Matt Barnes

P Washington Nationals

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	32	MIX4 levels	52	3	47	4.94	3.54	20.8%	11.1%	0.6	K 19.3% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.55
2023	33	MIX3 levels	27	3	25	4.62	3.61	20.4%	9.7%	0.3	K 20.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.71
2024	34	MLBWSH	14	0	13	6.75	3.48	16.7%	6.7%	0.2
2027PROJ	37	MLBWSH	46	0	48	4.37	4.33	22.9%	9.0%	0.1
2028PROJ	38	MLBWSH	40	0	42	4.61	4.76	21.7%	9.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%23

K%12

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.37

FIP4.33

K%22.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP48

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

FB+1.1 (39%)

CU (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	5	0	9	39	8	2	1	0%	1.8	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.00	3.42	+0.1
2014	24	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	5	0	9	39	8	2	1	0%	1.8	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.00	3.43	+0.1
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	7	81	369	80	37	12	14%	1.6	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.55	+0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	7	81	369	80	37	12	14%	1.6	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.43	+0.1
2016	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	67	287	71	30	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.05	3.51	+0.8
2016	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	67	287	71	30	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.05	3.49	+0.8
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	1	71	292	84	29	7	1%	1.0	28.9%	9.8%	19.2%	2.5%	3.82	3.27	+1.1
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	1	71	292	84	29	7	1%	1.0	28.8%	9.9%	18.8%	2.4%	3.82	3.24	+1.1
2018	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	265	96	30	5	0%	1.0	36.2%	11.3%	24.9%	1.9%	3.65	2.54	+1.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	265	96	30	5	0%	1.0	36.2%	11.3%	24.9%	1.9%	3.65	2.50	+1.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	70	0	64	285	110	36	8	0%	0.9	38.6%	12.6%	26.0%	2.9%	3.78	3.02	+1.2
2019	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	70	0	64	285	110	36	8	0%	0.9	38.6%	12.6%	26.0%	2.8%	3.78	2.98	+1.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	24	0	23	102	31	13	4	0%	1.0	30.4%	12.7%	17.6%	4.0%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	24	0	23	102	31	13	4	0%	1.0	30.4%	12.7%	17.6%	3.9%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	62	1	57	232	87	18	8	2%	0.9	37.8%	8.1%	29.7%	3.7%	3.97	2.96	+1.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	62	1	57	232	87	18	8	2%	0.9	37.5%	7.8%	29.7%	3.4%	3.97	2.82	+1.2
2022	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	3	47	216	45	24	3	6%	0.9	19.3%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	4.94	3.55	+0.6
2022	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	3	47	216	45	24	3	6%	0.9	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	1.4%	4.94	3.54	+0.6
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	25	113	23	11	2	11%	0.9	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	2.1%	4.62	3.71	+0.3
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	3	25	113	23	11	2	11%	0.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	1.8%	4.62	3.61	+0.3
2024	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.45	+0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.45	+0.2
2024	34	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.48	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			467	3	466	2021	586	205	53	1%	1.0	29.0%	10.1%	18.9%	2.6%	4.21	3.38	+6.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	WSH	46	0	48	203	46	18	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.0%	13.8%	3.0%	4.37	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	175	38	17	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.76	-0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	WSH	40	0	42	177	38	17	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.61	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		507	3	508	2196	624	222	59	1%	1.0	28.4%	10.1%	18.3%	2.7%	4.24	3.46	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	1	200	865	246	87	23	1%	1.0	28.4%	10.1%	18.3%	2.7%	4.24	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		498	15	519	2260	638	235	59	3%	1.0	28.2%	10.4%	17.8%	2.6%	4.23	3.46	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		192	6	200	871	246	91	23	3%	1.0	28.2%	10.4%	17.8%	2.6%	4.23	3.46	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Barnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.9%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.76	21.7%	12.0%	42	+0.43	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	68
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	67
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	63
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	60
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	60
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	60
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	59
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	58
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	58
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	58
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	55
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	54
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	48
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	47
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	35
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	32
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	32
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	30
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	29

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	51	27.9%	10.4%	1.05	4.25
Frank Francisco ('14)	1.9	55	25.6%	10.3%	0.96	4.01
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Jason Grilli ('17)	3.4	53	23.4%	9.8%	1.00	4.22
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*