AJ Reed
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAACOL | 556 | .261/.361/.525 | 34 | 0 | 94 | — | .211/.287/.414 | |
| 2018 | 25 | AAACOL | 540 | .255/.351/.506 | 28 | 0 | 86 | — | .207/.279/.402 | |
| 2019 | 26 | AAACWS | 267 | .216/.317/.437 | 13 | 0 | 51 | — | .165/.238/.318 | |
| 2019 | 26 | MLBCWS | 49 | .136/.208/.205 | 1 | 0 | 15 | -1.0 | ||
| 2020 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 135 | 125 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 326 | 528 | 854 | 256 | 314 | 24 | 6 | 372 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 237 | 205 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 332 | 412 | 571 | 983 | 239 | 383 | 21 | 11 | 422 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 385 | 318 | 110 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 59 | 73 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 346 | 454 | 638 | 1.092 | 292 | 385 | 19 | 15 | 466 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 46 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 154 | 258 | 17 | 13 | 318 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 141 | 122 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 271 | 262 | 534 | 98 | 236 | 34 | 13 | 251 | 55 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +3 | -1.3 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 296 | 261 | 76 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 32 | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 291 | 371 | 556 | 926 | 264 | 337 | 23 | 11 | 400 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 556 | 476 | 124 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 72 | 146 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 361 | 525 | 886 | 265 | 299 | 26 | 13 | 384 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 540 | 462 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 28 | 64 | 128 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 351 | 506 | 857 | 251 | 285 | 24 | 12 | 369 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 49 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 205 | 413 | 68 | 217 | 43 | 8 | 192 | 15 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 267 | 231 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 317 | 437 | 754 | 221 | 272 | 31 | 11 | 333 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 190 | 166 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 255 | 247 | 502 | 90 | 232 | 36 | 12 | 235 | 45 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -13 | +4 | -2.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 135 | 127 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 259 | 402 | 661 | 189 | 266 | 32 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 237 | 214 | 61 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 343 | 477 | 820 | 192 | 345 | 26 | 8 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 385 | 337 | 97 | 13 | 3 | 21 | 40 | 106 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 370 | 531 | 901 | 243 | 344 | 28 | 10 | 383 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 141 | 122 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 271 | 262 | 534 | 98 | 236 | 34 | 13 | 250 | 55 | -8 | +0 | -0 | -8 | +3 | -1.3 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 296 | 270 | 63 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 296 | 426 | 722 | 193 | 289 | 29 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 556 | 498 | 105 | 20 | 0 | 27 | 50 | 190 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 287 | 414 | 700 | 203 | 270 | 34 | 9 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 540 | 482 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 44 | 168 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 279 | 402 | 682 | 195 | 247 | 31 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 49 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 205 | 413 | 68 | 217 | 43 | 8 | 191 | 15 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +1 | -1.0 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 267 | 242 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 105 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 238 | 318 | 556 | 153 | 234 | 39 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 135 | 127 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 259 | 402 | 661 | 189 | 278 | 32 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 135 | 125 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 326 | 528 | 854 | 256 | 314 | 24 | 6 | 372 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 668 | 591 | 169 | 27 | 4 | 32 | 63 | 180 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 360 | 508 | 867 | 222 | 353 | 27 | 9 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 668 | 562 | 187 | 33 | 5 | 35 | 92 | 130 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 431 | 596 | 1.027 | 263 | 374 | 19 | 14 | 441 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 392 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 135 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 286 | 370 | 656 | 161 | 276 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 383 | 96 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 50 | 115 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 339 | 462 | 801 | 211 | 308 | 26 | 11 | 352 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 556 | 498 | 105 | 20 | 0 | 27 | 50 | 190 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 287 | 414 | 700 | 203 | 273 | 34 | 9 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 556 | 476 | 124 | 24 | 0 | 34 | 72 | 146 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 361 | 525 | 886 | 265 | 299 | 26 | 13 | 384 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 540 | 482 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 44 | 168 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 279 | 402 | 682 | 195 | 256 | 31 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 540 | 462 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 28 | 64 | 128 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 351 | 506 | 857 | 251 | 285 | 24 | 12 | 369 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 286 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 126 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 233 | 301 | 534 | 140 | 235 | 40 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 275 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 33 | 105 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 300 | 400 | 700 | 196 | 264 | 33 | 10 | 311 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 135 | 126 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 259 | 405 | 664 | 190 | 266 | 32 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 668 | 595 | 169 | 27 | 4 | 32 | 63 | 180 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 360 | 504 | 864 | 220 | 344 | 27 | 9 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 392 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 135 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 286 | 370 | 656 | 161 | 272 | 31 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 556 | 498 | 105 | 20 | 0 | 27 | 50 | 190 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 287 | 414 | 700 | 203 | 270 | 34 | 9 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 540 | 487 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 23 | 44 | 168 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 279 | 398 | 678 | 193 | 247 | 31 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 286 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 126 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 233 | 301 | 534 | 140 | 231 | 40 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 190 | 166 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 255 | 247 | 502 | 90 | 232 | 36 | 12 | 235 | 94 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -13 | +4 | -2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 568 | 89 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 75 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 255 | 248 | 503 | 92 | 231 | 36 | 12 | 235 | 94 | -42 | +0 | -2 | -46 | +14 | -7.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2652 | 2376 | 529 | 102 | 9 | 111 | 226 | 842 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 223 | 296 | 413 | 709 | 191 | 288 | 32 | 9 | 308 | 94 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -13 | +4 | -2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 27 | 55 | 206 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 294 | 411 | 705 | 189 | 287 | 32 | 8 | 308 | 94 | -42 | +0 | -2 | -46 | +14 | -7.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 267 PAwOBA .325 → .244 (−81)K% 31.5% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.46% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.01% | ÷1.061 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 14.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.212 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 6.24% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .325 → .244; ISO .221 → .157; BABIP .272 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 540 PAwOBA .364 → .295 (−68)K% 23.7% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.70% | ÷0.982 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.30% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.56% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 17.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷0.974 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.38% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 7.10% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .364 → .295; ISO .251 → .202; BABIP .285 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 556 PAwOBA .376 → .307 (−69)K% 26.3% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.26% | ÷0.992 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.41% | ÷1.028 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 8.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | ×0.967 | ×1.048 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷0.926 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×1.048 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.30% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 8.74% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .376 → .307; ISO .265 → .215; BABIP .299 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 296 PAwOBA .391 → .309 (−82)K% 22.6% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.64% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 18.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.34% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 8.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.73% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 6.09% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .391 → .309; ISO .264 → .198; BABIP .337 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 385 PAwOBA .458 → .383 (−76)K% 19.0% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.96% | ÷0.924 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.06% | ÷1.031 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷0.985 | ×0.910 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 25.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×0.994 | ×1.012 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.39% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 9.07% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 85, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .458 → .383; ISO .292 → .257; BABIP .385 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 237 PAwOBA .415 → .354 (−61)K% 20.7% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.68% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.55% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 24.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 8.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.983 | ×1.042 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.05% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .415 → .354; ISO .239 → .198; BABIP .383 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 135 PAwOBA .361 → .268 (−93)K% 23.7% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.70% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.28% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×1.015 | 16.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×1.015 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.959 | ×1.015 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 103, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .361 → .268; ISO .256 → .180; BABIP .314 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .