Nick Ahmed — OGILVIE

Nick AhmedSS San Diego Padres

Age 36 R/R 6'1" / 201 lbs MLB HR -7% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 207 proj PA

wRC+†vL 9373vR 23

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .267 / .304

PA207

HR2

K%23

BB%6

ISO88

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

3113.1%

xwOBA

110.263

POWER35

Barrel%

102.8

Avg EV

1085.0

Bat Spd

2668.8

EYE35

Chase%

2336.9%

SPEED55

Sprint

5527.7

Platoon Splits2024 · 228 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

141

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

307

215

◀◀L

ISO

076

061

◀◀L

BABIP

344

252

◀◀L

20.7%

23.4%

◀L

BB%

8.1%

2.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$-0.2M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	21	ROK	Danville Braves	—	284	260	52	10	1	3	18	65	3	18	6	200	260	281	541	81	253	23	6	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	ROK	Danville Braves	—	284	248	65	13	2	4	30	46	3	18	6	262	349	379	728	117	305	16	11	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+	2 teams	—	654	603	133	31	3	7	34	187	4	45	13	221	267	317	584	96	306	29	5	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+	2 teams	—	654	579	157	39	7	7	58	113	4	45	13	271	342	399	741	128	325	17	9	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA	2 teams	—	614	569	115	18	5	4	26	107	5	27	9	202	243	272	516	70	239	17	4	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA	2 teams	—	614	551	129	22	5	5	44	85	5	27	9	234	297	319	616	85	265	14	7	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AAA	2 teams	—	527	491	118	22	3	3	26	86	3	14	7	240	283	316	598	75	285	16	5	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AAA	2 teams	—	527	477	141	28	4	5	40	65	3	14	7	296	354	403	756	107	333	12	8	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	459	421	93	16	6	9	29	81	1	4	5	221	273	352	624	131	251	18	6	270	65	-18	-1	+11	+5	+13	1.0
2015	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	459	421	95	17	6	9	29	81	1	4	5	226	277	359	636	133	257	18	6	279	72	-15	-1	+11	+5	+13	1.3
2016	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	308	284	62	9	1	4	15	58	4	5	2	218	267	299	567	81	258	19	5	241	43	-20	+0	+14	+3	+9	0.7
2016	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	308	284	62	9	1	4	15	58	4	5	2	218	267	299	567	81	258	19	5	254	53	-16	+0	+14	+3	+9	1.0
2017	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	178	167	42	8	1	6	10	39	1	3	4	251	298	419	717	168	295	22	6	296	85	-3	-1	+8	+2	+5	1.1
2017	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	178	167	42	8	1	6	10	39	1	3	4	251	298	419	717	168	295	22	6	318	101	+0	-1	+8	+2	+5	1.4
2018	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	564	516	118	32	5	15	40	109	2	5	4	229	287	397	684	169	259	19	7	296	85	-10	-1	+29	+6	+16	4.1
2018	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	564	516	121	33	5	16	40	109	2	5	4	234	292	411	703	176	265	19	7	308	94	-4	-1	+29	+6	+16	4.7
2019	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	625	556	138	32	6	18	52	113	4	8	2	248	317	424	741	176	275	18	8	318	101	+1	+1	+17	+7	+18	4.4
2019	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	625	556	141	33	6	19	52	113	4	8	2	254	322	437	759	183	280	18	8	329	110	+7	+1	+17	+7	+18	5.0
2020	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	217	199	53	10	1	5	18	46	0	4	0	266	327	402	729	136	324	21	8	318	101	+0	+1	+6	+2	+6	1.6
2020	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	217	199	53	10	1	5	18	46	0	4	0	266	327	402	729	136	324	21	8	327	108	+2	+1	+6	+2	+6	1.8
2021	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	473	434	94	29	3	5	34	104	2	7	2	217	277	332	608	115	273	22	7	266	62	-21	+1	+17	+5	+13	1.6
2021	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	473	434	96	30	3	5	34	104	2	7	2	221	281	339	620	118	279	22	7	278	71	-16	+1	+17	+5	+13	2.1
2022	32	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	54	52	12	2	0	3	2	15	0	0	1	231	259	442	702	212	265	28	4	295	84	-1	-0	+2	+1	+2	0.3
2022	32	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	54	52	12	2	0	3	2	15	0	0	1	231	259	442	702	212	265	28	4	306	93	-0	-0	+2	+1	+2	0.3
2023	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	210	198	42	10	1	2	12	52	0	5	1	212	257	303	560	91	278	25	6	247	47	-13	+1	+6	+2	+6	0.2
2023	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	210	198	42	10	1	2	12	52	0	5	1	212	257	303	560	91	278	25	6	253	52	-11	+1	+6	+2	+6	0.3
2024	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	228	210	49	6	1	2	11	51	1	2	1	233	275	300	575	67	294	22	5	254	52	-12	+0	+8	+2	+6	0.4
2024	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	228	210	48	6	1	2	11	51	1	2	1	229	270	295	566	67	287	22	5	251	50	-13	+0	+8	+2	+6	0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	36	MLB	SD	—	207	192	42	8	1	2	12	47	1	4	1	219	268	302	570	83	274	23	6	259	57	-10	+0	+3	+2	+6	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	37	MLB	SD	100%	133	124	25	4	1	1	7	31	1	1	0	202	250	274	524	73	266	23	5	247	47	-8	+0	-5	+1	+4	-0.8
2028	38	MLB	SD	100%	80	76	15	2	0	1	4	19	0	1	0	197	237	263	501	66	258	24	5	234	38	-6	+0	-7	+1	+2	-0.9
2027	37	MLB	SD	100%	133	124	25	4	1	1	7	31	1	1	0	202	250	274	524	73	263	23	5	240	42	-9	+0	-5	+1	+4	-0.9
2028	38	MLB	SD	100%	80	76	14	2	0	1	4	19	0	1	0	184	225	250	475	66	255	24	5	228	33	-6	+0	-7	+1	+2	-1.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3604	3307	765	166	26	74	237	728	16	45	23	231	286	364	650	133	273	20	7	288	79	-86	-0	+104	+43	+102	16.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	138	30	5	13	43	131	3	8	4	232	287	364	651	133	274	20	7	288	79	-16	+0	+19	+8	+18	3.0
Career	—			—	5815	5352	1203	249	39	90	350	1210	32	153	58	225	276	336	613	112	272	21	6	267	63	-246	+7	+107	+62	+165	9.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	134	28	4	10	39	135	4	17	6	224	276	334	611	110	271	21	6	267	63	-27	+1	+12	+7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2011	21	ROK	Danville Braves	—	284	248	65	13	2	4	30	46	3	18	6	262	349	379	728	117	305	16	11	328	109	+3	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2012	22	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	506	136	36	4	6	49	102	4	40	10	269	338	391	729	123	325	18	9	322	104	+3	+4	—	—	+16	2.4
2012	22	INTL	Phoenix Desert Dogs	—	83	73	21	3	3	1	9	11	0	5	3	288	366	452	818	164	323	13	11	358	132	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2013	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	538	487	115	21	5	4	33	72	5	26	7	236	291	324	616	88	266	13	6	273	67	-20	+2	—	—	+15	-0.2
2013	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	76	64	14	1	0	1	11	13	0	1	2	219	333	281	615	62	255	17	14	288	79	-2	-1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2014	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	75	70	14	2	0	1	3	10	0	0	1	200	233	271	504	71	220	13	4	223	29	-6	-0	-1	+6	+2	0.0
2014	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	452	407	127	26	4	4	37	55	3	14	6	312	374	425	799	113	352	12	8	355	130	+15	+0	—	—	+13	2.9
2015	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	459	421	95	17	6	9	29	81	1	4	5	226	277	359	636	133	257	18	6	279	72	-15	-1	+11	+5	+13	1.3
2016	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	308	284	62	9	1	4	15	58	4	5	2	218	267	299	567	81	258	19	5	254	53	-16	+0	+14	+3	+9	1.0
2017	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	178	167	42	8	1	6	10	39	1	3	4	251	298	419	717	168	295	22	6	318	101	+0	-1	+8	+2	+5	1.4
2018	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	564	516	121	33	5	16	40	109	2	5	4	234	292	411	703	176	265	19	7	308	94	-4	-1	+29	+6	+16	4.7
2019	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	625	556	141	33	6	19	52	113	4	8	2	254	322	437	759	183	280	18	8	329	110	+7	+1	+17	+7	+18	5.0
2020	30	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	217	199	53	10	1	5	18	46	0	4	0	266	327	402	729	136	324	21	8	327	108	+2	+1	+6	+2	+6	1.8
2021	31	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	473	434	96	30	3	5	34	104	2	7	2	221	281	339	620	118	279	22	7	278	71	-16	+1	+17	+5	+13	2.1
2022	32	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	54	52	12	2	0	3	2	15	0	0	1	231	259	442	702	212	265	28	4	306	93	-0	-0	+2	+1	+2	0.3
2023	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	210	198	42	10	1	2	12	52	0	5	1	212	257	303	560	91	278	25	6	253	52	-11	+1	+6	+2	+6	0.3
2024	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	228	210	48	6	1	2	11	51	1	2	1	229	270	295	566	67	287	22	5	251	50	-13	+0	+8	+2	+6	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3391	3107	726	160	25	72	226	678	15	43	23	234	289	371	660	137	274	20	7	292	81	-72	-1	+116	+41	+96	18.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Everettlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,067 PA	10	3,067	40	66	242	294	346	+31	+108	15.8	16.2
	/162	664	9	14	242	294	346	+6.6	+23.4	3.4	pk7: 17
#2René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	10	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
	/162	664	17	0	221	273	354	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
#4Henry Blancolast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,779 PA	14	2,779	65	5	221	284	359	+27	+49	8.6	9.6
	/162	664	16	1	221	284	359	+6.6	+11.7	2.1	pk7: 11
#5Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	10	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.2
	/162	664	19	24	227	280	381	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	14	3,811	76	49	231	282	362	+38	+150	5.1	6.2
	/162	664	13	8	231	282	362	+6.6	+26.2	0.9	pk7: 7
#6John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	13	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
	/162	664	7	9	233	273	324	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Ahmed (OGILVIE)	36	45	35	55	35	217/267/304	87	274	2	4	23%	6%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ken Huckaby 2007 · MLB	36	42	37→30	50→40	36	203/230/269	66	270	5	7	27%	3%	30	-3.1	220/250/285	65	297	6	7	27%	3%	43	-2.2	235/262/260	25	322	2	0	27%	3%	37	-1.1
✕Edgar Vega 2008 · AAA	36	47	38→30	46→30	41	226/259/305	79	274	6	5	20%	4%	52	-1.6	219/252/319	100	260	9	7	19%	4%	53	-1.5	225/249/344	118	241	11	4	12%	3%	53	-0.3
✕Josh Wilson 2017 · MLB	36	45→50	40→45	49→50	36	218/262/304	86	303	7	11	30%	4%	54	-1.4	221/275/328	107	291	10	8	27%	4%	67	-0.5	209/264/293	85	277	8	2	26%	3%	51	-0.7
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	42	221/276/304	83	305	7	11	29%	6%	60	-1.0	209/256/348	139	330	17	10	40%	6%	64	-0.8	135/173/276	142	208	24	5	49%	4%	8	-0.8
✕Ed Rogers 2013 · AAA	34	45→49	41→40	49→50	42	218/267/317	99	268	8	11	22%	5%	60	-1.0	242/294/352	110	293	13	12	21%	5%	81	+0.4	266/316/341	75	314	12	12	19%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Raul Chavez 2008 · MLB	35	44	39→40	47→30	42	209/244/290	81	236	7	4	16%	3%	43	-2.2	226/262/321	95	254	9	4	15%	4%	59	-1.1	226/260/313	87	251	8	1	14%	3%	52	-0.5
✕Pete Orr 2015 · MLB	36	50→45	40→45	50→55	37	240/267/337	97	310	7	13	25%	3%	64	-0.8	228/266/314	86	285	7	16	22%	4%	58	-1.2	219/259/275	56	267	3	20	18%	4%	44	-1.3
✕Manny Alexander 2007 · MLB	36	47→50	41→45	51→55	46	229/275/328	99	265	9	18	18%	6%	66	-0.6	215/255/307	92	261	7	11	20%	5%	52	-1.6	199/229/268	70	247	3	5	20%	4%	27	-1.7
✕J.C. Boscan 2015 · AAA	35	38	37→40	46→30	41	185/236/252	67	248	5	5	27%	6%	30	-3.1	203/247/287	84	260	8	8	24%	5%	43	-2.2	180/207/209	29	222	3	0	20%	3%	1	-1.1
✕Sergio Palafox 2015 · AAA	35	47	37→40	49→45	42	225/261/297	72	265	5	11	17%	4%	51	-1.7	225/268/322	97	269	9	11	19%	5%	62	-0.9	218/257/287	68	254	5	5	16%	4%	45	-0.3
✕John McDonald 2009 · MLB	34	48	38→40	50	46	225/266/308	83	253	5	11	14%	5%	56	-1.3	235/271/360	125	255	13	7	14%	4%	72	-0.2	236/266/360	124	253	13	4	13%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Drew Butera 2021 · MLB	37	41	43→40	49→40	46	202/269/310	108	267	10	6	27%	8%	60	-1.0	196/268/318	122	274	13	9	32%	7%	62	-0.9	149/232/256	107	209	12	7	34%	7%	29	-1.5
✕Brendan Ryan 2017 · MLB	35	41→51	36→40	47→55	39	198/245/264	67	278	3	10	29%	5%	37	-2.7	208/267/298	90	270	6	9	24%	7%	55	-1.4	199/265/278	79	252	5	6	22%	8%	46	-1.4
✕Pedro Mere 2006 · AAA	36	46→49	43→40	45→40	45	228/272/338	110	263	11	7	18%	5%	67	-0.5	237/284/334	97	267	9	5	14%	5%	72	-0.2	239/289/324	85	269	8	3	14%	5%	69	-0.2
✕Paul Phillips 2012 · MLB	35	44→47	37→40	45→30	46	206/245/272	66	231	5	4	14%	5%	38	-2.6	221/268/301	80	257	7	7	16%	5%	56	-1.3	239/291/253	14	281	0	0	14%	6%	50	-0.3
✕Carlos Orrantia 2017 · AAA	35	46→53	39→45	43→55	41	224/266/305	81	282	7	8	23%	4%	56	-1.3	235/271/325	90	300	9	10	24%	4%	63	-0.9	261/286/315	54	335	6	9	23%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Hector Garcia 2009 · AAA	36	52	35→30	48→45	46	244/276/300	56	270	3	8	11%	4%	57	-1.2	248/279/312	64	270	5	7	10%	4%	63	-0.9	272/296/306	35	290	2	2	7%	3%	64	-0.2
✕Hector Estrada 2006 · AAA	37	44	42→40	43→40	45	218/266/321	103	255	10	5	19%	6%	61	-1.0	218/269/327	109	250	12	7	18%	6%	64	-0.8	200/249/286	87	213	11	3	12%	4%	42	-0.6
✕Tuffy Gosewisch 2019 · MLB	35	40→45	41→45	43→40	45	198/262/301	103	253	8	3	25%	7%	55	-1.4	203/269/312	109	278	10	7	29%	6%	61	-1.0	152/228/223	71	219	10	0	34%	5%	19	-0.9
✕Robinson Cancel 2011 · MLB	35	47	40→45	49→50	46	227/268/321	95	253	7	13	14%	5%	61	-1.0	252/301/362	110	304	11	15	20%	6%	86	+0.8	265/317/370	106	321	10	16	20%	7%	91	+0.7