Derek Fisher
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 26 | MLBTOR | 39 | .226/.368/.452 | 1 | 0 | 126 | -0.1 | ||
| 2021 | 27 | AAAMIL | 85 | .205/.271/.308 | 1 | 0 | 34 | — | .188/.235/.275 | |
| 2022 | 28 | AAAMIN | 108 | .158/.259/.305 | 3 | 0 | 13 | — | .121/.194/.222 | |
| 2023 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 398 | 344 | 90 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 95 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 262 | 357 | 471 | 828 | 209 | 314 | 24 | 12 | 364 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 171 | 151 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 305 | 386 | 510 | 896 | 205 | 370 | 22 | 11 | 395 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 73 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 397 | 424 | 821 | 169 | 382 | 32 | 19 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 118 | 107 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 290 | 350 | 505 | 855 | 215 | 338 | 22 | 8 | 373 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 448 | 371 | 91 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 128 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 245 | 374 | 431 | 805 | 186 | 329 | 29 | 17 | 362 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 166 | 146 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 212 | 307 | 356 | 663 | 144 | 299 | 33 | 10 | 303 | 88 | -2 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 384 | 343 | 109 | 26 | 1 | 21 | 35 | 74 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 318 | 386 | 583 | 969 | 265 | 352 | 19 | 9 | 418 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 86 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 214 | 392 | 607 | 228 | 257 | 49 | 6 | 257 | 60 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +2 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 281 | 239 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 251 | 363 | 435 | 798 | 184 | 347 | 30 | 14 | 358 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 167 | 146 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 57 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 185 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 185 | 244 | 34 | 13 | 297 | 86 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -5 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 270 | 224 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 40 | 67 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 286 | 403 | 522 | 925 | 237 | 347 | 25 | 15 | 405 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 39 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 368 | 452 | 820 | 226 | 300 | 28 | 18 | 355 | 126 | +1 | -0 | -3 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 85 | 78 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 308 | 578 | 103 | 278 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 108 | 95 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 259 | 305 | 565 | 147 | 218 | 34 | 11 | 260 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 458 | 402 | 78 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 50 | 164 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 194 | 288 | 376 | 664 | 182 | 272 | 36 | 11 | 296 | 87 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -15 | +10 | -1.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 398 | 358 | 75 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 33 | 138 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 209 | 284 | 372 | 655 | 162 | 285 | 35 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 171 | 158 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 222 | 281 | 354 | 635 | 133 | 307 | 30 | 7 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 118 | 109 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 248 | 299 | 413 | 712 | 165 | 315 | 29 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 448 | 393 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 148 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 221 | 315 | 356 | 672 | 135 | 323 | 33 | 12 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 166 | 147 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 211 | 301 | 354 | 655 | 143 | 299 | 33 | 10 | 298 | 88 | -2 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 384 | 353 | 102 | 24 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 96 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 289 | 341 | 507 | 848 | 218 | 346 | 25 | 7 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 86 | 79 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 214 | 392 | 607 | 228 | 257 | 49 | 6 | 258 | 60 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +2 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 281 | 250 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 112 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 208 | 295 | 352 | 647 | 144 | 330 | 40 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 167 | 146 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 57 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 185 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 185 | 244 | 34 | 13 | 296 | 86 | -3 | +1 | -2 | -5 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 270 | 237 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 85 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 245 | 332 | 435 | 767 | 190 | 322 | 31 | 10 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 39 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 368 | 452 | 820 | 226 | 300 | 28 | 18 | 354 | 126 | +1 | -0 | -3 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 85 | 80 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 275 | 510 | 88 | 262 | 32 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 108 | 99 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 194 | 222 | 417 | 101 | 183 | 42 | 7 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 642 | 583 | 125 | 17 | 6 | 21 | 51 | 215 | 5 | 34 | 9 | 214 | 283 | 372 | 655 | 158 | 297 | 33 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 642 | 554 | 151 | 23 | 9 | 24 | 80 | 155 | 5 | 34 | 9 | 273 | 369 | 477 | 846 | 204 | 336 | 24 | 12 | 373 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 503 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 58 | 181 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 227 | 310 | 368 | 678 | 141 | 320 | 32 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 566 | 478 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 21 | 83 | 154 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 255 | 369 | 448 | 816 | 192 | 331 | 27 | 15 | 364 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 500 | 133 | 28 | 2 | 22 | 41 | 150 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 266 | 329 | 462 | 791 | 196 | 336 | 27 | 7 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 550 | 489 | 140 | 30 | 2 | 26 | 52 | 128 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 286 | 362 | 515 | 877 | 229 | 338 | 23 | 9 | 383 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 329 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 154 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 195 | 274 | 356 | 630 | 161 | 315 | 42 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 367 | 318 | 73 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 44 | 127 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 230 | 329 | 425 | 753 | 195 | 330 | 35 | 12 | 335 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 383 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 19 | 48 | 142 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 222 | 315 | 410 | 725 | 188 | 296 | 32 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 370 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 21 | 61 | 124 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 246 | 359 | 462 | 821 | 216 | 310 | 28 | 14 | 364 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 39 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 368 | 452 | 820 | 226 | 300 | 28 | 18 | 354 | 126 | +1 | -0 | -3 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB RAW | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 39 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 368 | 452 | 820 | 226 | 300 | 28 | 18 | 355 | 126 | +1 | -0 | -3 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 85 | 80 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 275 | 510 | 88 | 269 | 32 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 85 | 78 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 308 | 578 | 103 | 278 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 108 | 99 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 194 | 222 | 417 | 101 | 192 | 42 | 7 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 108 | 95 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 259 | 305 | 565 | 147 | 218 | 34 | 11 | 260 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 642 | 581 | 125 | 17 | 6 | 21 | 51 | 215 | 5 | 34 | 9 | 215 | 283 | 373 | 657 | 158 | 292 | 33 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 500 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 58 | 181 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 228 | 310 | 370 | 680 | 142 | 321 | 32 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 550 | 498 | 133 | 28 | 2 | 22 | 41 | 150 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 267 | 329 | 464 | 793 | 197 | 332 | 27 | 7 | 342 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 328 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 154 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 195 | 274 | 357 | 631 | 162 | 313 | 42 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 382 | 85 | 11 | 2 | 19 | 48 | 142 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 223 | 315 | 411 | 726 | 188 | 292 | 32 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 39 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 368 | 438 | 806 | 219 | 300 | 28 | 18 | 354 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 85 | 80 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 275 | 510 | 88 | 262 | 32 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 108 | 98 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 194 | 224 | 419 | 102 | 183 | 42 | 7 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 458 | 402 | 78 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 50 | 164 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 194 | 288 | 376 | 664 | 182 | 272 | 36 | 11 | 296 | 88 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -15 | +10 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 571 | 110 | 17 | 7 | 24 | 71 | 233 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 193 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 180 | 270 | 36 | 11 | 296 | 88 | -10 | +0 | -8 | -21 | +14 | -2.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2794 | 2508 | 555 | 95 | 18 | 93 | 251 | 925 | 22 | 107 | 35 | 221 | 298 | 385 | 683 | 163 | 308 | 33 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -7 | +0 | -6 | -15 | +10 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 129 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 215 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 221 | 297 | 386 | 683 | 165 | 307 | 33 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -10 | +0 | -8 | -21 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 108 PAwOBA .254 → .187 (−67)K% 34.3% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.26% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 11.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.079 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.881 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .254 → .187; ISO .147 → .106; BABIP .218 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANashville Sounds · 85 PAwOBA .257 → .218 (−40)K% 27.1% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.06% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.966 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 18.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 7.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.38% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .257 → .218; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .278 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAARound Rock Express · 270 PAwOBA .395 → .331 (−64)K% 24.8% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.81% | ÷1.022 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.44% | ÷1.030 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.48% | ÷0.966 | ×0.900 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 24.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷0.995 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 4.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.126 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.92% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 7.47% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .395 → .331; ISO .237 → .194; BABIP .347 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 281 PAwOBA .349 → .280 (−69)K% 30.2% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.25% | ÷0.982 | ×1.290 | — | — | 39.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.88% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 9.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.03% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 23.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷0.974 | ×0.810 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.49% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 5.50% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .349 → .280; ISO .184 → .141; BABIP .347 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 384 PAwOBA .408 → .361 (−47)K% 19.3% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.27% | ÷0.992 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.85% | ÷1.028 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.67% | ÷0.926 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 9.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.81% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 6.62% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .408 → .361; ISO .265 → .226; BABIP .352 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 448 PAwOBA .348 → .304 (−44)K% 28.6% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.055 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.96% | ÷0.932 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 11.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 24.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.35% | ÷1.017 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.977 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.196 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 111, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .348 → .304; ISO .186 → .145; BABIP .329 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 118 PAwOBA .365 → .304 (−61)K% 22.0% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 5.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 22.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.88% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 8.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 4.86% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .365 → .304; ISO .215 → .164; BABIP .338 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 398 PAwOBA .357 → .283 (−73)K% 23.9% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.87% | ÷0.924 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.81% | ÷1.031 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.89% | ÷0.985 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.02% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 1.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.43% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 6.21% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 85, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .357 → .283; ISO .209 → .168; BABIP .314 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).