Jesus Loya
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 27 | AAAGenerales de … | 265 | .276/.324/.418 | 7 | 0 | 45 | — | .219/.246/.308 |
| 2020 | 28 | INTLMayos de Navo… | 71 | .258/.333/.371 | 1 | 0 | 96 | — | |
| 2025 | 33 | INTLNaranjeros de… | 111 | .293/.352/.404 | 3 | 4 | 111 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox | — | 304 | 256 | 68 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 41 | 45 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 266 | 371 | 344 | 715 | 78 | 316 | 15 | 13 | 325 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 211 | 191 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 267 | 327 | 346 | 672 | 79 | 314 | 16 | 6 | 303 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 40 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 425 | 425 | 500 | 925 | 75 | 447 | 5 | 0 | 413 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 134 | 125 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 296 | 338 | 360 | 698 | 64 | 343 | 13 | 5 | 314 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 296 | 345 | 481 | 826 | 185 | 348 | 13 | 3 | 351 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 96 | 89 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 284 | 382 | 666 | 146 | 279 | 20 | 6 | 293 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 54 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 170 | 264 | 170 | 434 | 205 | 15 | 11 | 212 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 107 | 99 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 274 | 253 | 526 | 30 | 293 | 22 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 270 | 228 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 375 | 342 | 717 | 66 | 350 | 19 | 12 | 326 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 125 | 125 | 125 | 250 | 143 | 12 | 0 | 113 | -37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 194 | 177 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 237 | 297 | 271 | 568 | 34 | 309 | 21 | 7 | 261 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Generales de Durango | — | 100 | 95 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 232 | 263 | 495 | 63 | 273 | 28 | 3 | 223 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Generales de Durango | — | 265 | 239 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 276 | 324 | 418 | 743 | 142 | 326 | 20 | 6 | 320 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 71 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 113 | 283 | 11 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 111 | 99 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 293 | 352 | 404 | 756 | 111 | 329 | 16 | 6 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 304 | 268 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 55 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 172 | 258 | 220 | 478 | 49 | 206 | 18 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 211 | 195 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 215 | 264 | 282 | 546 | 67 | 266 | 23 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 325 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 50 | 357 | 8 | 0 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 134 | 127 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 276 | 308 | 331 | 639 | 55 | 325 | 17 | 4 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 276 | 370 | 646 | 148 | 264 | 20 | 3 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 54 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 226 | 163 | 390 | 194 | 20 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 270 | 243 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 255 | 314 | 317 | 631 | 62 | 323 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 194 | 181 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 227 | 271 | 260 | 531 | 33 | 296 | 25 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 100 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 177 | 202 | 240 | 442 | 62 | 256 | 34 | 2 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 265 | 247 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 219 | 246 | 308 | 554 | 89 | 265 | 26 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 304 | 268 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 55 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 172 | 258 | 220 | 478 | 49 | 212 | 18 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox | — | 304 | 256 | 68 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 41 | 45 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 266 | 371 | 344 | 715 | 78 | 316 | 15 | 13 | 325 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 211 | 195 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 215 | 264 | 282 | 546 | 67 | 276 | 23 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 211 | 191 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 267 | 327 | 346 | 672 | 79 | 314 | 16 | 6 | 303 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 325 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 50 | 351 | 8 | 0 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 40 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 425 | 425 | 500 | 925 | 75 | 447 | 5 | 0 | 413 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 260 | 247 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 259 | 288 | 320 | 608 | 61 | 317 | 17 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 260 | 241 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 274 | 319 | 382 | 701 | 108 | 322 | 15 | 5 | 311 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 161 | 147 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 150 | 214 | 150 | 363 | 193 | 20 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 161 | 146 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 205 | 270 | 226 | 496 | 21 | 263 | 20 | 8 | 232 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 286 | 258 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 256 | 314 | 318 | 632 | 62 | 332 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 286 | 244 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 266 | 361 | 328 | 689 | 61 | 335 | 19 | 12 | 314 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 194 | 181 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 227 | 271 | 260 | 531 | 33 | 308 | 25 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 194 | 177 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 237 | 297 | 271 | 568 | 34 | 309 | 21 | 7 | 261 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 100 | 96 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 177 | 202 | 240 | 442 | 62 | 262 | 34 | 2 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | Generales de Durango | — | 100 | 95 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 232 | 263 | 495 | 63 | 273 | 28 | 3 | 223 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 265 | 247 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 219 | 246 | 308 | 554 | 89 | 281 | 26 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | Generales de Durango | — | 265 | 239 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 276 | 324 | 418 | 743 | 142 | 326 | 20 | 6 | 320 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL MLE | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 71 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 113 | 283 | 11 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 28 | INTL RAW | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 71 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 333 | 371 | 704 | 113 | 283 | 11 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL MLE | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 111 | 99 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 293 | 352 | 404 | 756 | 111 | 329 | 16 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 33 | INTL RAW | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 111 | 99 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 293 | 352 | 404 | 756 | 111 | 329 | 16 | 6 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox | — | 304 | 270 | 46 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 55 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 170 | 258 | 219 | 476 | 48 | 206 | 18 | 10 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 211 | 196 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 214 | 264 | 281 | 545 | 66 | 266 | 23 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 40 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 325 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 50 | 357 | 8 | 0 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 260 | 248 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 258 | 288 | 319 | 606 | 60 | 314 | 17 | 3 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 161 | 148 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 149 | 214 | 149 | 362 | 194 | 20 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 286 | 262 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 62 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 252 | 314 | 313 | 627 | 61 | 323 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 194 | 181 | 41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 227 | 271 | 260 | 531 | 33 | 296 | 25 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 100 | 97 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 202 | 237 | 439 | 62 | 256 | 34 | 2 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Generales de Durango | — | 265 | 254 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 68 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 213 | 246 | 299 | 545 | 87 | 265 | 26 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2003 | 1840 | 410 | 49 | 13 | 12 | 107 | 423 | 20 | 56 | 23 | 223 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 60 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 216 | 32 | -162 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +43 | -11.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 133 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 137 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 223 | 272 | 283 | 555 | 60 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 216 | 32 | -53 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAGenerales de Durango · 265 PAwOBA .310 → .235 (−75)K% 20.4% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.38% | ÷0.946 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.53% | ÷1.118 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.95% | ÷1.034 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 22.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.163 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 3.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.78% | ÷1.311 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.03% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 162, 1B 107, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 89, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .235; ISO .142 → .086; BABIP .326 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAGenerales de Durango · 100 PAwOBA .217 → .184 (−33)K% 28.0% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 1.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 1.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.033 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .217 → .184; ISO .063 → .049; BABIP .273 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 194 PAwOBA .253 → .230 (−23)K% 21.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.030 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.19% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 27.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 1.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 106, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .253 → .230; ISO .034 → .028; BABIP .309 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 270 PAwOBA .312 → .286 (−27)K% 18.9% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.89% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.37% | ÷1.102 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.81% | ÷1.095 | ×0.930 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 26.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.65% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.907 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷0.867 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.48% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 119, 2B 87, 3B 81, K 110, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .312 → .286; ISO .066 → .067; BABIP .350 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AGreenville Drive · 54 PAwOBA .207 → .173 (−34)K% 14.8% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷0.955 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.001 | ×0.660 | — | — | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | — | 19.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .207 → .173; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .205 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AGreenville Drive · 134 PAwOBA .306 → .271 (−34)K% 12.7% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.22% | ÷0.986 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 3.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 27.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.124 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .306 → .271; ISO .064 → .050; BABIP .343 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ROKGCL Red Sox · 30 PAwOBA .341 → .251 (−91)K% 13.3% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 2.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 14.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .251; ISO .185 → .131; BABIP .348 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKGCL Red Sox · 40 PAwOBA .401 → .311 (−91)K% 5.0% → 7.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 7.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 30.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .401 → .311; ISO .075 → .052; BABIP .447 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .