Blake Swihart
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | MLBBOS | 207 | .229/.285/.328 | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0.4 | ||
| 2019 | 27 | AAA/A+ARI | 143 | .192/.289/.384 | 6 | 0 | 30 | — | .140/.218/.264 | |
| 2019 | 27 | MLBARI | 99 | .163/.222/.304 | 4 | 0 | 49 | -0.8 | ||
| 2021 | 29 | AAAWSH | 204 | .198/.300/.339 | 5 | 2 | 32 | — | .151/.222/.237 | |
| 2022 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 344 | 90 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 68 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 262 | 314 | 395 | 709 | 134 | 300 | 18 | 7 | 310 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 422 | 376 | 112 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 41 | 63 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 298 | 368 | 428 | 797 | 130 | 350 | 15 | 10 | 353 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 71 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 282 | 377 | 659 | 116 | 321 | 21 | 3 | 292 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 347 | 104 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 65 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 300 | 355 | 487 | 842 | 187 | 337 | 17 | 8 | 369 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 309 | 288 | 79 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 77 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 274 | 319 | 392 | 712 | 118 | 359 | 25 | 6 | 317 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 80 | 74 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 311 | 362 | 351 | 714 | 41 | 383 | 18 | 8 | 327 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 74 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 370 | 355 | 725 | 97 | 348 | 23 | 15 | 328 | 111 | +1 | -0 | +2 | -2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 122 | 103 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 243 | 350 | 311 | 661 | 68 | 276 | 14 | 14 | 305 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 212 | 195 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 248 | 292 | 540 | 103 | 239 | 25 | 6 | 244 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 38 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 342 | 233 | 575 | 67 | 227 | 21 | 21 | 286 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 33 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 407 | 515 | 481 | 997 | 74 | 524 | 18 | 18 | 451 | 192 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 207 | 192 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 328 | 613 | 99 | 311 | 28 | 7 | 278 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 99 | 92 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 222 | 304 | 527 | 141 | 212 | 36 | 6 | 238 | 49 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 122 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 289 | 396 | 685 | 208 | 200 | 25 | 12 | 304 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 21 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 316 | 602 | 105 | 286 | 24 | 5 | 277 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 204 | 177 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 198 | 300 | 339 | 639 | 141 | 246 | 25 | 13 | 291 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 689 | 634 | 154 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 187 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 300 | 356 | 657 | 114 | 326 | 27 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -12 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +15 | 1.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 353 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 108 | 287 | 24 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 422 | 393 | 97 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 90 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 247 | 292 | 346 | 638 | 99 | 307 | 21 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 71 | 70 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 254 | 357 | 611 | 114 | 313 | 25 | 1 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 380 | 356 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 81 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 275 | 316 | 433 | 748 | 157 | 323 | 21 | 5 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 309 | 288 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 77 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 264 | 309 | 375 | 684 | 111 | 359 | 25 | 6 | 308 | 94 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +7 | 1.2 |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 80 | 76 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 289 | 325 | 329 | 654 | 39 | 377 | 22 | 5 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 74 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 370 | 355 | 725 | 97 | 348 | 23 | 15 | 333 | 111 | +1 | -0 | +2 | -2 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 122 | 109 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 317 | 312 | 629 | 64 | 288 | 17 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 212 | 198 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 214 | 247 | 462 | 81 | 229 | 31 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 38 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 211 | 121 | 332 | 30 | 168 | 32 | 13 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 207 | 192 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 224 | 280 | 318 | 598 | 94 | 311 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 99 | 92 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 222 | 304 | 527 | 141 | 212 | 36 | 6 | 241 | 49 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 122 | 110 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 215 | 273 | 488 | 136 | 165 | 34 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 211 | 449 | 53 | 226 | 33 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 204 | 186 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 151 | 222 | 237 | 458 | 86 | 205 | 30 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 353 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 238 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 108 | 295 | 24 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 344 | 90 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 68 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 262 | 314 | 395 | 709 | 134 | 300 | 18 | 7 | 310 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 422 | 393 | 97 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 90 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 247 | 292 | 346 | 638 | 99 | 312 | 21 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 422 | 376 | 112 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 41 | 63 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 298 | 368 | 428 | 797 | 130 | 350 | 15 | 10 | 353 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 426 | 114 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 100 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 268 | 304 | 415 | 719 | 148 | 324 | 22 | 5 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 416 | 122 | 26 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 80 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 293 | 344 | 469 | 812 | 175 | 334 | 18 | 7 | 356 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 364 | 98 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 269 | 313 | 365 | 678 | 96 | 352 | 24 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2015 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 389 | 362 | 102 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 91 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 282 | 328 | 384 | 712 | 102 | 365 | 23 | 6 | 319 | 92 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 1.