Carlos Penuelas
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | AAAAcereros del … | 281 | .311/.361/.362 | 1 | 9 | 88 | — | .305/.343/.351 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAAAcereros del … | 228 | .246/.314/.300 | 1 | 4 | 49 | — | .231/.269/.278 |
| 2017 | 29 | AAAOlmecas de Ta… | 241 | .258/.311/.312 | 2 | 0 | 53 | — | .238/.273/.286 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 23 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 44 | 39 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 333 | 366 | 410 | 776 | 77 | 361 | 7 | 5 | 325 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 106 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 317 | 326 | 643 | 76 | 310 | 22 | 8 | 281 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 153 | 130 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 331 | 404 | 431 | 835 | 100 | 385 | 14 | 10 | 360 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 249 | 220 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 268 | 343 | 359 | 702 | 91 | 304 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 281 | 254 | 79 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 311 | 361 | 362 | 724 | 51 | 380 | 17 | 6 | 322 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 228 | 203 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 246 | 314 | 300 | 614 | 54 | 282 | 12 | 9 | 278 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 241 | 221 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 258 | 311 | 312 | 623 | 54 | 293 | 13 | 6 | 283 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 44 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 325 | 341 | 400 | 741 | 75 | 331 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 106 | 95 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 277 | 305 | 582 | 74 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 153 | 134 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 321 | 377 | 418 | 795 | 97 | 366 | 18 | 7 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 249 | 228 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 237 | 290 | 303 | 592 | 66 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 281 | 259 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 305 | 343 | 351 | 694 | 46 | 370 | 19 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 228 | 212 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 231 | 269 | 278 | 547 | 47 | 264 | 15 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 241 | 227 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 238 | 273 | 286 | 559 | 48 | 274 | 16 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 44 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 325 | 341 | 400 | 741 | 75 | 361 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 44 | 39 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 333 | 366 | 410 | 776 | 77 | 361 | 7 | 5 | 325 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 106 | 95 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 277 | 305 | 582 | 74 | 313 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 106 | 92 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 317 | 326 | 643 | 76 | 310 | 22 | 8 | 281 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 153 | 134 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 321 | 377 | 418 | 795 | 97 | 389 | 18 | 7 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 153 | 130 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 331 | 404 | 431 | 835 | 100 | 385 | 14 | 10 | 360 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 249 | 228 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 237 | 290 | 303 | 592 | 66 | 284 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 249 | 220 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 268 | 343 | 359 | 702 | 91 | 304 | 14 | 8 | 316 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 281 | 259 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 305 | 343 | 351 | 694 | 46 | 382 | 19 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | Acereros del Norte | — | 281 | 254 | 79 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 311 | 361 | 362 | 724 | 51 | 380 | 17 | 6 | 322 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 228 | 212 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 231 | 269 | 278 | 547 | 47 | 271 | 15 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | Acereros del Norte | — | 228 | 203 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 246 | 314 | 300 | 614 | 54 | 282 | 12 | 9 | 278 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 241 | 227 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 238 | 273 | 286 | 559 | 48 | 277 | 16 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA RAW | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 241 | 221 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 258 | 311 | 312 | 623 | 54 | 293 | 13 | 6 | 283 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 44 | 43 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 302 | 341 | 372 | 714 | 70 | 331 | 9 | 2 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 106 | 99 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 277 | 293 | 570 | 71 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Saraperos de Saltillo | — | 153 | 140 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 307 | 377 | 400 | 777 | 93 | 366 | 18 | 7 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rieleros de Aguascalientes | — | 249 | 230 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 235 | 290 | 300 | 590 | 65 | 279 | 18 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 281 | 264 | 79 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 54 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 299 | 343 | 345 | 688 | 45 | 370 | 19 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 228 | 215 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 228 | 269 | 274 | 543 | 47 | 264 | 15 | 5 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 241 | 228 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 273 | 285 | 558 | 48 | 274 | 16 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1302 | 1195 | 314 | 39 | 4 | 8 | 62 | 232 | 11 | 21 | 22 | 263 | 305 | 322 | 627 | 59 | 318 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -47 | -5 | +0 | -14 | +28 | -3.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 156 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 116 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 261 | 303 | 320 | 623 | 59 | 316 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -23 | -2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 241 PAwOBA .275 → .246 (−29)K% 13.3% → 15.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.28% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.81% | ÷1.045 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 3.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.46% | ÷0.984 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×0.982 | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.12% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×0.982 | 1.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×0.982 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.886 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.82% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .275 → .246; ISO .054 → .045; BABIP .293 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAAcereros del Norte · 228 PAwOBA .266 → .240 (−26)K% 12.3% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.28% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.43% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 22.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.57% | ÷1.013 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 3.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.941 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.42% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 125, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .266 → .240; ISO .054 → .046; BABIP .282 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAAcereros del Norte · 281 PAwOBA .314 → .298 (−16)K% 17.1% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.08% | ÷1.063 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.69% | ÷0.979 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.50% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 33.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 3.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.32% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 113, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .314 → .298; ISO .051 → .042; BABIP .380 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARieleros de Aguascalientes · 249 PAwOBA .307 → .264 (−43)K% 14.1% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.06% | ÷0.929 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.86% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.018 | 23.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.105 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.018 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×1.018 | 0.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.62% | ÷1.197 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.97% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 106, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .307 → .264; ISO .091 → .065; BABIP .304 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 153 PAwOBA .356 → .334 (−22)K% 14.4% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.38% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.057 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 28.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.26% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 8.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.129 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.59% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 111, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 93, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .356 → .334; ISO .100 → .091; BABIP .385 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 106 PAwOBA .281 → .240 (−42)K% 21.7% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.70% | ÷0.928 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷1.136 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.036 | ×0.930 | ×0.978 | ×1.048 | 25.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.90% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×1.048 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.048 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.45% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.08% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 107, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 86, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .281 → .240; ISO .076 → .062; BABIP .310 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 44 PAwOBA .308 → .303 (−5)K% 6.8% → 8.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.82% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.27% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 1.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 25.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .303; ISO .077 → .073; BABIP .361 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).