Carl Edwards Jr.

Carl Edwards Jr. P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.01

FIP4.18

K%20.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†5050

FB (51%)

CU (34%)

CH-0.9 (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	0	60	251	79	43	1	0%	1.5	27.4%	18.5%	8.9%	0.5%	2.85	3.40	+0.8
2015	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	0	60	251	79	43	1	0%	1.5	31.5%	17.1%	14.3%	0.4%	2.85	2.83	+1.2
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	61	248	87	30	5	0%	1.0	33.4%	12.4%	20.9%	2.2%	3.96	3.05	+1.1
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	61	248	87	30	5	0%	1.0	35.1%	12.1%	23.0%	2.0%	3.96	2.79	+1.3
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	73	0	66	262	94	36	6	0%	0.9	35.9%	13.7%	22.1%	2.4%	2.98	3.12	+1.1
2017	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	73	0	66	262	94	36	6	0%	0.9	35.9%	13.7%	22.1%	2.3%	2.98	3.07	+1.2
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	54	235	70	35	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	14.0%	16.2%	0.9%	2.83	2.83	+1.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	54	235	70	35	2	0%	0.9	29.8%	14.9%	14.9%	0.9%	2.83	2.93	+1.0
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	35	154	37	20	5	0%	0.9	22.6%	13.2%	9.4%	3.4%	6.23	4.73	-0.1
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	35	154	37	20	5	0%	0.9	24.0%	13.0%	11.0%	3.2%	6.23	4.57	-0.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	5	0	5	17	6	1	0	0%	0.9	35.3%	5.9%	29.4%	0.0%	1.93	0.86	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	5	0	5	17	6	1	0	0%	0.9	35.3%	5.9%	29.4%	0.0%	1.93	1.17	+0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	1	25	103	36	7	5	4%	0.9	35.8%	6.6%	29.2%	2.9%	4.38	2.50	+0.6
2021	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	1	25	103	36	7	5	4%	0.9	35.0%	6.8%	28.2%	4.9%	4.38	3.67	+0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	76	306	73	29	8	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.5%	13.6%	2.6%	2.36	3.79	+0.7
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	76	306	73	29	8	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.5%	14.4%	2.6%	2.36	3.69	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	34	156	24	16	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	0.7%	5.08	3.40	+0.5
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	34	156	24	16	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	10.6%	6.3%	0.7%	5.08	3.40	+0.5
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	34	156	24	16	3	0%	1.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	1.9%	5.08	4.26	+0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.68	-0.1
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.68	-0.1
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	11	70	314	71	45	10	34%	2.2	22.6%	14.3%	8.3%	3.2%	4.11	4.86	-0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	3.8%	4.45	4.21	+0.2
2025	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	21.4%	6.5%	14.9%	3.8%	4.45	4.21	+0.2
2025	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	57	245	63	19	8	42%	3.0	25.7%	7.8%	18.0%	3.3%	4.45	3.72	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			302	0	292	1217	345	149	29	0%	1.0	28.3%	12.2%	16.1%	2.4%	3.51	3.56	+3.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	24	14	91	407	104	49	14	58%	3.8	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.7%	5.66	4.79	—
YTD	34	MLB MLE	New York Mets	24	14	91	407	104	49	14	58%	3.8	20.2%	10.6%	9.6%	3.7%	5.66	4.79	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	NYM	22	14	85	382	93	45	13	64%	3.9	24.3%	11.8%	12.6%	3.4%	5.95	4.40	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	NYM	2	0	6	25	11	4	1	0%	3.0	44.0%	16.0%	28.0%	4.0%	1.50	3.61	—
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	NYM	2	0	6	25	11	4	1	0%	3.0	44.0%	16.0%	28.0%	4.0%	1.50	3.61	—
ROS	34	MLB MLE	NYM	1	1	5	22	4	2	1	100%	5.2	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.18	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	NYM	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	20.4%	9.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.01	4.18	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	96	429	108	51	15	—	—	25.3%	11.9%	13.4%	3.4%	5.57	4.76	+0.1
FULL	34	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	11	47	108	51	15	—	—	229.9%	108.0%	121.9%	31.1%	47.77	14.43	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	NYM	49	0	51	216	46	21	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.80	-0.1
2028	36	MLB MLE	NYM	43	0	45	191	39	20	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.8%	4.94	5.17	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	NYM	38	0	40	167	32	19	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	4.2%	5.32	5.57	-0.4
2027	35	MLB CTX	NYM	47	0	49	207	44	20	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.9%	11.4%	3.4%	4.60	4.80	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	NYM	37	0	39	165	33	17	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.5%	9.8%	3.8%	4.94	5.17	-0.3
2029	37	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	31	131	25	15	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.2%	8.1%	4.2%	5.32	5.57	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		416	1	416	1739	452	203	48	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.91	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	837	218	98	23	0%	1.0	26.0%	11.7%	14.3%	2.8%	3.91	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		486	34	633	2698	686	319	66	7%	1.3	25.4%	11.8%	13.6%	2.4%	3.95	3.79	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	11	200	852	217	101	21	7%	1.3	25.4%	11.8%	13.6%	2.4%	3.95	3.79	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carl Edwards Jr. (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.5%	8.9%	3.0%	—	5.15	20.4%	9.9%	136	+0.62	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	80
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	79
Ramon E Ramirez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	34	SU	3.60	18.4%	6.0%	2.4%	.262	3.49	14.0%	8.2%	40	-0.11	2.37	140	78
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	78
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	77
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	76
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	76
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	75
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	75
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	75
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	75
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	74
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	73
Francisco Rodríguez R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SU	3.77	22.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.248	6.90	19.5%	11.0%	25	+3.13	2.71	141	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	73
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	72
Rafael Dolis R 2022 · 3.61 FIP	34	SU	3.61	19.9%	11.9%	1.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	162	72
George Kontos R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	34	SU	5.01	15.4%	9.0%	3.8%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	290	72
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	20.4%	10.0%	1.37	4.76
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86