Bubba Starling

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1992-08-03

Age (2027)34

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	26	AAAKC	285	.310/.362/.448	7	9	69	—	.235/.273/.328
2019	26	MLBKC	197	.215/.255/.317	4	2	63	-0.3
2020	27	MLBKC	64	.169/.222/.237	1	0	30	-0.3
2021	28	AAAKC	105	.258/.308/.557	7	1	65	—	.202/.240/.424
2022	29	No MLB games played
2023	30	No MLB games played
2024	31	No MLB games played
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2020

Speed63

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	19	ROK	Burlington Royals	—	234	200	55	8	2	10	28	70	3	10	1	275	369	485	854	210	372	30	12	375	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	Lexington Legends	—	498	435	105	21	4	13	53	128	6	22	3	241	332	398	730	156	309	26	11	326	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	549	482	105	23	4	9	49	150	13	17	2	218	307	338	645	120	293	27	9	293	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	84	79	14	5	0	0	3	30	2	0	0	177	226	241	467	63	286	36	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	367	331	84	19	4	10	30	91	2	4	5	254	319	426	745	172	319	25	8	328	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	51	44	17	4	0	2	7	17	0	2	1	386	471	614	1.084	227	600	33	14	473	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	91	84	23	2	0	4	6	25	1	5	0	274	330	440	770	167	345	27	7	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	176	166	30	8	0	2	7	64	0	1	0	181	214	265	479	84	277	36	4	213	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	255	233	43	15	1	5	15	81	6	10	1	185	252	322	574	137	257	32	6	259	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	303	278	69	14	1	7	19	65	3	5	4	248	303	381	685	133	301	21	6	304	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	41	35	9	2	0	0	5	6	0	1	0	257	350	314	664	57	310	15	12	302	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	ROK	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	25	19	7	3	0	4	5	6	1	0	0	368	520	1.158	1.678	789	333	24	20	656	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	197	186	40	7	0	4	9	56	1	2	0	215	255	317	572	102	286	28	5	257	63	-9	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.3
2019	26	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	285	261	81	11	2	7	21	59	0	9	3	310	362	448	810	138	374	21	7	357	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	64	59	10	1	0	1	4	27	0	0	0	169	222	237	460	68	281	42	6	209	30	-5	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	28	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	97	25	6	1	7	7	25	0	1	0	258	308	557	864	299	273	24	7	369	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	261	245	50	8	0	5	13	83	1	2	0	204	247	298	545	94	285	32	5	245	52	-15	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	19	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	—	234	213	39	5	1	7	17	99	3	10	1	183	253	315	568	131	293	42	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	498	453	89	15	4	8	35	160	6	22	3	196	263	300	563	104	274	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	549	502	94	20	3	8	29	203	13	17	2	187	250	287	537	100	282	37	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	367	343	73	15	4	9	19	108	2	4	5	213	258	359	617	146	279	29	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	51	48	14	3	0	2	3	24	0	2	1	292	333	479	812	188	551	47	6	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	176	168	24	6	0	1	5	79	0	1	0	143	168	196	364	54	252	45	3	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	255	238	34	11	1	4	10	96	6	10	1	143	197	248	445	105	212	38	4	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	303	284	61	12	1	6	13	79	3	5	4	215	257	327	584	113	273	26	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	41	36	8	2	0	0	4	8	0	1	0	222	300	278	578	56	278	20	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	ROK MLE	Idaho Falls Chukars	—	25	21	5	2	0	3	3	9	1	0	0	238	360	762	1.122	524	199	36	12	421	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	197	186	40	7	0	4	9	56	1	2	0	215	255	317	572	102	286	28	5	261	63	-9	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.3
2019	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	285	268	63	8	1	5	14	78	0	9	3	235	273	328	601	93	312	27	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	64	59	10	1	0	1	4	27	0	0	0	169	222	237	460	68	281	42	6	213	30	-5	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	99	20	5	1	5	5	30	0	1	0	202	240	424	665	222	218	29	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	—	234	213	39	5	1	7	17	99	3	10	1	183	253	315	568	131	296	42	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK RAW	Burlington Royals	—	234	200	55	8	2	10	28	70	3	10	1	275	369	485	854	210	372	30	12	375	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	498	453	89	15	4	8	35	160	6	22	3	196	263	300	563	104	280	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A RAW	Lexington Legends	—	498	435	105	21	4	13	53	128	6	22	3	241	332	398	730	156	309	26	11	326	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	633	580	108	23	3	10	33	234	15	17	2	186	248	288	536	102	287	37	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	633	561	119	28	4	9	52	180	15	17	2	212	296	324	621	112	292	28	8	283	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	509	475	107	23	4	14	28	162	3	11	6	225	273	379	652	154	309	32	6	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	509	459	124	25	4	16	43	133	3	11	6	270	336	447	783	176	346	26	8	345	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	431	406	58	18	1	5	15	176	6	11	1	143	185	229	414	86	233	41	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	431	399	73	23	1	7	22	145	6	11	1	183	237	298	535	115	265	34	5	240	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	303	284	61	12	1	6	13	79	3	5	4	215	257	327	584	113	276	26	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	303	278	69	14	1	7	19	65	3	5	4	248	303	381	685	133	301	21	6	304	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	66	58	13	4	0	3	6	16	1	1	0	224	308	448	756	224	256	24	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	66	54	16	5	0	4	10	12	1	1	0	296	415	611	1.026	315	316	18	15	436	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	454	104	15	1	9	23	134	1	11	3	229	268	326	594	97	303	28	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	482	447	121	18	2	11	30	115	1	11	3	271	318	394	712	123	340	24	6	316	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	64	59	10	1	0	1	4	27	0	0	0	169	222	237	460	68	281	42	6	213	30	-5	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.3
2020	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	64	59	10	1	0	1	4	27	0	0	0	169	222	237	460	68	281	42	6	209	30	-5	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.3
2021	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	99	20	5	1	5	5	30	0	1	0	202	240	424	665	222	231	29	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	97	25	6	1	7	7	25	0	1	0	258	308	557	864	299	273	24	7	369	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Burlington Royals	—	234	212	39	5	1	7	17	99	3	10	1	184	253	316	569	132	293	42	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Lexington Legends	—	498	454	89	15	4	8	35	160	6	22	3	196	263	300	563	104	274	32	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	633	580	108	23	3	10	33	234	15	17	2	186	248	288	536	102	282	37	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	509	473	107	23	4	14	28	162	3	11	6	226	273	381	653	154	312	32	6	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	431	407	58	18	1	5	15	176	6	11	1	143	185	229	414	86	228	41	3	183	10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	303	284	61	12	1	6	13	79	3	5	4	215	257	327	584	113	273	26	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	66	59	13	4	0	3	6	16	1	1	0	220	308	441	748	220	248	24	9	317	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	455	104	15	1	9	23	134	1	11	3	229	268	325	593	97	301	28	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	64	60	10	1	0	1	4	27	0	0	0	167	222	233	456	67	281	42	6	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	99	20	5	1	5	5	30	0	1	0	202	240	424	665	222	218	29	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	261	245	50	8	0	5	13	83	1	2	0	204	247	298	545	94	285	32	5	245	53	-15	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	610	124	20	0	12	32	207	2	5	0	203	245	295	540	92	285	32	5	245	53	-37	+1	-1	+5	+14	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3325	3081	609	121	16	68	179	1117	38	89	20	198	250	314	564	116	283	34	5	247	53	-15	+0	-0	+2	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	119	24	3	13	35	218	7	17	4	198	250	312	562	115	283	34	5	247	53	-37	+1	-1	+5	+14	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 105 PAwOBA .361 → .264 (−98)K% 23.8% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.81%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	29.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.56%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.28%	÷1.056	×0.930	×0.962	×0.982	12.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.962	×0.982	6.68%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷0.936	×0.920	×0.962	×0.982	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	9.72%	÷1.027	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.51%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 96, 3B 87, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .361 → .264; ISO .299 → .207; BABIP .273 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 285 PAwOBA .351 → .270 (−81)K% 20.7% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.70%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	27.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.37%	÷1.065	×0.710	—	×1.003	4.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.20%	÷1.024	×0.900	×0.965	×1.003	25.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷0.973	×0.810	×0.965	×1.003	4.39%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷1.038	×0.810	×0.965	×1.003	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	3.47%	÷1.023	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.65%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .351 → .270; ISO .138 → .102; BABIP .374 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 41 PAwOBA .295 → .253 (−42)K% 14.6% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷1.007	×1.290	—	—	18.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.20%	÷1.018	×0.710	—	×1.018	8.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.14%	÷1.020	×0.900	—	×1.018	21.69%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.936	×0.810	—	×1.018	6.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.101	×0.780	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .295 → .253; ISO .057 → .052; BABIP .310 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKIdaho Falls Chukars · 25 PAwOBA .637 → .421 (−216)K% 24.0% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	34.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×0.940	11.47%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	2.71%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	15.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	30.77%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.940	21.69%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .637 → .421; ISO .789 → .544; BABIP .333 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 303 PAwOBA .296 → .251 (−45)K% 21.5% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.45%	÷1.054	×1.290	—	—	26.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.27%	÷1.076	×0.710	—	×1.033	4.27%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.00%
Singles /BIP	22.07%	÷1.024	×0.900	×1.019	×1.033	20.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.57%	÷0.985	×0.810	×1.019	×1.033	5.69%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.914	×0.810	×1.019	×1.033	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	3.29%	÷0.956	×0.780	—	×1.033	2.77%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 111, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .296 → .251; ISO .133 → .111; BABIP .301 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 255 PAwOBA .253 → .195 (−58)K% 31.8% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.76%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	37.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×1.012	3.86%
HBP% /PA	2.35%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	2.07%
Singles /BIP	14.47%	÷1.061	×0.920	×0.970	×1.012	12.32%
Doubles /BIP	9.87%	÷1.029	×0.840	×0.970	×1.012	7.90%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.029	×0.940	×0.970	×1.012	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	3.29%	÷0.967	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.75%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 112, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .253 → .195; ISO .137 → .107; BABIP .257 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 176 PAwOBA .208 → .165 (−43)K% 36.4% → 45.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.36%	÷1.040	×1.290	—	—	45.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.98%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×1.048	2.94%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.61%	÷0.968	×0.900	×0.955	×1.048	18.25%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷0.929	×0.810	×0.955	×1.048	6.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.068	×0.810	×0.955	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷1.054	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.52%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .208 → .165; ISO .084 → .063; BABIP .277 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 367 PAwOBA .320 → .269 (−51)K% 24.8% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.80%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	29.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.90%	÷1.072	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.30%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.49%
Singles /BIP	21.25%	÷1.027	×0.920	×0.975	×1.027	19.08%
Doubles /BIP	7.92%	÷1.024	×0.840	×0.975	×1.027	6.50%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.052	×0.940	×0.975	×1.027	1.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.883	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.88%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 110, K 105, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .320 → .269; ISO .172 → .151; BABIP .319 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).