Carl Edwards Jr.
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 165 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.12
FIP4.35
K%21.2%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (51%)
CU (34%)
CH-0.9 (14%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 79 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.4% | 18.5% | 8.9% | 0.5% | 2.85 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 41 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 79 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 31.5% | 17.1% | 14.3% | 0.4% | 2.85 | 2.83 | +1.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 87 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 12.4% | 20.9% | 2.1% | 3.96 | 3.03 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 87 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.1% | 12.1% | 23.0% | 2.0% | 3.96 | 2.79 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 73 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 94 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.9% | 13.7% | 22.1% | 2.2% | 2.98 | 3.04 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 73 | 0 | 66 | 262 | 94 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.9% | 13.7% | 22.1% | 2.3% | 2.98 | 3.07 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 70 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.2% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 0.9% | 2.83 | 2.80 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 70 | 35 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.8% | 14.9% | 14.9% | 0.9% | 2.83 | 2.93 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 6.23 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 35 | 154 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.0% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 6.23 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.3% | 5.9% | 29.4% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 0.86 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.3% | 5.9% | 29.4% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 1.17 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 1 | 25 | 103 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4% | 0.9 | 35.8% | 6.6% | 29.2% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 2.28 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 1 | 25 | 103 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 4% | 0.9 | 35.0% | 6.8% | 28.2% | 4.9% | 4.38 | 3.67 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 76 | 306 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2.36 | 3.79 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 76 | 306 | 73 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 2.36 | 3.69 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 0.7% | 5.08 | 3.40 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 35 | 0 | 34 | 156 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 5.08 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 11 | 70 | 314 | 71 | 45 | 10 | 34% | 2.2 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.75 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 11 | 70 | 314 | 71 | 45 | 10 | 34% | 2.2 | 22.6% | 14.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.11 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 57 | 245 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 57 | 245 | 63 | 19 | 8 | 42% | 3.0 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 18.0% | 3.3% | 4.45 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | New York Mets | 18 | 11 | 61 | 275 | 67 | 41 | 10 | 61% | 3.4 | 19.7% | 15.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.72 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.12 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 112 | 490 | 113 | 64 | 17 | — | — | 23.0% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 57 | 241 | 113 | 64 | 17 | — | — | 46.8% | 26.4% | 20.4% | 7.0% | 9.85 | 6.31 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 40 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.42 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 35 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 12.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.42 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 424 | 9 | 461 | 1932 | 497 | 229 | 55 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.99 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 4 | 200 | 838 | 215 | 99 | 24 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 480 | 31 | 604 | 2566 | 665 | 328 | 61 | 6% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.84 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 159 | 10 | 200 | 850 | 220 | 109 | 20 | 6% | 1.3 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 13.1% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carl Edwards Jr. (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.65 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 3.1% | — | 5.26 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 136 | +0.61 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 80 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 77 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 76 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 75 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.49 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .262 | 3.63 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | +0.14 | 2.35 | 140 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 74 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 176 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 73 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.37 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 260 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .248 | 7.10 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +3.26 | 2.85 | 141 | 73 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 73 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 21.3% | 11.2% | 1.39 | 4.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |