Tyler Goeddel
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 470 | .259/.360/.378 | 6 | 16 | 71 | — | .221/.294/.313 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 267 | .219/.299/.329 | 4 | 4 | 43 | — | .193/.254/.283 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAWSH | 227 | .208/.304/.289 | 1 | 1 | 30 | — | .171/.241/.229 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 379 | 329 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 246 | 337 | 371 | 708 | 125 | 325 | 25 | 10 | 318 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 497 | 450 | 112 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 40 | 98 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 249 | 314 | 389 | 703 | 140 | 302 | 20 | 8 | 312 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | INTL | Brisbane Bandits | — | 26 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 346 | 381 | 727 | 190 | 250 | 19 | 19 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 479 | 424 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 98 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 269 | 350 | 408 | 758 | 139 | 335 | 20 | 10 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 533 | 473 | 132 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 98 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 279 | 353 | 433 | 786 | 154 | 326 | 18 | 9 | 347 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 53 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 214 | 191 | 53 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 277 | 352 | 361 | 713 | 84 | 347 | 19 | 9 | 324 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 256 | 214 | 52 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 44 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 243 | 367 | 393 | 760 | 150 | 285 | 17 | 13 | 348 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 104 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 320 | 341 | 661 | 110 | 290 | 20 | 11 | 300 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 163 | 146 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 110 | 252 | 20 | 7 | 274 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 227 | 197 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 208 | 304 | 289 | 593 | 81 | 310 | 31 | 10 | 274 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 55 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 379 | 339 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 204 | 278 | 292 | 570 | 88 | 305 | 35 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 497 | 465 | 98 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 25 | 139 | 3 | 30 | 5 | 211 | 256 | 320 | 576 | 110 | 285 | 28 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 479 | 436 | 98 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 142 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 225 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 110 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 533 | 488 | 124 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 121 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 254 | 309 | 383 | 692 | 129 | 309 | 23 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB MLE | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 214 | 197 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 239 | 296 | 310 | 605 | 71 | 311 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 256 | 228 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 55 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 206 | 293 | 316 | 609 | 110 | 262 | 21 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 104 | 94 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 272 | 298 | 570 | 96 | 269 | 27 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 163 | 150 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 242 | 273 | 516 | 87 | 234 | 26 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 227 | 205 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 171 | 241 | 229 | 470 | 59 | 272 | 38 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 379 | 339 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 204 | 278 | 292 | 570 | 88 | 316 | 35 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 379 | 329 | 81 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 94 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 246 | 337 | 371 | 708 | 125 | 325 | 25 | 10 | 318 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 490 | 104 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 26 | 146 | 3 | 33 | 5 | 212 | 256 | 322 | 579 | 110 | 289 | 28 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 523 | 471 | 116 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 45 | 103 | 3 | 33 | 5 | 246 | 316 | 389 | 705 | 142 | 299 | 20 | 9 | 313 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 479 | 436 | 98 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 142 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 225 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 110 | 320 | 30 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 479 | 424 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 98 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 269 | 350 | 408 | 758 | 139 | 335 | 20 | 10 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 533 | 488 | 124 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 121 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 254 | 309 | 383 | 692 | 129 | 315 | 23 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 533 | 473 | 132 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 98 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 279 | 353 | 433 | 786 | 154 | 326 | 18 | 9 | 347 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB MLE | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 247 | 53 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB RAW | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 53 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 425 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 104 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 226 | 299 | 320 | 619 | 94 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 470 | 405 | 105 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 84 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 259 | 360 | 378 | 738 | 119 | 314 | 18 | 11 | 337 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 244 | 47 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 254 | 283 | 537 | 90 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 237 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 299 | 329 | 628 | 110 | 267 | 20 | 9 | 284 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 227 | 205 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 171 | 241 | 229 | 470 | 59 | 281 | 38 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 227 | 197 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 208 | 304 | 289 | 593 | 81 | 310 | 31 | 10 | 274 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 379 | 341 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 131 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 202 | 278 | 290 | 568 | 88 | 305 | 35 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 489 | 104 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 26 | 146 | 3 | 33 | 5 | 213 | 256 | 323 | 579 | 110 | 285 | 28 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 479 | 435 | 98 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 142 | 7 | 20 | 9 | 225 | 291 | 336 | 627 | 110 | 319 | 30 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 533 | 489 | 124 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 121 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 254 | 309 | 382 | 692 | 129 | 309 | 23 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB MLE | Philadelphia Phillies | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 423 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 104 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 227 | 299 | 322 | 620 | 95 | 284 | 22 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 245 | 47 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 254 | 282 | 535 | 90 | 248 | 26 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 227 | 206 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 170 | 241 | 228 | 469 | 58 | 272 | 38 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 234 | 213 | 41 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 99 | 234 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 64 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 113 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 144 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 191 | 258 | 287 | 545 | 96 | 232 | 22 | 7 | 250 | 64 | -35 | +2 | -6 | -7 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3112 | 2840 | 614 | 108 | 37 | 36 | 201 | 852 | 45 | 135 | 37 | 216 | 279 | 318 | 597 | 102 | 294 | 27 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +5 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 129 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 178 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 218 | 280 | 324 | 603 | 106 | 294 | 27 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -35 | +2 | -6 | -7 | +14 | -3.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 227 PAwOBA .271 → .213 (−58)K% 30.8% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.84% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.13% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 20.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .271 → .213; ISO .081 → .061; BABIP .310 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATulsa Drillers · 163 PAwOBA .269 → .224 (−45)K% 20.2% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.25% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.36% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.35% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 19.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.65% | ÷0.991 | ×0.840 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 2.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.907 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.65% | ÷1.147 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 81, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .269 → .224; ISO .110 → .087; BABIP .252 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 104 PAwOBA .293 → .244 (−49)K% 20.2% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.19% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.018 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .293 → .244; ISO .110 → .087; BABIP .290 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 256 PAwOBA .336 → .276 (−61)K% 17.2% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.19% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.095 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.52% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 2.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.24% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 16.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 8.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.943 | ×0.880 | ×1.028 | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷1.399 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .336 → .276; ISO .150 → .118; BABIP .285 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAALouisville Bats · 214 PAwOBA .316 → .268 (−48)K% 18.7% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.15% | ÷1.038 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 24.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.113 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.042 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 108, 2B 110, 3B 123, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .316 → .268; ISO .084 → .069; BABIP .347 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 533 PAwOBA .341 → .301 (−40)K% 18.4% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.39% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.80% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.53% | ÷0.953 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.20% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .341 → .301; ISO .154 → .133; BABIP .326 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 479 PAwOBA .332 → .280 (−51)K% 20.5% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.46% | ÷0.977 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.01% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 21.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.45% | ÷1.109 | ×0.810 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.899 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 122, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .332 → .280; ISO .139 → .118; BABIP .335 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 497 PAwOBA .305 → .252 (−53)K% 19.7% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.72% | ÷0.958 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.85% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×1.015 | 20.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.11% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.015 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.41% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×1.015 | 3.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷1.044 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 95, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .305 → .252; ISO .140 → .115; BABIP .302 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).