Matt Skole
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | AAASyracuse Chie… | 241 | .222/.307/.453 | 11 | 0 | 61 | — | .176/.235/.353 | |
| 2018 | 29 | AAACWS | 500 | .237/.338/.404 | 14 | 3 | 50 | — | .181/.256/.292 | |
| 2019 | 30 | AAACWS | 392 | .248/.388/.497 | 21 | 0 | 76 | — | .186/.276/.355 | |
| 2019 | 30 | MLBCWS | 80 | .208/.278/.236 | 0 | 0 | 49 | -1.4 | ||
| 2020 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 76 | 70 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 314 | 360 | 486 | 846 | 171 | 407 | 22 | 7 | 367 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 448 | 343 | 98 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 94 | 116 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 286 | 444 | 574 | 1.019 | 289 | 345 | 26 | 21 | 437 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 74 | 59 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 305 | 431 | 525 | 956 | 220 | 375 | 24 | 18 | 411 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 64 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 375 | 429 | 804 | 245 | 214 | 28 | 23 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 544 | 461 | 111 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 78 | 127 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 353 | 399 | 752 | 158 | 301 | 23 | 14 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 182 | 151 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 361 | 457 | 818 | 219 | 255 | 19 | 15 | 361 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 365 | 314 | 73 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 92 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 334 | 398 | 732 | 166 | 286 | 25 | 12 | 328 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 573 | 499 | 122 | 22 | 1 | 24 | 66 | 119 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 244 | 339 | 437 | 775 | 192 | 273 | 21 | 12 | 345 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 167 | 135 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 376 | 341 | 716 | 104 | 287 | 20 | 18 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 241 | 212 | 47 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 307 | 453 | 760 | 231 | 252 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 500 | 431 | 102 | 28 | 1 | 14 | 61 | 125 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 338 | 404 | 742 | 167 | 298 | 25 | 12 | 333 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 278 | 236 | 515 | 28 | 357 | 39 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -8 | +2 | -1.4 |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 392 | 314 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 70 | 99 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 388 | 497 | 884 | 248 | 286 | 25 | 18 | 386 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 278 | 236 | 515 | 28 | 357 | 39 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -8 | +2 | -1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 76 | 73 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 240 | 342 | 582 | 123 | 321 | 32 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 448 | 375 | 79 | 14 | 0 | 19 | 62 | 160 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 211 | 329 | 400 | 729 | 189 | 281 | 36 | 14 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 544 | 487 | 94 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 162 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 274 | 308 | 582 | 115 | 260 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 182 | 159 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 289 | 352 | 641 | 157 | 215 | 22 | 11 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 365 | 330 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 110 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 121 | 257 | 30 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 573 | 525 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 21 | 40 | 151 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 354 | 614 | 158 | 229 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 241 | 221 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 235 | 353 | 588 | 176 | 208 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 500 | 452 | 82 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 152 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 256 | 292 | 548 | 111 | 243 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 278 | 236 | 515 | 28 | 357 | 39 | 9 | 240 | 49 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -8 | +2 | -1.4 |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 392 | 344 | 64 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 41 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 276 | 355 | 631 | 169 | 226 | 31 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 598 | 511 | 108 | 24 | 1 | 21 | 73 | 211 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 211 | 315 | 386 | 700 | 174 | 302 | 35 | 12 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 598 | 472 | 138 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 112 | 151 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 292 | 432 | 555 | 987 | 263 | 360 | 25 | 19 | 425 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL MLE | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 64 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 375 | 429 | 804 | 245 | 214 | 28 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL RAW | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 64 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 375 | 429 | 804 | 245 | 214 | 28 | 23 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 544 | 487 | 94 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 162 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 274 | 308 | 582 | 115 | 263 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 544 | 461 | 111 | 29 | 1 | 14 | 78 | 127 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 241 | 353 | 399 | 752 | 158 | 301 | 23 | 14 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 489 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 150 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 196 | 275 | 329 | 604 | 133 | 246 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 547 | 465 | 109 | 23 | 1 | 20 | 72 | 127 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 234 | 343 | 417 | 760 | 183 | 276 | 23 | 13 | 339 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 740 | 679 | 133 | 23 | 1 | 27 | 51 | 195 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 257 | 352 | 609 | 156 | 229 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 740 | 634 | 154 | 27 | 1 | 27 | 96 | 152 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 347 | 416 | 763 | 174 | 276 | 21 | 13 | 342 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 241 | 221 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 235 | 353 | 588 | 176 | 211 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 241 | 212 | 47 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 307 | 453 | 760 | 231 | 252 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 500 | 452 | 82 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 152 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 256 | 292 | 548 | 111 | 248 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 500 | 431 | 102 | 28 | 1 | 14 | 61 | 125 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 237 | 338 | 404 | 742 | 167 | 298 | 25 | 12 | 333 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 472 | 416 | 79 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 154 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 277 | 334 | 611 | 144 | 253 | 33 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 472 | 386 | 93 | 17 | 0 | 21 | 77 | 130 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 369 | 448 | 817 | 207 | 299 | 28 | 16 | 361 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 598 | 516 | 108 | 24 | 1 | 21 | 73 | 211 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 209 | 315 | 382 | 696 | 172 | 287 | 35 | 12 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 544 | 485 | 94 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 52 | 162 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 274 | 309 | 583 | 115 | 260 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 489 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 150 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 196 | 275 | 329 | 604 | 133 | 243 | 27 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 740 | 678 | 133 | 23 | 1 | 27 | 51 | 195 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 257 | 353 | 610 | 156 | 229 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 241 | 222 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 235 | 351 | 587 | 176 | 208 | 30 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 500 | 451 | 82 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 40 | 152 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 256 | 293 | 548 | 111 | 243 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 472 | 419 | 79 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 48 | 154 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 277 | 332 | 609 | 143 | 248 | 33 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 80 | 72 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 278 | 236 | 515 | 28 | 357 | 39 | 9 | 240 | 66 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -8 | +2 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 122 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 279 | 236 | 515 | 27 | 358 | 39 | 9 | 240 | 66 | -40 | +0 | -14 | -68 | +14 | -11.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3706 | 3304 | 640 | 135 | 6 | 110 | 344 | 1115 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 194 | 274 | 338 | 612 | 144 | 251 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -8 | +2 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 112 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 60 | 196 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 273 | 337 | 610 | 143 | 251 | 30 | 9 | 265 | 66 | -40 | +0 | -14 | -68 | +14 | -11.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 392 PAwOBA .378 → .280 (−98)K% 25.3% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.26% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.84% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 10.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.53% | ÷1.061 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 15.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.77% | ÷1.212 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 6.58% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .378 → .280; ISO .248 → .183; BABIP .286 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 500 PAwOBA .325 → .242 (−84)K% 25.0% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.28% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×0.982 | 16.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷1.077 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.982 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.982 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.319 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .325 → .242; ISO .167 → .112; BABIP .298 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 241 PAwOBA .326 → .258 (−67)K% 25.3% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.31% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.79% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.25% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 12.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.60% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 7.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.28% | ÷0.980 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 6.19% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .326 → .258; ISO .231 → .189; BABIP .252 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 573 PAwOBA .335 → .268 (−68)K% 20.8% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.77% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.74% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 16.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.44% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .335 → .268; ISO .192 → .164; BABIP .273 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 365 PAwOBA .322 → .262 (−60)K% 25.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.21% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.78% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.72% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.31% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .322 → .262; ISO .166 → .130; BABIP .286 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 182 PAwOBA .354 → .287 (−67)K% 19.2% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.38% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 14.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.76% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.98% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .354 → .287; ISO .219 → .166; BABIP .255 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 544 PAwOBA .331 → .259 (−72)K% 23.3% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.35% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.97% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.06% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.68% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.19% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .331 → .259; ISO .158 → .120; BABIP .301 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AHagerstown Suns · 448 PAwOBA .430 → .317 (−113)K% 25.9% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.89% | ÷0.970 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.31% | ÷0.960 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 13.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.35% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.93% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 8.40% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 94, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .430 → .317; ISO .289 → .203; BABIP .345 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .