 29 | 21 | 29 | 234 | 290 | 326 | 616 | 92 | 318 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -105 | -7 | +0 | +11 | +65 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 139 | 30 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 176 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 234 | 289 | 324 | 614 | 91 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -23 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAMidland RockHounds · 169 PAwOBA .261 → .195 (−66)K% 20.1% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.12% | ÷0.946 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.02% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 8.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 16.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.132 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .261 → .195; ISO .042 → .028; BABIP .255 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 477 PAwOBA .327 → .274 (−53)K% 22.6% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.90% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.87% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.968 | 26.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.21% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×0.968 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×0.968 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 1.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .327 → .274; ISO .094 → .078; BABIP .360 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 429 PAwOBA .297 → .264 (−33)K% 21.4% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.45% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.39% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.53% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×0.978 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×1.046 | ×0.978 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×1.046 | ×0.978 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.34% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .297 → .264; ISO .112 → .098; BABIP .314 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Potomac Nationals · 39 PAwOBA .481 → .361 (−120)K% 12.8% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.982 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.94% | ÷1.050 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 35.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.958 | 2.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.368 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 4.07% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .481 → .361; ISO .194 → .122; BABIP .483 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 204 PAwOBA .302 → .266 (−35)K% 24.5% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.933 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .302 → .266; ISO .080 → .072; BABIP .325 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAltoona Curve · 266 PAwOBA .362 → .330 (−32)K% 13.5% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.39% | ÷1.004 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.14% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×0.998 | 29.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.22% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×0.998 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×0.998 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.39% | ÷0.912 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .362 → .330; ISO .122 → .107; BABIP .374 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 111 PAwOBA .271 → .240 (−32)K% 21.6% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷0.977 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.044 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 25.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.847 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 108, K 95, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .271 → .240; ISO .050 → .041; BABIP .329 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAltoona Curve · 155 PAwOBA .350 → .317 (−33)K% 20.6% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.10% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 19.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.38% | ÷1.020 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 9.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷0.833 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .350 → .317; ISO .210 → .194; BABIP .317 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).