Luis Fonseca
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 32 | AAARojos del Agu… | 213 | .225/.282/.330 | 5 | 2 | 40 | — | .208/.243/.294 |
| 2018 | 33 | INTLMayos de Navo… | 67 | .290/.333/.371 | 1 | 0 | 98 | — | |
| 2019 | 34 | AAAGenerales de … | 55 | .226/.255/.358 | 1 | 0 | 3 | — | .130/.145/.167 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 162 | 147 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 286 | 340 | 408 | 748 | 122 | 304 | 12 | 6 | 330 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 94 | 86 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 407 | 440 | 616 | 1.056 | 209 | 470 | 19 | 5 | 448 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 113 | 104 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 337 | 373 | 394 | 767 | 58 | 395 | 18 | 4 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 436 | 386 | 145 | 21 | 9 | 20 | 42 | 77 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 376 | 441 | 632 | 1.073 | 256 | 427 | 18 | 10 | 460 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | INTL | Mexico | — | 284 | 255 | 83 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 55 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 325 | 388 | 475 | 862 | 149 | 387 | 19 | 9 | 380 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 159 | 143 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 280 | 344 | 420 | 764 | 140 | 336 | 19 | 8 | 337 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 149 | 140 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 282 | 336 | 618 | 100 | 270 | 15 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | — | 81 | 77 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 273 | 291 | 364 | 655 | 91 | 292 | 14 | 2 | 286 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 383 | 362 | 104 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 86 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 287 | 321 | 434 | 755 | 146 | 348 | 22 | 5 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 213 | 191 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 282 | 330 | 611 | 105 | 266 | 21 | 6 | 269 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 33 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 67 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 81 | 315 | 12 | 6 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA | Generales de Durango | — | 55 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 255 | 358 | 613 | 132 | 306 | 29 | 4 | 272 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 162 | 151 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 289 | 344 | 634 | 93 | 272 | 14 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 94 | 88 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 341 | 363 | 500 | 863 | 159 | 395 | 23 | 3 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 436 | 404 | 127 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 89 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 314 | 357 | 495 | 852 | 181 | 369 | 20 | 6 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 159 | 148 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 236 | 280 | 345 | 625 | 108 | 293 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | — | 81 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 241 | 282 | 523 | 51 | 258 | 19 | 1 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 383 | 369 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 236 | 258 | 336 | 594 | 100 | 300 | 26 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 213 | 197 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 243 | 294 | 537 | 86 | 239 | 23 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 55 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 145 | 167 | 312 | 37 | 236 | 36 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 162 | 151 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 252 | 289 | 344 | 634 | 93 | 278 | 14 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA RAW | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 162 | 147 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 286 | 340 | 408 | 748 | 122 | 304 | 12 | 6 | 330 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 194 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 335 | 358 | 479 | 838 | 144 | 407 | 23 | 3 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 207 | 190 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 368 | 403 | 495 | 898 | 126 | 428 | 18 | 5 | 388 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 720 | 668 | 211 | 27 | 15 | 22 | 40 | 148 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 316 | 358 | 500 | 858 | 184 | 375 | 21 | 6 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 720 | 641 | 228 | 35 | 9 | 28 | 67 | 132 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 356 | 420 | 569 | 989 | 214 | 411 | 18 | 9 | 429 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 286 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 288 | 346 | 634 | 108 | 303 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 308 | 283 | 73 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 258 | 314 | 378 | 692 | 120 | 302 | 17 | 6 | 309 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | — | 81 | 78 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 241 | 282 | 523 | 51 | 270 | 19 | 1 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | — | 81 | 77 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 273 | 291 | 364 | 655 | 91 | 292 | 14 | 2 | 286 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 383 | 369 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 236 | 258 | 336 | 594 | 100 | 304 | 26 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 383 | 362 | 104 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 86 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 287 | 321 | 434 | 755 | 146 | 348 | 22 | 5 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 213 | 197 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 208 | 243 | 294 | 537 | 86 | 253 | 23 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA RAW | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 213 | 191 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 282 | 330 | 611 | 105 | 266 | 21 | 6 | 269 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 33 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 67 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 81 | 315 | 12 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 33 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 67 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 81 | 315 | 12 | 6 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 55 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 145 | 167 | 312 | 37 | 206 | 36 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA RAW | Generales de Durango | — | 55 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 255 | 358 | 613 | 132 | 306 | 29 | 4 | 272 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 162 | 153 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 289 | 340 | 629 | 92 | 272 | 14 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 207 | 198 | 65 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 328 | 358 | 470 | 828 | 141 | 395 | 23 | 3 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 720 | 670 | 211 | 27 | 15 | 22 | 40 | 148 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 315 | 358 | 499 | 857 | 184 | 369 | 21 | 6 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 308 | 285 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 239 | 288 | 347 | 635 | 109 | 293 | 23 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Diablos Rojos del Mexico | — | 81 | 80 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 225 | 241 | 275 | 516 | 50 | 258 | 19 | 1 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 383 | 369 | 87 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 101 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 236 | 258 | 336 | 594 | 100 | 300 | 26 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 32 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 213 | 202 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 243 | 287 | 530 | 84 | 239 | 23 | 3 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 34 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 55 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 145 | 167 | 312 | 37 | 236 | 36 | 2 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2196 | 2059 | 553 | 77 | 20 | 48 | 91 | 483 | 14 | 33 | 15 | 269 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 127 | 327 | 22 | 4 | 293 | 85 | -40 | +1 | +0 | -24 | +48 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 164 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 143 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 269 | 304 | 396 | 700 | 126 | 328 | 22 | 4 | 293 | 85 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAGenerales de Durango · 55 PAwOBA .264 → .172 (−92)K% 29.1% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.09% | ÷0.946 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.64% | ÷1.118 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 2.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.034 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.940 | 15.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.163 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.940 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.311 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.940 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 107, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 89, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .264 → .172; ISO .132 → .072; BABIP .306 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 213 PAwOBA .260 → .228 (−32)K% 21.1% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.095 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.69% | ÷1.043 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.942 | 2.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.942 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×0.942 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.899 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×0.942 | 3.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.929 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.942 | 2.43% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 80, 3B 80, K 119, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .260 → .228; ISO .105 → .084; BABIP .266 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 383 PAwOBA .321 → .258 (−63)K% 22.5% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.45% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.92% | ÷0.931 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 2.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.81% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | ×1.013 | ×0.952 | 23.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×1.013 | ×0.952 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.952 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.99% | ÷0.999 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.952 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 103, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .321 → .258; ISO .146 → .104; BABIP .348 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADiablos Rojos del Mexico · 81 PAwOBA .281 → .229 (−52)K% 13.6% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.58% | ÷0.900 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.47% | ÷1.204 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 1.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.045 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 24.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.122 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 1.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.123 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.043 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 1.96% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 109, 2B 124, 3B 125, K 80, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .281 → .229; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .292 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 159 PAwOBA .329 → .268 (−60)K% 18.9% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.96% | ÷0.945 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.80% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 89, 3B 100, K 98, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .329 → .268; ISO .140 → .108; BABIP .336 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAPetroleros de Minatitlan · 436 PAwOBA .449 → .371 (−78)K% 17.7% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.66% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.74% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 27.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.101 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.91% | ÷0.901 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×0.982 | 2.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.47% | ÷1.083 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 4.11% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .449 → .371; ISO .256 → .192; BABIP .427 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPetroleros de Minatitlan · 94 PAwOBA .442 → .360 (−82)K% 19.1% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.15% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.26% | ÷0.974 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.24% | ÷1.021 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 33.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.117 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.110 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.68% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 98, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .442 → .360; ISO .209 → .145; BABIP .470 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAPetroleros de Minatitlan · 162 PAwOBA .321 → .274 (−47)K% 11.7% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.73% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.107 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.003 | 23.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.085 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.003 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.22% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 112, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 96, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .321 → .274; ISO .122 → .093; BABIP .304 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .