John Nogowski
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 27 | INTLAguilas Cibae… | 89 | .260/.345/.299 | 1 | 1 | 86 | — | ||
| 2021 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 309 | .207/.322/.310 | 6 | 9 | 52 | — | .174/.271/.257 | |
| 2021 | 28 | MLBPIT | 143 | .233/.303/.310 | 1 | 0 | 75 | -1.3 | ||
| 2022 | 29 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 546 | .239/.358/.354 | 10 | 13 | 71 | — | .216/.310/.305 | |
| 2023 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | AZL Athletics | — | 37 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 324 | 429 | 753 | 143 | 323 | 11 | 5 | 332 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 402 | 354 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 354 | 364 | 719 | 90 | 304 | 12 | 10 | 326 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 26 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 231 | 304 | 535 | 174 | 105 | 12 | 12 | 245 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 325 | 288 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 285 | 356 | 410 | 766 | 125 | 305 | 11 | 8 | 341 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 238 | 207 | 61 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 295 | 381 | 382 | 763 | 87 | 324 | 11 | 11 | 346 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 35 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 257 | 312 | 570 | 125 | 240 | 20 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 347 | 298 | 92 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 41 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 309 | 398 | 463 | 861 | 154 | 296 | 6 | 12 | 380 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | — | 34 | 29 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 345 | 424 | 345 | 769 | 385 | 12 | 9 | 349 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 25 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 93 | 82 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 256 | 322 | 317 | 639 | 61 | 290 | 14 | 8 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 463 | 380 | 112 | 22 | 1 | 15 | 69 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 295 | 416 | 476 | 892 | 182 | 308 | 12 | 15 | 396 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 138 | 114 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 422 | 474 | 896 | 158 | 317 | 9 | 12 | 394 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 89 | 77 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 345 | 299 | 644 | 39 | 275 | 10 | 11 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 303 | 310 | 613 | 78 | 271 | 15 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -8 | +3 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 248 | 209 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 43 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 211 | 332 | 330 | 662 | 120 | 236 | 17 | 12 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 61 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 283 | 231 | 514 | 38 | 222 | 13 | 11 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 351 | 286 | 76 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 51 | 53 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 266 | 388 | 367 | 755 | 101 | 304 | 15 | 15 | 342 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 132 | 109 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 202 | 336 | 349 | 685 | 147 | 194 | 10 | 15 | 315 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 63 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 242 | 298 | 540 | 123 | 182 | 19 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 303 | 310 | 613 | 78 | 271 | 15 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -8 | +3 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 37 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 243 | 333 | 577 | 111 | 248 | 16 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 402 | 365 | 92 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 59 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 314 | 315 | 629 | 63 | 287 | 15 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 192 | 292 | 484 | 167 | 90 | 15 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 325 | 297 | 74 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 249 | 303 | 354 | 657 | 104 | 270 | 15 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 238 | 216 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 318 | 315 | 633 | 60 | 289 | 13 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 347 | 311 | 84 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 270 | 336 | 376 | 712 | 106 | 264 | 7 | 8 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK MLE | GCL Cardinals | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 333 | 267 | 600 | 298 | 18 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 463 | 401 | 97 | 19 | 1 | 12 | 48 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 242 | 338 | 384 | 722 | 142 | 262 | 15 | 10 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 303 | 310 | 613 | 78 | 271 | 15 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -8 | +3 | -1.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 248 | 218 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 50 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 174 | 271 | 257 | 528 | 83 | 206 | 20 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 351 | 302 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 61 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 232 | 324 | 311 | 635 | 79 | 264 | 17 | 10 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 132 | 115 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 174 | 275 | 287 | 562 | 113 | 167 | 12 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 37 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 243 | 333 | 577 | 111 | 267 | 16 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics | — | 37 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 324 | 429 | 753 | 143 | 323 | 11 | 5 | 332 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 402 | 365 | 92 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 59 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 314 | 315 | 629 | 63 | 293 | 15 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 402 | 354 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 47 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 354 | 364 | 719 | 90 | 304 | 12 | 10 | 326 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 321 | 77 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 295 | 349 | 644 | 109 | 265 | 15 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 351 | 311 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 273 | 347 | 402 | 749 | 129 | 291 | 11 | 8 | 334 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 273 | 248 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 321 | 319 | 640 | 60 | 294 | 13 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 273 | 239 | 67 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 365 | 372 | 738 | 92 | 314 | 12 | 11 | 335 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 474 | 423 | 114 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 270 | 335 | 366 | 702 | 97 | 273 | 8 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 474 | 409 | 123 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 301 | 385 | 425 | 810 | 125 | 301 | 8 | 11 | 360 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 517 | 127 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 246 | 343 | 391 | 734 | 145 | 267 | 15 | 10 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 601 | 494 | 148 | 28 | 1 | 19 | 86 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 300 | 418 | 476 | 893 | 176 | 310 | 11 | 14 | 396 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | INTL MLE | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 89 | 77 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 345 | 299 | 644 | 39 | 275 | 10 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 27 | INTL RAW | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 89 | 77 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 345 | 299 | 644 | 39 | 275 | 10 | 11 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 402 | 79 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 83 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 197 | 281 | 279 | 559 | 82 | 231 | 18 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 452 | 390 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 49 | 73 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 215 | 316 | 310 | 627 | 95 | 246 | 16 | 11 | 290 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 472 | 102 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 56 | 87 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 216 | 310 | 307 | 617 | 91 | 245 | 16 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 546 | 452 | 108 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 76 | 78 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 239 | 358 | 354 | 712 | 115 | 262 | 14 | 14 | 324 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 37 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 243 | 333 | 577 | 111 | 248 | 16 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 402 | 366 | 92 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 59 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 251 | 314 | 314 | 628 | 63 | 287 | 15 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 323 | 77 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 295 | 347 | 642 | 108 | 257 | 15 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 273 | 248 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 321 | 319 | 640 | 60 | 289 | 13 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 474 | 429 | 114 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 266 | 335 | 361 | 697 | 96 | 267 | 8 | 8 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 601 | 519 | 127 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 63 | 92 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 343 | 389 | 733 | 145 | 262 | 15 | 10 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 452 | 402 | 79 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 83 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 197 | 281 | 279 | 559 | 82 | 230 | 18 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 546 | 477 | 102 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 56 | 87 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 214 | 310 | 304 | 614 | 90 | 237 | 16 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 143 | 129 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 233 | 303 | 310 | 613 | 78 | 271 | 15 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -8 | +3 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 137 | 32 | 0 | 5 | 55 | 100 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 234 | 305 | 314 | 619 | 80 | 272 | 15 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -19 | -2 | -12 | -37 | +14 | -5.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3225 | 2861 | 683 | 118 | 2 | 50 | 272 | 462 | 50 | 30 | 16 | 239 | 316 | 334 | 650 | 95 | 265 | 14 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -4 | -0 | -3 | -8 | +3 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 137 | 24 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 93 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 237 | 315 | 331 | 646 | 94 | 264 | 14 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -19 | -2 | -12 | -37 | +14 | -5.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 351 PAwOBA .341 → .288 (−54)K% 15.1% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.10% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.53% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 10.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.971 | ×0.982 | 20.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×0.982 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.970 | ×0.971 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .341 → .288; ISO .101 → .083; BABIP .304 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHarrisburg Senators · 132 PAwOBA .310 → .251 (−59)K% 9.8% → 12.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.15% | ÷0.980 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.58% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 12.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.936 | ×0.860 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.964 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.979 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 3.18% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .310 → .251; ISO .147 → .121; BABIP .194 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 248 PAwOBA .300 → .247 (−53)K% 17.3% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.34% | ÷1.034 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.67% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.997 | ×0.992 | 16.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.22% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×0.992 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.52% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .300 → .247; ISO .120 → .092; BABIP .236 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 463 PAwOBA .390 → .323 (−67)K% 11.7% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.66% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 15.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.90% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 10.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.75% | ÷0.917 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.60% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.72% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .390 → .323; ISO .182 → .154; BABIP .308 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 347 PAwOBA .376 → .315 (−61)K% 6.1% → 7.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.05% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 7.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.27% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 22.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.973 | ×0.840 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.215 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .376 → .315; ISO .154 → .114; BABIP .296 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGCL Cardinals · 34 PAwOBA .351 → .265 (−86)K% 11.8% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 31.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .351 → .265; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .385 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AASpringfield Cardinals · 238 PAwOBA .341 → .288 (−53)K% 10.5% → 12.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.50% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.82% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 23.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.093 | ×0.940 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.315 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .341 → .288; ISO .087 → .067; BABIP .324 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Stockton Ports · 325 PAwOBA .333 → .285 (−48)K% 11.4% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.38% | ÷1.035 | ×1.340 | — | — | 14.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷1.065 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.90% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.939 | ×0.820 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.760 | ×0.968 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.79% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.40% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 98, K 107, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .333 → .285; ISO .125 → .109; BABIP .305 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .