Ronald Bueno
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+/ACIN | 392 | .256/.337/.348 | 1 | 16 | 55 | — | .222/.284/.300 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 212 | .245/.338/.359 | 3 | 4 | 60 | — | .214/.281/.302 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+CWS | 362 | .244/.331/.397 | 8 | 2 | 63 | — | .209/.270/.328 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 278 | 224 | 65 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 35 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 290 | 411 | 357 | 768 | 67 | 339 | 13 | 15 | 347 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 236 | 190 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 279 | 399 | 337 | 736 | 58 | 340 | 15 | 15 | 333 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 166 | 132 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 250 | 393 | 394 | 787 | 144 | 267 | 8 | 17 | 353 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 200 | 175 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 280 | 340 | 377 | 717 | 97 | 318 | 12 | 8 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 204 | 182 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 253 | 310 | 324 | 634 | 71 | 322 | 19 | 6 | 279 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 121 | 106 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 226 | 293 | 274 | 567 | 47 | 279 | 20 | 7 | 253 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 271 | 230 | 62 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 50 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 270 | 356 | 383 | 739 | 113 | 335 | 18 | 10 | 323 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 39 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 242 | 342 | 242 | 585 | 364 | 31 | 13 | 275 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 173 | 151 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 245 | 337 | 384 | 721 | 139 | 283 | 16 | 12 | 325 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 182 | 162 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 222 | 300 | 407 | 707 | 185 | 259 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 67 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 338 | 296 | 635 | 93 | 217 | 10 | 16 | 292 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 113 | 99 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 303 | 378 | 434 | 813 | 131 | 354 | 15 | 10 | 358 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 278 | 236 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 203 | 304 | 250 | 554 | 47 | 228 | 15 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 236 | 201 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 189 | 285 | 224 | 509 | 35 | 224 | 19 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 166 | 142 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 148 | 258 | 218 | 476 | 70 | 165 | 10 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 200 | 181 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 267 | 298 | 565 | 72 | 255 | 18 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 204 | 186 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 242 | 284 | 312 | 596 | 70 | 309 | 24 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 121 | 108 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 204 | 259 | 250 | 509 | 46 | 255 | 29 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 271 | 239 | 55 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 70 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 230 | 295 | 322 | 617 | 92 | 298 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 39 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 289 | 229 | 518 | 342 | 36 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 173 | 157 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 279 | 318 | 598 | 108 | 262 | 23 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 182 | 167 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 192 | 250 | 329 | 579 | 138 | 242 | 27 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 67 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 190 | 277 | 276 | 553 | 86 | 206 | 13 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 113 | 104 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 250 | 297 | 356 | 653 | 106 | 313 | 22 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 278 | 236 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 203 | 304 | 250 | 554 | 47 | 245 | 15 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 278 | 224 | 65 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 41 | 35 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 290 | 411 | 357 | 768 | 67 | 339 | 13 | 15 | 347 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 236 | 201 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 189 | 285 | 224 | 509 | 35 | 239 | 19 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 236 | 190 | 53 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 279 | 399 | 337 | 736 | 58 | 340 | 15 | 15 | 333 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 166 | 142 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 148 | 258 | 218 | 476 | 70 | 161 | 10 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 166 | 132 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 250 | 393 | 394 | 787 | 144 | 267 | 8 | 17 | 353 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 200 | 181 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 267 | 298 | 565 | 72 | 275 | 18 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 200 | 175 | 49 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 280 | 340 | 377 | 717 | 97 | 318 | 12 | 8 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 204 | 186 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 242 | 284 | 312 | 596 | 70 | 328 | 24 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 204 | 182 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 253 | 310 | 324 | 634 | 71 | 322 | 19 | 6 | 279 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 347 | 77 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 105 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 222 | 284 | 300 | 584 | 78 | 306 | 27 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 392 | 336 | 86 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 37 | 74 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 256 | 337 | 348 | 685 | 92 | 317 | 19 | 9 | 301 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 192 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 54 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 89 | 285 | 25 | 8 | 258 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 212 | 184 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 245 | 338 | 359 | 697 | 114 | 296 | 19 | 12 | 316 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 362 | 328 | 70 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 213 | 275 | 335 | 611 | 122 | 268 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 362 | 315 | 77 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 244 | 331 | 397 | 728 | 152 | 283 | 18 | 11 | 322 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 278 | 242 | 48 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 198 | 304 | 244 | 548 | 45 | 228 | 15 | 10 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 236 | 207 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 184 | 285 | 217 | 502 | 34 | 224 | 19 | 10 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 166 | 144 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 146 | 258 | 215 | 473 | 69 | 165 | 10 | 11 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 200 | 188 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 267 | 287 | 554 | 69 | 255 | 18 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 204 | 191 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 236 | 284 | 304 | 588 | 68 | 309 | 24 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 392 | 359 | 77 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 26 | 105 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 214 | 284 | 290 | 574 | 75 | 285 | 27 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 192 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 54 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 89 | 277 | 25 | 8 | 258 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 362 | 331 | 70 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 211 | 275 | 332 | 608 | 121 | 258 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2050 | 1813 | 381 | 60 | 24 | 10 | 161 | 431 | 18 | 69 | 40 | 210 | 281 | 286 | 567 | 76 | 267 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | -114 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +44 | -6.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 121 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 137 | 6 | 22 | 13 | 210 | 282 | 287 | 569 | 77 | 268 | 21 | 8 | 247 | 53 | -36 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 182 PAwOBA .303 → .252 (−51)K% 22.0% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.98% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.34% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.39% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 15.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 5.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.077 | ×0.970 | ×1.014 | ×1.033 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .303 → .252; ISO .185 → .148; BABIP .259 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 113 PAwOBA .352 → .282 (−70)K% 15.0% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.04% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.61% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 23.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.902 | ×0.800 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 2.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.275 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.84% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .352 → .282; ISO .131 → .100; BABIP .354 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 67 PAwOBA .285 → .252 (−34)K% 10.4% → 13.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.45% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.42% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 11.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 16.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .252; ISO .093 → .091; BABIP .217 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 173 PAwOBA .317 → .262 (−54)K% 16.2% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.18% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.059 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.70% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 17.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.061 | ×0.960 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 7.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.063 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .317 → .262; ISO .139 → .115; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 39 PAwOBA .276 → .238 (−38)K% 30.8% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷1.042 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷1.075 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.10% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 35.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .276 → .238; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ADayton Dragons · 271 PAwOBA .318 → .263 (−55)K% 18.5% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.44% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.990 | 22.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×0.990 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.137 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.990 | 2.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 127, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .318 → .263; ISO .113 → .090; BABIP .335 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 121 PAwOBA .255 → .218 (−37)K% 19.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.44% | ÷0.934 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 5.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 22.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.988 | ×0.960 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 3.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .255 → .218; ISO .047 → .038; BABIP .279 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ADayton Dragons · 204 PAwOBA .272 → .251 (−21)K% 19.1% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.12% | ÷1.082 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.37% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 24.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.90% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.10% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 116, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .272 → .251; ISO .071 → .071; BABIP .322 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).