Carl Edwards Jr.

P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	32	MIX3 levels	32	11	70	4.11	4.86	22.6%	14.3%	-0.3	K 19.8% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.62
2025	33	MIX2 levels	19	8	57	4.45	3.72	25.7%	7.8%	0.6	K 22.2% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.15
2026	34	MIX2 levels	26	15	101	5.17	4.05	26.4%	11.2%	1.0	K 21.8% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.36
2027PROJ	35	MLBNYM	115	0	121	4.51	4.54	21.9%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ1% MLB	36	MLBNYM	1	0	1	4.75	4.91	20.9%	9.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	37	MLBNYM	—	—	0	5.09	5.31	19.8%	10.4%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control60Command55FB velo48

CompsMark Serrano (age 33) · Toby Borland (age 35) · Leo Rosales (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.54

K%21.9%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

FB (51%)

CU (34%)

CH-0.9 (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	60	251	79	43	1	0%	1.5	27.4%	18.5%	8.9%	0.5%	2.85	3.40	+0.8
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	60	251	79	43	1	0%	1.5	31.5%	17.1%	14.3%	0.4%	2.85	2.83	+1.2
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	248	87	30	5	0%	1.0	33.4%	12.4%	20.9%	2.2%	3.96	3.05	+1.1
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	61	248	87	30	5	0%	1.0	35.1%	12.1%	23.0%	2.0%	3.96	2.79	+1.3
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	73	0	66	262	94	36	6	0%	0.9	35.9%	13.7%	22.1%	2.4%	2.98	3.12	+1.1
2017	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	73	0	66	262	94	36	6	0%	0.9	35.9%	13.7%	22.1%	2.3%	2.98	3.07	+1.2
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	54	235	70	35	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	14.0%	16.2%	0.9%	2.83	2.83	+1.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	54	235	70	35	2	0%	0.9	29.8%	14.9%	14.9%	0.9%	2.83	2.93	+1.0
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	35	154	37	20	5	0%	0.9	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	3.4%	6.23	4.73	-0.1
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	35	154	37	20	5	0%	0.9	24.0%	13.0%	11.0%	3.2%	6.23	4.57	-0.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	5	0	5	17	6	1	0	0%	0.9	35.3%	5.9%	29.4%	0.0%	1.93	0.86	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	5	0	5	17	6	1	0	0%	0.9	35.3%	5.9%	29.4%	0.0%	1.93	1.17	+0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	1	25	103	36	7	5	4%	0.9	35.8%	6.6%	29.2%	2.9%	4.38	2.50	+0.6
2021	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	1	25	103	36	7	5	4%	0.9	35.0%	6.8%	28.2%	4.9%	4.38	3.67	+0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	76	306	73	29	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	2.6%	2.36	3.79	+0.7
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	76	306	73	29	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	2.6%	2.36	3.69	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	34	156	24	16	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	0.7%	5.08	3.40	+0.5
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	34	156	24	16	3	0%	1.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	1.9%	5.08	4.26	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	19.8%	12.9%	6.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.62	-0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	19.8%	12.9%	6.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.62	-0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	22.6%	14.3%	8.3%	3.2%	4.11	4.86	-0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	22.2%	6.5%	15.7%	3.8%	4.45	4.15	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	22.2%	6.5%	15.7%	3.8%	4.45	4.15	+0.3
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	25.7%	7.8%	18.0%	3.3%	4.45	3.72	+0.6
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	101	447	118	50	14	58%	3.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.36	+0.6
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	15	101	447	118	50	14	58%	3.9	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.4%	5.17	4.36	+0.6
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	15	101	447	118	50	14	58%	3.9	26.4%	11.2%	15.2%	3.1%	5.17	4.05	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			302	0	292	1217	345	149	29	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	2.4%	3.51	3.56	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	NYM	115	0	121	511	112	47	16	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.2%	12.8%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYM	102	0	107	452	94	44	16	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.91	-0.4
2029	37	MLB MLE	NYM	89	0	93	394	78	41	16	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.09	5.31	-0.8
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYM	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.75	4.91	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	10.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.09	5.31	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	0	293	1222	346	149	29	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	2.4%	3.52	3.57	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		207	0	200	834	236	102	20	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	2.4%	3.52	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		488	35	643	2738	705	320	66	7%	1.3	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	2.4%	3.90	3.72	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	11	200	851	219	99	20	7%	1.3	25.8%	11.7%	14.1%	2.4%	3.90	3.72	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carl Edwards Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	21.9%	9.2%	3.2%	—	5.10	20.4%	10.3%	200	+0.56	—	—	—
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	78
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	76
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	76
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	76
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	73
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	71
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	69
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	68
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	67
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	67
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	67
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	65
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	64
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	64
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	77	24.4%	11.1%	1.16	4.17
Lance McCullers ('85-'92, 5 WAR*)	2.6	88	25.7%*	11.1%*	1.13*	3.70*
Mike Hartley ('89-'95, 2 WAR*)	1.6	80	24.3%*	9.9%*	1.09*	4.09*
Joey McLaughlin ('77-'84, 4 WAR*)	2.2	75	21.7%*	10.4%*	1.24*	3.85*
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Al Reyes ('08)	2.1	54	23.2%	10.7%	1.11	3.84