Zach Neal prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zach Neal P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 37 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.82

FIP4.94

K%17.9%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.0

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.405

CH-0.6

CT-1.1

FB-3.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	168	713	100	35	17	96%	6.0	12.1%	5.3%	6.9%	3.0%	4.67	4.41	—
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	168	713	100	35	17	96%	6.0	14.0%	4.9%	9.1%	2.4%	4.67	3.85	—
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	132	535	59	14	14	49%	3.8	10.3%	2.7%	7.6%	3.0%	3.76	4.24	+0.5
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	132	535	59	14	14	49%	3.8	11.0%	2.6%	8.4%	2.6%	3.76	3.91	+1.0
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	16	114	478	53	10	14	59%	4.2	10.0%	2.2%	7.8%	3.5%	5.23	4.47	+0.6
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	16	114	478	53	10	14	59%	4.2	11.1%	2.1%	9.0%	2.9%	5.23	4.03	+1.2
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	14	102	438	68	15	16	42%	3.1	13.8%	3.6%	10.2%	3.7%	4.68	4.44	+0.1
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	14	102	438	68	15	16	42%	3.1	15.5%	3.4%	12.1%	3.7%	4.68	4.25	+0.4
2022	33	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	29	21	117	519	95	28	28	72%	4.0	16.1%	5.7%	10.4%	5.6%	6.87	5.53	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	29	21	117	519	95	28	28	72%	4.0	18.3%	5.4%	12.9%	5.4%	6.87	5.31	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	12	101	457	79	29	26	38%	3.2	15.6%	6.0%	9.6%	6.3%	5.60	5.98	-1.6
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	12	101	457	79	29	26	38%	3.2	15.6%	6.0%	9.6%	6.3%	5.60	5.98	-1.6
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	12	101	457	79	29	26	38%	3.2	17.3%	6.3%	10.9%	5.7%	5.60	5.73	-1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	8	113	475	62	20	23	18%	2.5	13.1%	4.2%	8.8%	4.8%	5.35	5.19	-0.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	8.4%	9.5%	3.5%	4.82	4.94	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	OAK	7	7	51	217	36	20	8	100%	7.3	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	3.9%	5.15	5.37	-0.3
2028	39	MLB MLE	OAK	6	6	44	186	29	18	8	100%	7.4	15.6%	9.8%	5.8%	4.4%	5.54	5.81	-0.4
2027	38	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.7%	9.1%	7.6%	3.9%	5.15	5.37	—
2028	39	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	9.8%	5.8%	4.4%	5.54	5.81	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	8	113	475	62	20	23	18%	2.5	13.1%	4.2%	8.8%	4.8%	5.35	5.19	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		80	14	200	843	110	36	41	18%	2.5	13.1%	4.2%	8.8%	4.8%	5.35	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		184	107	733	3140	405	135	129	58%	4.0	12.9%	4.3%	8.6%	4.1%	5.07	4.81	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	29	200	857	111	37	35	58%	4.0	12.9%	4.3%	8.6%	4.1%	5.07	4.81	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Neal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	17.9%	8.4%	3.5%	—	5.57	16.2%	6.8%	95	+0.63	—	—	—
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	59
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	56
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	52
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	50
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	50
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	50
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	44
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	43
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	42
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	42
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	42
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	36
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	35
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	32
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	30
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	29
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	28
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	28
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	28
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	28

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	54	15.3%	7.1%	1.66	5.23
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94