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 196 | 171 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 251 | 337 | 327 | 664 | 76 | 311 | 19 | 11 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 196 | 165 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 248 | 358 | 327 | 685 | 79 | 301 | 17 | 14 | 314 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 283 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 87 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 156 | 214 | 225 | 439 | 69 | 220 | 31 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 283 | 252 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 68 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 210 | 292 | 306 | 597 | 95 | 271 | 24 | 10 | 274 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 207 | 192 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 224 | 280 | 318 | 598 | 94 | 303 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB RAW | Boston Red Sox | — | 207 | 192 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 328 | 613 | 99 | 311 | 28 | 7 | 278 | 69 | -8 | +1 | +2 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 242 | 221 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 149 | 220 | 285 | 505 | 136 | 192 | 35 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 261 | 350 | 612 | 171 | 213 | 30 | 9 | 275 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 204 | 186 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 151 | 222 | 237 | 458 | 86 | 205 | 30 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 204 | 177 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 198 | 300 | 339 | 639 | 141 | 246 | 25 | 13 | 291 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 358 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 91 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 273 | 341 | 614 | 106 | 287 | 24 | 4 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 422 | 394 | 97 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 90 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 246 | 292 | 345 | 637 | 99 | 307 | 21 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 426 | 114 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 100 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 268 | 304 | 415 | 719 | 148 | 321 | 22 | 5 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 389 | 363 | 98 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 95 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 270 | 313 | 366 | 679 | 96 | 363 | 24 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 196 | 172 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 250 | 337 | 326 | 662 | 76 | 311 | 19 | 11 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 283 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 87 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 156 | 214 | 225 | 439 | 69 | 220 | 31 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 207 | 190 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 280 | 321 | 601 | 95 | 311 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 242 | 220 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 84 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 220 | 286 | 506 | 136 | 189 | 35 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 204 | 185 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 151 | 222 | 238 | 460 | 86 | 205 | 30 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 689 | 634 | 154 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 187 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 243 | 300 | 356 | 657 | 114 | 326 | 27 | 7 | 295 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +15 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 145 | 26 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 176 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 242 | 300 | 355 | 654 | 112 | 325 | 27 | 7 | 295 | 69 | -11 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +14 | 1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2772 | 2568 | 581 | 106 | 19 | 42 | 173 | 704 | 7 | 40 | 20 | 226 | 277 | 331 | 608 | 105 | 293 | 25 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -12 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +15 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 136 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 165 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 226 | 278 | 331 | 609 | 105 | 292 | 25 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -11 | +0 | +3 | +6 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 204 PAwOBA .285 → .215 (−71)K% 25.0% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.75% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.46% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 15.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.82% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .215; ISO .141 → .102; BABIP .246 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAReno Aces · 122 PAwOBA .298 → .217 (−81)K% 25.4% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.41% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.30% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 8.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.67% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 12.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.025 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 2.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.003 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 5.81% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .298 → .217; ISO .208 → .141; BABIP .200 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Visalia Rawhide · 21 PAwOBA .270 → .190 (−79)K% 23.8% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.979 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 3.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 3.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 12.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.148 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.958 | 9.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.909 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.095 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 95, 2B 130, 3B 82, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .270 → .190; ISO .105 → .065; BABIP .286 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 212 PAwOBA .239 → .206 (−33)K% 25.5% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.47% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.44% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.23% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .239 → .206; ISO .103 → .082; BABIP .239 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKGCL Red Sox · 38 PAwOBA .280 → .183 (−98)K% 21.1% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 12.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 10.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .280 → .183; ISO .067 → .045; BABIP .227 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 122 PAwOBA .299 → .288 (−12)K% 13.9% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.93% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.11% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 9.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | ×1.038 | ×1.048 | 24.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.038 | ×1.048 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .299 → .288; ISO .068 → .066; BABIP .276 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 80 PAwOBA .318 → .291 (−27)K% 17.5% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 32.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 4.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .318 → .291; ISO .041 → .039; BABIP .383 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 380 PAwOBA .360 → .321 (−39)K% 17.1% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.11% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.40% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 23.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.61% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .360 → .321; ISO .187 → .162; BABIP .337 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .