Carl Edwards Jr.
P
Syracuse Mets
+0.2
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.24
FIP4.60
xFIP4.43
SIERA4.10
K%22.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL6060
CMD5555
K†5555
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p2421.6%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
FB (51%)
CU (34%)
CH-0.9 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 41 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 79 | 43 | 1 | 27.4% | 18.5% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 3.40 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 60 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 87 | 30 | 5 | 33.4% | 12.4% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 3.10 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 73 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 94 | 36 | 6 | 35.9% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 2.98 | 3.02 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 61 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 70 | 35 | 2 | 30.2% | 14.0% | 1.0% | 2.83 | 2.85 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 39 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 6.23 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 27 | 1 | 25 | 103 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 35.8% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 2.56 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 70 | 0 | 76 | 306 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 2.36 | 3.72 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 35 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 5.08 | 3.40 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 11 | 70 | 314 | 71 | 45 | 10 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 19 | 8 | 57 | 245 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 4.45 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 3 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 18.6% | 16.2% | 2.1% | 5.25 | 4.74 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | NYM | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 59 | 250 | 55 | 28 | 7 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 465 | 23 | 554 | 2343 | 620 | 294 | 52 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 8 | 200 | 845 | 224 | 106 | 19 | 26.5% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 3.70 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carl Edwards Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.78 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 86 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 81 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 78 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 77 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 75 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.10 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 277 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 74 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 74 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 73 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.41 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 176 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.48 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 260 | 73 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 73 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.