JT Riddle

PosSS

B/TL/R

Born1991-10-12

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2020	28	MLBPIT	69	.149/.174/.224	1	1	8	-0.9
2021	29	AAAMIN	350	.202/.271/.322	7	3	28	—	.169/.219/.252
2022	30	AAANYM	350	.241/.272/.416	11	0	49	—	.206/.231/.331
2023	31	No MLB games played
2024	32	No MLB games played
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	477	435	122	17	4	9	26	55	4	5	1	280	327	400	727	120	300	12	5	317	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	189	173	50	6	1	5	8	24	2	0	0	289	328	422	750	133	306	13	4	324	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	198	185	50	6	1	0	11	29	0	7	3	270	311	314	625	43	321	15	6	282	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	49	46	10	3	0	1	2	10	0	1	1	217	250	348	598	130	250	20	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	57	56	15	2	0	1	1	9	0	1	0	268	281	357	638	89	304	16	2	284	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	429	389	108	18	4	3	33	72	0	5	1	278	334	368	702	90	331	17	8	312	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	247	228	57	13	1	3	12	50	0	0	2	250	287	355	643	105	300	20	5	280	79	-6	-1	+3	+3	+5	0.5
2017	25	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	64	63	18	4	1	2	1	8	0	1	0	286	297	476	773	190	302	12	2	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	332	308	71	10	4	9	20	67	0	0	3	231	277	377	654	146	266	20	6	287	86	-6	-1	+12	+5	+7	1.7
2018	26	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	91	81	28	4	1	3	8	15	0	2	0	346	404	531	935	185	391	16	9	403	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	139	132	25	6	0	6	5	42	2	0	0	189	230	371	601	182	226	30	4	266	70	-5	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.4
2019	27	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	131	121	29	10	1	4	6	20	1	3	0	240	281	438	719	198	253	15	5	308	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	69	67	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	149	174	224	398	75	170	19	3	179	8	-8	+0	-4	+0	+1	-0.9
2021	29	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	350	317	64	13	2	7	23	62	7	3	3	202	271	322	593	120	227	18	7	268	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	350	332	80	21	2	11	10	71	4	0	0	241	272	416	687	175	272	20	3	299	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	787	735	163	31	5	19	39	172	2	1	5	222	263	355	618	133	262	22	5	272	70	-28	-2	+9	+9	+17	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	477	444	118	15	4	6	17	75	4	5	1	266	299	358	657	92	293	16	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	189	176	48	6	1	4	5	30	2	0	0	273	301	386	687	114	291	16	3	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	198	188	45	5	1	0	8	41	0	7	3	239	270	277	547	37	305	21	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	57	56	14	2	0	1	1	11	0	1	0	250	263	339	602	89	285	19	2	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	429	401	103	18	4	2	21	89	0	5	1	257	294	337	630	80	312	21	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	247	230	59	14	1	3	10	50	0	0	2	257	287	365	653	109	300	20	4	284	79	-6	-1	+3	+3	+5	0.5
2017	25	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	64	64	17	4	1	2	0	11	0	1	0	266	266	453	719	188	283	17	0	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	332	309	73	11	4	9	19	67	0	0	3	236	280	385	666	149	266	20	6	295	86	-6	-1	+12	+5	+7	1.7
2018	26	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	91	83	25	4	1	2	6	18	0	2	0	301	348	446	794	145	350	20	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	139	133	26	7	0	6	4	42	2	0	0	195	230	383	614	188	226	30	3	272	70	-5	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.4
2019	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	131	124	25	8	1	3	3	27	1	3	0	202	227	355	581	153	223	21	2	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	69	67	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	149	174	224	398	75	170	19	3	181	8	-8	+0	-4	+0	+1	-0.9
2021	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	350	326	55	11	2	4	14	76	7	3	3	169	219	252	471	83	200	22	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	350	335	69	17	2	7	7	89	4	0	0	206	231	331	563	125	250	25	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	477	444	118	15	4	6	17	75	4	5	1	266	299	358	657	92	304	16	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	477	435	122	17	4	9	26	55	4	5	1	280	327	400	727	120	300	12	5	317	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	436	410	105	12	2	5	15	80	2	8	4	256	286	332	617	76	304	18	3	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	436	404	110	15	2	6	21	63	2	8	4	272	311	364	675	92	307	14	5	298	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	486	458	116	19	4	3	21	101	0	6	1	253	286	332	618	79	317	21	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	486	445	123	20	4	4	34	81	0	6	1	276	328	366	694	90	328	17	7	309	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	294	76	18	2	5	10	61	0	1	2	259	283	384	667	126	305	20	3	285	79	-8	-1	+3	+3	+7	0.5
2017	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	311	291	75	17	2	5	13	58	0	1	2	258	289	381	671	124	300	19	4	292	79	-8	-1	+3	+3	+7	0.5
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	423	392	99	15	5	12	25	85	0	2	3	253	297	408	706	156	293	20	6	306	93	-3	-1	+12	+5	+9	2.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	423	389	99	14	5	12	28	82	0	2	3	254	305	409	713	154	293	19	7	312	93	-3	-1	+12	+5	+9	2.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	270	257	51	15	1	9	7	69	3	3	0	198	228	370	598	171	232	26	3	260	62	-12	+1	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
2019	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	270	253	54	16	1	10	11	62	3	3	0	213	255	403	658	190	240	23	4	286	62	-12	+1	-2	+1	+6	-0.7
2020	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	69	67	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	149	174	224	398	75	170	19	3	181	8	-8	+0	-4	+0	+1	-0.9
2020	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	69	67	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	149	174	224	398	75	170	19	3	179	8	-8	+0	-4	+0	+1	-0.9
2021	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	350	326	55	11	2	4	14	76	7	3	3	169	219	252	471	83	205	22	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	350	317	64	13	2	7	23	62	7	3	3	202	271	322	593	120	227	18	7	268	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	350	335	69	17	2	7	7	89	4	0	0	206	231	331	563	125	255	25	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	—	350	332	80	21	2	11	10	71	4	0	0	241	272	416	687	175	272	20	3	299	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	477	453	118	15	4	6	17	75	4	5	1	260	299	351	650	91	293	16	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	436	416	105	12	2	5	15	80	2	8	4	252	286	327	613	75	298	18	3	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	486	462	116	19	4	3	21	101	0	6	1	251	286	329	615	78	309	21	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	298	76	18	2	5	10	61	0	1	2	255	283	379	662	124	297	20	3	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	423	395	99	15	5	12	25	85	0	2	3	251	297	405	702	154	284	20	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	270	258	51	15	1	9	7	69	3	3	0	198	228	368	597	171	225	26	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	69	67	10	2	0	1	2	13	0	1	0	149	174	224	398	75	170	19	3	181	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	350	326	55	11	2	4	14	76	7	3	3	169	219	252	471	83	200	22	4	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	350	336	69	17	2	7	7	89	4	0	0	205	231	330	562	125	250	25	2	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	787	735	163	31	5	19	39	172	2	1	5	222	263	355	618	133	262	22	5	272	65	-28	-2	+9	+9	+17	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	607	135	26	4	16	32	142	2	1	4	222	264	357	621	135	262	22	5	272	65	-23	-1	+8	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3172	2983	699	124	22	52	118	649	20	29	14	234	268	343	611	109	280	20	4	265	65	-28	-2	+9	+9	+17	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	611	144	25	5	11	24	133	4	6	3	236	269	347	616	111	281	20	4	265	65	-23	-1	+8	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 350 PAwOBA .294 → .240 (−53)K% 20.3% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.86%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.962	1.86%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.03%
Singles /BIP	17.62%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.029	×0.962	17.02%
Doubles /BIP	8.05%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.029	×0.962	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.77%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.029	×0.962	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	4.21%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .294 → .240; ISO .175 → .126; BABIP .272 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 350 PAwOBA .262 → .210 (−51)K% 17.7% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.71%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	21.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.29%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.12%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.83%
Singles /BIP	16.47%	÷1.035	×0.930	×1.031	×0.972	14.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷0.996	×0.830	×1.031	×0.972	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.031	×0.972	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.67%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .262 → .210; ISO .120 → .087; BABIP .227 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 131 PAwOBA .301 → .247 (−54)K% 15.3% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.27%	÷0.950	×1.290	—	—	20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.82%	÷1.085	×0.710	—	×0.992	2.48%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.74%
Singles /BIP	13.86%	÷0.971	×0.900	×1.006	×0.992	12.82%
Doubles /BIP	9.90%	÷0.952	×0.810	×1.006	×0.992	8.41%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.006	×0.992	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	3.96%	÷1.100	×0.780	—	×0.992	2.78%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .301 → .247; ISO .198 → .153; BABIP .253 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 91 PAwOBA .396 → .345 (−51)K% 16.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.48%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.79%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.003	6.32%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.30%	÷1.054	×0.900	×1.050	×1.003	27.25%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷0.906	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	5.71%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.031	×0.810	×1.050	×1.003	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.952	×0.780	—	×1.003	3.73%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 81, 3B 106, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .396 → .345; ISO .185 → .160; BABIP .391 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 64 PAwOBA .321 → .288 (−33)K% 12.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	16.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.005	×0.710	—	×1.018	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.015	×0.900	×1.050	×1.018	18.96%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷0.918	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	6.86%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷0.977	×0.810	×1.050	×1.018	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷0.928	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.11%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 95, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .321 → .288; ISO .190 → .164; BABIP .302 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAJacksonville Suns · 429 PAwOBA .305 → .270 (−35)K% 16.8% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.78%	÷0.986	×1.220	—	—	20.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.23%	÷1.029	×0.680	—	×0.998	4.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.18%	÷0.993	×0.920	×1.020	×0.998	24.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.68%	÷0.957	×0.910	×1.020	×0.998	5.49%
Triples /BIP	1.26%	÷1.013	×0.880	×1.020	×0.998	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	0.95%	÷1.423	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.53%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 185, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 103, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .305 → .270; ISO .090 → .077; BABIP .331 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 57 PAwOBA .276 → .244 (−32)K% 15.8% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.027	×1.290	—	—	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.75%	÷0.964	×0.710	—	×1.033	1.34%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.53%	÷1.041	×0.900	×1.050	×1.033	23.93%
Doubles /BIP	4.26%	÷0.929	×0.810	×1.050	×1.033	4.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.057	×0.810	×1.050	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.86%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 108, 2B 86, 3B 111, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .276 → .244; ISO .089 → .077; BABIP .304 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 198 PAwOBA .275 → .243 (−32)K% 14.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.65%	÷1.014	×1.420	—	—	20.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.037	×0.750	—	×0.988	3.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.56%	÷1.002	×0.920	×1.050	×0.988	26.26%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.064	×0.960	×1.050	×0.988	3.60%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.050	×0.988	0.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.819	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .275 → .243; ISO .043 → .039; BABIP .321 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).