Jackie Bradley Jr.

PosCF

B/TL/R

Born1990-04-19

Age (2027)37

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	32	MLBTOR	370	.203/.255/.311	4	2	58	-1.0
2023	33	MLBKC	113	.133/.188/.210	1	0	12	-0.5
2024	34	AAANYM	94	.209/.269/.360	2	5	30	—	.170/.215/.273
2025	35	No MLB games played
2026	36	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Avg EV44

Speed42

Barrel%27

xwOBA10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	15	15	5	1	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	333	333	600	933	267	364	20	0	405	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	271	229	62	16	2	6	35	49	4	8	3	271	377	437	814	166	316	18	13	362	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	304	234	84	26	2	3	52	40	10	16	6	359	493	526	1.019	167	407	13	17	442	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	107	95	18	5	0	3	10	31	2	2	0	189	280	337	617	147	246	29	9	282	73	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2013	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	374	320	88	26	3	10	41	75	10	7	7	275	375	469	843	194	331	20	11	373	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	423	384	76	19	2	1	31	121	5	8	0	198	267	266	532	68	284	29	7	246	46	-27	+2	+13	+2	+9	-0.1
2014	24	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	69	66	14	1	0	1	3	18	0	0	1	212	246	273	519	61	277	26	4	236	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	255	221	55	17	4	10	27	69	3	3	0	249	339	498	836	249	310	27	11	360	126	+8	+1	+3	-6	+6	1.1
2015	25	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	318	282	86	18	1	9	30	44	5	4	4	305	382	472	853	167	336	14	9	379	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	636	558	149	30	7	26	63	143	10	9	2	267	352	486	837	219	312	22	10	366	127	+21	+1	+13	+2	+14	5.1
2017	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	541	482	118	19	3	17	48	124	9	8	3	245	325	402	727	158	294	23	9	326	100	+0	+0	+10	+2	+12	2.5
2018	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	535	474	111	33	4	13	46	137	11	17	1	234	316	403	719	169	299	26	9	320	95	-3	+3	+11	+2	+12	2.5
2019	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	567	494	111	28	3	21	56	155	12	8	6	225	319	421	740	196	281	27	10	328	102	+1	-1	+7	+2	+12	2.2
2020	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	217	191	54	11	0	7	23	48	2	5	2	283	366	450	816	168	343	22	11	363	124	+6	+0	+5	+1	+5	1.7
2021	31	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	428	387	63	14	3	6	28	132	10	7	1	163	238	261	499	98	226	31	7	230	43	-29	+1	+2	+2	+9	-1.6
2022	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	370	344	70	23	1	4	24	77	0	2	3	203	255	311	566	108	251	21	6	255	58	-18	-1	+6	-4	+8	-1.0
2023	33	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	113	105	14	5	0	1	5	29	2	0	0	133	188	210	397	76	173	26	4	183	12	-12	+0	+4	+0	+2	-0.5
2024	34	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	94	86	18	5	1	2	7	23	0	5	1	209	269	360	629	151	258	24	7	278	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4192	3735	839	204	27	109	361	1066	66	69	18	225	304	381	685	157	283	25	9	306	93	-32	+7	+71	+4	+91	14.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	15	15	4	1	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	267	267	533	800	267	312	27	0	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	271	239	57	13	2	4	25	62	4	8	3	238	321	360	681	121	299	23	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	304	255	78	21	2	3	31	56	10	16	6	306	402	439	841	133	352	18	10	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	107	95	17	4	0	3	10	31	2	2	0	179	271	316	587	137	246	29	9	275	73	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2013	23	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	374	334	85	22	3	8	27	89	10	7	7	254	329	410	739	156	322	24	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	423	385	73	17	2	1	30	121	5	8	0	190	257	252	509	62	284	29	7	237	46	-27	+2	+13	+2	+9	-0.1
2014	24	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	69	67	13	1	0	1	2	22	0	0	1	194	217	254	471	60	276	32	3	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	255	221	53	15	4	10	27	69	3	3	0	240	331	480	810	240	310	27	11	354	126	+8	+1	+3	-6	+6	1.1
2015	25	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	318	291	85	18	1	8	21	55	5	4	4	292	350	443	793	151	338	17	7	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	636	563	147	27	8	27	58	143	10	9	2	261	341	481	822	220	312	22	9	356	127	+21	+1	+13	+2	+14	5.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	541	486	115	17	3	17	44	124	9	8	3	237	312	389	701	152	294	23	8	316	100	+0	+0	+10	+2	+12	2.5
2018	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	477	106	29	4	13	43	137	11	17	1	222	301	382	683	159	299	26	8	308	95	-3	+3	+11	+2	+12	2.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	567	497	108	25	3	22	53	155	12	8	6	217	308	412	720	195	281	27	9	318	102	+1	-1	+7	+2	+12	2.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	217	192	52	10	0	7	22	48	2	5	2	271	352	432	784	161	343	22	10	352	124	+6	+0	+5	+1	+5	1.7
2021	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	428	387	64	15	3	6	28	132	10	7	1	165	240	266	506	101	226	31	7	232	43	-29	+1	+2	+2	+9	-1.6
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	370	344	70	23	1	4	24	77	0	2	3	203	255	311	566	108	251	21	6	254	58	-18	-1	+6	-4	+8	-1.0
2023	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	113	105	14	5	0	1	5	29	2	0	0	133	188	210	397	76	173	26	4	185	12	-12	+0	+4	+0	+2	-0.5
2024	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	94	88	15	4	1	1	5	28	0	5	1	170	215	273	488	102	225	30	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	15	15	4	1	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	267	267	533	800	267	300	27	0	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	15	15	5	1	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	333	333	600	933	267	364	20	0	405	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	575	493	136	35	3	8	57	119	14	24	9	276	367	408	775	132	340	21	10	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	575	463	146	42	4	9	87	89	14	24	9	315	438	482	920	166	364	15	15	404	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	429	103	27	3	11	37	120	12	9	7	240	318	394	712	154	308	25	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	481	415	106	31	3	13	51	106	12	9	7	255	354	439	792	183	313	22	11	352	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	492	452	87	18	2	2	32	143	5	8	1	192	254	254	508	62	275	29	7	232	43	-33	+1	+13	+2	+11	-0.7
2014	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	492	450	90	20	2	2	34	139	5	8	1	200	264	267	530	67	283	28	7	244	43	-33	+1	+13	+2	+11	-0.7
2015	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	573	512	138	33	5	18	48	124	8	7	4	270	342	459	801	189	322	22	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	573	503	141	35	5	19	57	113	8	7	4	280	363	483	846	203	326	20	10	371	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	636	563	147	27	8	27	58	143	10	9	2	261	341	481	822	220	302	22	9	356	127	+21	+1	+13	+2	+14	5.1
2016	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	636	558	149	30	7	26	63	143	10	9	2	267	352	486	837	219	312	22	10	366	127	+21	+1	+13	+2	+14	5.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	541	486	115	17	3	17	44	124	9	8	3	237	312	389	701	152	282	23	8	316	100	+0	+0	+10	+2	+12	2.5
2017	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	541	482	118	19	3	17	48	124	9	8	3	245	325	402	727	158	294	23	9	326	100	+0	+0	+10	+2	+12	2.5
2018	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	477	106	29	4	13	43	137	11	17	1	222	301	382	683	159	281	26	8	308	95	-3	+3	+11	+2	+12	2.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	535	474	111	33	4	13	46	137	11	17	1	234	316	403	719	169	299	26	9	320	95	-3	+3	+11	+2	+12	2.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	567	497	108	25	3	22	53	155	12	8	6	217	308	412	720	195	267	27	9	318	102	+1	-1	+7	+2	+12	2.2
2019	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	567	494	111	28	3	21	56	155	12	8	6	225	319	421	740	196	281	27	10	328	102	+1	-1	+7	+2	+12	2.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	217	192	52	10	0	7	22	48	2	5	2	271	352	432	784	161	326	22	10	352	124	+6	+0	+5	+1	+5	1.7
2020	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	217	191	54	11	0	7	23	48	2	5	2	283	366	450	816	168	343	22	11	363	124	+6	+0	+5	+1	+5	1.7
2021	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	428	387	64	15	3	6	28	132	10	7	1	165	240	266	506	101	230	31	7	232	43	-29	+1	+2	+2	+9	-1.6
2021	31	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	428	387	63	14	3	6	28	132	10	7	1	163	238	261	499	98	226	31	7	230	43	-29	+1	+2	+2	+9	-1.6
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	370	344	70	23	1	4	24	77	0	2	3	203	255	311	566	108	251	21	6	254	58	-18	-1	+6	-4	+8	-1.0
2022	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	370	344	70	23	1	4	24	77	0	2	3	203	255	311	566	108	251	21	6	255	58	-18	-1	+6	-4	+8	-1.0
2023	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	113	105	14	5	0	1	5	29	2	0	0	133	188	210	397	76	173	26	4	185	12	-12	+0	+4	+0	+2	-0.5
2023	33	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	113	105	14	5	0	1	5	29	2	0	0	133	188	210	397	76	173	26	4	183	12	-12	+0	+4	+0	+2	-0.5
2024	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	94	88	15	4	1	1	5	28	0	5	1	170	215	273	488	102	233	30	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	94	86	18	5	1	2	7	23	0	5	1	209	269	360	629	151	258	24	7	278	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	15	15	4	1	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	267	267	533	800	267	312	27	0	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	575	499	136	35	3	8	57	119	14	24	9	273	367	403	770	130	327	21	10	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	429	103	27	3	11	37	120	12	9	7	240	318	394	712	154	305	25	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	492	452	87	18	2	2	32	143	5	8	1	192	254	254	508	62	283	29	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	573	512	138	33	5	18	48	124	8	7	4	270	342	459	801	189	326	22	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	636	563	147	27	8	27	58	143	10	9	2	261	341	481	822	220	312	22	9	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	541	483	115	17	3	17	44	124	9	8	3	238	312	391	703	153	294	23	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	535	476	106	29	4	13	43	137	11	17	1	223	301	382	684	160	299	26	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	567	497	108	25	3	22	53	155	12	8	6	217	308	412	720	195	281	27	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	217	191	52	10	0	7	22	48	2	5	2	272	352	435	786	162	343	22	10	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	428	387	64	15	3	6	28	132	10	7	1	165	240	266	506	101	226	31	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	370	343	70	23	1	4	24	77	0	2	3	204	255	312	567	108	251	21	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	113	105	14	5	0	1	5	29	2	0	0	133	188	210	397	76	173	26	4	185	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	94	89	15	4	1	1	5	28	0	5	1	169	215	270	485	101	225	30	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	94	89	15	4	1	1	5	28	0	5	1	169	215	270	485	101	225	30	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4192	3735	839	204	27	109	361	1066	66	69	18	225	304	381	685	157	283	25	9	306	92	-32	+7	+71	+4	+91	14.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	130	32	4	17	56	165	10	11	3	225	303	382	685	157	282	25	9	306	92	-5	+1	+11	+1	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5637	5040	1159	269	36	138	456	1383	95	109	40	230	306	380	686	150	287	25	8	305	92	-32	+7	+71	+4	+91	14.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	134	31	4	16	53	159	11	13	5	231	307	380	687	150	288	24	8	305	92	-5	+1	+11	+1	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 94 PAwOBA .273 → .213 (−60)K% 24.5% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.47%	÷0.968	×1.200	—	—	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.45%	÷0.933	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.18%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.87%	÷1.006	×0.930	×1.028	×0.940	14.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.94%	÷0.972	×0.830	×1.028	×0.940	6.55%
Triples /BIP	1.59%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.028	×0.940	1.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.17%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .273 → .213; ISO .151 → .111; BABIP .258 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 318 PAwOBA .368 → .343 (−25)K% 13.8% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.84%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.12%	÷0.996	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.53%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.53%
Singles /BIP	24.37%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.035	×1.033	24.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.56%	÷0.867	×0.830	×1.035	×1.033	7.74%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷1.012	×0.970	×1.035	×1.033	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	3.78%	÷1.012	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.24%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .368 → .343; ISO .167 → .154; BABIP .336 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 69 PAwOBA .230 → .200 (−30)K% 26.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	31.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.084	×0.690	—	×1.048	2.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.012	×1.048	25.26%
Doubles /BIP	2.08%	÷0.937	×0.830	×1.012	×1.048	1.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.104	×0.970	×1.012	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.240	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .230 → .200; ISO .061 → .044; BABIP .277 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 374 PAwOBA .362 → .326 (−36)K% 20.1% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.05%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	23.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.43%	÷1.069	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.07%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.64%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.964	×0.930	×1.038	×1.050	21.01%
Doubles /BIP	10.61%	÷1.083	×0.830	×1.038	×1.050	8.86%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷0.957	×0.970	×1.038	×1.050	1.35%
Home runs /BIP	4.08%	÷1.068	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.37%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .362 → .326; ISO .194 → .169; BABIP .331 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Salem Red Sox · 304 PAwOBA .443 → .369 (−74)K% 13.2% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.16%	÷1.008	×1.420	—	—	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.78%	÷1.035	×0.630	—	×1.012	10.34%
HBP% /PA	3.29%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	2.86%
Singles /BIP	27.32%	÷1.041	×0.940	×0.999	×1.012	24.93%
Doubles /BIP	13.40%	÷1.089	×0.830	×0.999	×1.012	10.33%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷1.150	×0.800	×0.999	×1.012	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	1.55%	÷0.944	×0.900	—	×1.012	1.49%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .443 → .369; ISO .167 → .144; BABIP .407 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 271 PAwOBA .357 → .305 (−51)K% 18.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.08%	÷0.958	×1.220	—	—	23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.92%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×1.042	9.41%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.31%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷1.007	×0.970	×1.007	×1.042	21.34%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷1.095	×0.860	×1.007	×1.042	7.33%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.007	×1.042	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.098	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.47%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .357 → .305; ISO .166 → .131; BABIP .316 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AGreenville Drive · 15 PAwOBA .393 → .307 (−86)K% 20.0% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.950	×1.340	—	—	28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.011	×0.660	—	×1.015	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.055	×0.920	—	×1.015	22.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.025	×0.820	—	×1.015	6.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.026	×0.940	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷0.939	×0.820	—	×1.015	7.39%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 111, 2B 105, 3B 105, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .393 → .307; ISO .267 → .208; BABIP .364 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).