Patrick Brady
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 265 | .227/.274/.393 | 9 | 3 | 40 | — | .185/.224/.307 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA/ROK2 orgs | 104 | .289/.330/.402 | 1 | 7 | 64 | — | .263/.291/.374 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAJackson Gener… | 297 | .227/.326/.339 | 2 | 6 | 53 | — | .201/.267/.299 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 60 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 143 | 183 | 232 | 415 | 89 | 143 | 10 | 3 | 188 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 74 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 281 | 370 | 438 | 807 | 156 | 327 | 12 | 11 | 355 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 138 | 128 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 297 | 338 | 414 | 752 | 117 | 340 | 17 | 5 | 332 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 194 | 171 | 43 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 251 | 326 | 368 | 695 | 117 | 283 | 12 | 8 | 309 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 36 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 344 | 417 | 531 | 948 | 188 | 476 | 28 | 11 | 418 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 249 | 222 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 279 | 347 | 505 | 851 | 225 | 295 | 16 | 9 | 367 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 25 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 250 | 100 | 350 | 154 | 32 | 16 | 184 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 149 | 141 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 257 | 418 | 675 | 170 | 287 | 23 | 1 | 289 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 91 | 81 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 222 | 308 | 420 | 727 | 198 | 288 | 29 | 10 | 323 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 85 | 79 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 278 | 321 | 380 | 701 | 101 | 339 | 19 | 6 | 311 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 19 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 368 | 500 | 868 | 167 | 400 | 16 | 5 | 380 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 297 | 251 | 57 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 74 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 227 | 326 | 339 | 665 | 112 | 309 | 25 | 12 | 296 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 60 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 103 | 133 | 172 | 306 | 69 | 115 | 15 | 2 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 74 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 313 | 587 | 104 | 256 | 18 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 138 | 130 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 287 | 338 | 625 | 85 | 309 | 25 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 194 | 175 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 223 | 284 | 331 | 616 | 109 | 255 | 18 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 36 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 333 | 424 | 758 | 152 | 409 | 33 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 249 | 229 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 218 | 269 | 376 | 645 | 157 | 247 | 22 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 25 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 208 | 95 | 304 | 139 | 40 | 12 | 146 | -15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 149 | 146 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 230 | 363 | 593 | 144 | 263 | 29 | 1 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 91 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 155 | 220 | 274 | 494 | 119 | 250 | 42 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 85 | 81 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 259 | 286 | 358 | 644 | 99 | 320 | 24 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 278 | 316 | 444 | 760 | 167 | 296 | 21 | 5 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 297 | 264 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 267 | 299 | 567 | 98 | 280 | 30 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 60 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 103 | 133 | 172 | 306 | 69 | 104 | 15 | 2 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK RAW | AZL Mariners | — | 60 | 56 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 143 | 183 | 232 | 415 | 89 | 143 | 10 | 3 | 188 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 74 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 274 | 313 | 587 | 104 | 259 | 18 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 74 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 281 | 370 | 438 | 807 | 156 | 327 | 12 | 11 | 355 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 305 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 233 | 282 | 328 | 610 | 95 | 285 | 20 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 332 | 299 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 48 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 271 | 331 | 388 | 719 | 117 | 306 | 14 | 7 | 318 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 263 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 224 | 274 | 373 | 647 | 148 | 270 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 285 | 254 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 49 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 287 | 356 | 508 | 864 | 220 | 314 | 17 | 9 | 374 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 251 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 183 | 221 | 307 | 527 | 124 | 253 | 34 | 4 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 265 | 242 | 55 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 227 | 274 | 393 | 666 | 165 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 104 | 99 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 253 | 282 | 354 | 635 | 101 | 324 | 23 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 104 | 97 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 289 | 330 | 402 | 732 | 113 | 351 | 18 | 6 | 324 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 297 | 264 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 267 | 299 | 567 | 98 | 291 | 30 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA RAW | Jackson Generals | — | 297 | 251 | 57 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 74 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 227 | 326 | 339 | 665 | 112 | 309 | 25 | 12 | 296 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 60 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 103 | 133 | 172 | 306 | 69 | 115 | 15 | 2 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 74 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 274 | 309 | 583 | 103 | 256 | 18 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 332 | 308 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 68 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 231 | 282 | 325 | 607 | 94 | 277 | 20 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 285 | 265 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 223 | 274 | 370 | 644 | 147 | 267 | 24 | 6 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 251 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 91 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 183 | 221 | 307 | 527 | 124 | 247 | 34 | 4 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 104 | 99 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 253 | 282 | 354 | 635 | 101 | 316 | 23 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 297 | 271 | 53 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 90 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 196 | 267 | 292 | 559 | 96 | 280 | 30 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1417 | 1307 | 274 | 53 | 12 | 23 | 77 | 362 | 10 | 32 | 21 | 210 | 259 | 321 | 580 | 112 | 270 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -75 | -2 | +0 | +5 | +31 | -4.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 126 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 166 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 210 | 259 | 325 | 584 | 115 | 270 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -34 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAJackson Generals · 297 PAwOBA .292 → .246 (−46)K% 24.9% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.92% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.011 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.47% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.968 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.889 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×0.968 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.138 | ×0.880 | ×1.000 | ×0.968 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.13% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.88% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 78, 3B 128, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .292 → .246; ISO .112 → .099; BABIP .309 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAATacoma Rainiers · 85 PAwOBA .303 → .266 (−37)K% 18.8% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.82% | ÷1.049 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.046 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 24.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 7.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 110, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .303 → .266; ISO .101 → .084; BABIP .339 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Mariners · 19 PAwOBA .370 → .250 (−120)K% 15.8% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .370 → .250; ISO .167 → .106; BABIP .400 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAJackson Generals · 149 PAwOBA .281 → .244 (−37)K% 22.8% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.82% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.34% | ÷1.083 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 0.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 20.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.74% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 3.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.975 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.930 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.77% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 94, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .281 → .244; ISO .170 → .144; BABIP .287 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+High Desert Mavericks · 91 PAwOBA .314 → .224 (−90)K% 28.6% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.925 | ×1.340 | — | — | 41.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷0.961 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | ×0.968 | 16.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×1.028 | ×0.968 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.001 | ×0.760 | ×1.028 | ×0.968 | 2.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.45% | ÷1.097 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 4.43% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 85, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .314 → .224; ISO .198 → .132; BABIP .288 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAATacoma Rainiers · 25 PAwOBA .188 → .146 (−43)K% 32.0% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.00% | ÷1.017 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 11.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.016 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 15.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 103, 2B 87, 3B 94, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .188 → .146; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .139. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+High Desert Mavericks · 249 PAwOBA .359 → .276 (−82)K% 15.7% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.66% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.84% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷1.038 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.978 | 17.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.978 | 5.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷1.083 | ×0.760 | ×1.018 | ×0.978 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.251 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 4.32% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 98, 3B 117, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .359 → .276; ISO .225 → .164; BABIP .295 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAJackson Generals · 36 PAwOBA .407 → .319 (−88)K% 27.8% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.82% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 27.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.065 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 11.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 129, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .407 → .319; ISO .188 → .144; BABIP .476 → .409. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).