Alberto Mineo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | ACHC | 405 | .278/.375/.358 | 0 | 3 | 63 | — | .230/.300/.295 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA/A+TOR | 244 | .305/.392/.424 | 3 | 0 | 94 | — | .263/.333/.360 |
| 2019 | 25 | AATOR | 339 | .220/.299/.313 | 5 | 1 | 39 | — | .181/.243/.256 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 62 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 295 | 157 | 452 | 216 | 23 | 16 | 229 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 60 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 56 | 324 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 169 | 137 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 241 | 373 | 336 | 709 | 95 | 311 | 21 | 16 | 326 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 168 | 152 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 303 | 329 | 632 | 86 | 327 | 27 | 8 | 283 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | — | 405 | 349 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 47 | 66 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 375 | 358 | 733 | 80 | 342 | 16 | 12 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 15 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 462 | 533 | 692 | 1.226 | 231 | 417 | 0 | 13 | 533 | 216 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 229 | 197 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 382 | 406 | 788 | 112 | 354 | 17 | 11 | 352 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 339 | 300 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 101 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 299 | 313 | 613 | 93 | 308 | 30 | 9 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 62 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 127 | 213 | 127 | 340 | 190 | 32 | 10 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 60 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 217 | 182 | 398 | 36 | 260 | 40 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 169 | 149 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 181 | 265 | 255 | 520 | 74 | 249 | 31 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 168 | 156 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 230 | 237 | 467 | 51 | 293 | 38 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 405 | 366 | 84 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 88 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 300 | 295 | 595 | 66 | 292 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 15 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 462 | 533 | 692 | 1.226 | 231 | 412 | 0 | 13 | 488 | 216 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 229 | 204 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 320 | 338 | 658 | 88 | 328 | 25 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 339 | 309 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 122 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 243 | 256 | 498 | 74 | 271 | 36 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 62 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 127 | 213 | 127 | 340 | 200 | 32 | 10 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 62 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 157 | 295 | 157 | 452 | 216 | 23 | 16 | 229 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 60 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 217 | 182 | 398 | 36 | 258 | 40 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 60 | 54 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 56 | 324 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 169 | 149 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 181 | 265 | 255 | 520 | 74 | 263 | 31 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 169 | 137 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 241 | 373 | 336 | 709 | 95 | 311 | 21 | 16 | 326 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 168 | 156 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 230 | 237 | 467 | 51 | 298 | 38 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 168 | 152 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 303 | 329 | 632 | 86 | 327 | 27 | 8 | 283 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 405 | 366 | 84 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 88 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 300 | 295 | 595 | 66 | 301 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 405 | 349 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 47 | 66 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 375 | 358 | 733 | 80 | 342 | 16 | 12 | 336 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 217 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 359 | 693 | 97 | 344 | 24 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 244 | 210 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 305 | 392 | 424 | 815 | 119 | 359 | 16 | 11 | 363 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 339 | 309 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 122 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 243 | 256 | 498 | 74 | 278 | 36 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 339 | 300 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 101 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 299 | 313 | 613 | 93 | 308 | 30 | 9 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 62 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 125 | 213 | 125 | 338 | 190 | 32 | 10 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 60 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 217 | 182 | 398 | 36 | 260 | 40 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 169 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 180 | 265 | 253 | 518 | 73 | 249 | 31 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 168 | 157 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 230 | 236 | 466 | 51 | 293 | 38 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 405 | 365 | 84 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 88 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 300 | 296 | 596 | 66 | 292 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 244 | 219 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 333 | 356 | 689 | 96 | 333 | 24 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 339 | 311 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 122 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 180 | 243 | 254 | 497 | 74 | 271 | 36 | 6 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1447 | 1307 | 268 | 49 | 8 | 8 | 103 | 428 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 205 | 273 | 273 | 546 | 68 | 294 | 30 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -83 | -1 | +0 | +26 | +31 | -2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 121 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 192 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 206 | 274 | 278 | 552 | 72 | 295 | 30 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -37 | -0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 339 PAwOBA .273 → .226 (−48)K% 29.8% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.13% | ÷1.023 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.52% | ÷1.064 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.51% | ÷0.860 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .273 → .226; ISO .093 → .079; BABIP .308 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 229 PAwOBA .347 → .295 (−53)K% 17.5% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.47% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.31% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.11% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 23.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.92% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 8.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.147 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.97% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 101, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .347 → .295; ISO .112 → .097; BABIP .354 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAABuffalo Bisons · 15 PAwOBA .519 → .488 (−30)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 10.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 38.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.080 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 6.27% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .519 → .488; ISO .231 → .195; BABIP .417 → .412. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ASouth Bend Cubs · 405 PAwOBA .326 → .262 (−64)K% 16.3% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.30% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.86% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.80% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×0.990 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.869 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 105, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .326 → .262; ISO .080 → .065; BABIP .342 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ASouth Bend Cubs · 168 PAwOBA .281 → .218 (−63)K% 27.4% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷0.973 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.74% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.42% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | — | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | — | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.997 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .281 → .218; ISO .086 → .063; BABIP .327 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKAZL Cubs · 169 PAwOBA .320 → .233 (−87)K% 21.3% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.995 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×0.995 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×0.995 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .320 → .233; ISO .095 → .070; BABIP .311 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKAZL Cubs · 60 PAwOBA .264 → .178 (−87)K% 28.3% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 20.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 5.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .264 → .178; ISO .056 → .034; BABIP .324 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKAZL Cubs · 62 PAwOBA .225 → .166 (−58)K% 22.6% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 10.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 19.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .225 → .166; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .216 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).