Stevie Wilkerson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 193 | .262/.349/.396 | 4 | 0 | 92 | — | .233/.292/.414 | |
| 2018 | 26 | MLBBAL | 49 | .174/.224/.239 | 0 | 1 | 31 | -0.5 | ||
| 2019 | 27 | AAABAL | 67 | .323/.354/.452 | 2 | 3 | 94 | — | .302/.323/.429 | |
| 2019 | 27 | MLBBAL | 361 | .225/.288/.383 | 10 | 3 | 84 | -0.4 | ||
| 2021 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 189 | .222/.339/.342 | 4 | 0 | 64 | — | .208/.285/.269 | |
| 2021 | 29 | MLBBAL | 76 | .167/.211/.208 | 0 | 2 | 18 | -0.6 | ||
| 2022 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 23 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 401 | 342 | 98 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 84 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 287 | 381 | 371 | 752 | 85 | 368 | 21 | 11 | 339 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 461 | 402 | 101 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 98 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 251 | 336 | 343 | 679 | 92 | 321 | 21 | 10 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 273 | 245 | 72 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 294 | 357 | 420 | 777 | 127 | 351 | 19 | 7 | 344 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 180 | 155 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 323 | 407 | 426 | 833 | 103 | 425 | 22 | 11 | 371 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 97 | 82 | 26 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 317 | 404 | 512 | 916 | 195 | 362 | 14 | 9 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 49 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 224 | 239 | 464 | 65 | 267 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 31 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 86 | 74 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 270 | 341 | 500 | 841 | 230 | 276 | 17 | 6 | 353 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 21 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 158 | 238 | 211 | 449 | 53 | 231 | 29 | 10 | 214 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 86 | 71 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 386 | 338 | 724 | 56 | 345 | 19 | 13 | 326 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 361 | 329 | 74 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 108 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 288 | 383 | 671 | 158 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 298 | 84 | -7 | -1 | -6 | +2 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 67 | 62 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 323 | 354 | 452 | 805 | 129 | 353 | 13 | 4 | 347 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | — | 76 | 72 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 208 | 419 | 42 | 286 | 39 | 4 | 195 | 18 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 146 | 123 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 354 | 341 | 696 | 98 | 337 | 27 | 14 | 318 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 43 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 200 | 158 | 35 | 16 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 486 | 447 | 94 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 269 | 340 | 609 | 130 | 295 | 32 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -17 | +0 | -10 | +3 | +11 | -1.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 401 | 359 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 115 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 242 | 310 | 315 | 624 | 72 | 331 | 29 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 461 | 419 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 139 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 205 | 265 | 274 | 539 | 69 | 287 | 30 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 273 | 253 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 269 | 312 | 372 | 684 | 103 | 335 | 25 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 180 | 162 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 272 | 333 | 346 | 679 | 74 | 403 | 32 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 49 | 46 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 224 | 239 | 464 | 65 | 267 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 31 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 86 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 317 | 467 | 784 | 213 | 238 | 21 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 190 | 200 | 390 | 50 | 215 | 38 | 5 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 361 | 329 | 73 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 108 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 222 | 285 | 371 | 656 | 149 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 292 | 84 | -7 | -1 | -6 | +2 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 67 | 63 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 302 | 323 | 429 | 752 | 127 | 320 | 16 | 3 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB MLE | Baltimore Orioles | — | 76 | 72 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 208 | 419 | 42 | 286 | 39 | 4 | 195 | 18 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 146 | 130 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 285 | 269 | 554 | 62 | 312 | 33 | 10 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 401 | 359 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 115 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 242 | 310 | 315 | 624 | 72 | 344 | 29 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 401 | 342 | 98 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 45 | 84 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 287 | 381 | 371 | 752 | 85 | 368 | 21 | 11 | 339 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 461 | 419 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 139 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 205 | 265 | 274 | 539 | 69 | 297 | 30 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 461 | 402 | 101 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 98 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 251 | 336 | 343 | 679 | 92 | 321 | 21 | 10 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 550 | 502 | 136 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 150 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 271 | 322 | 361 | 683 | 90 | 370 | 27 | 5 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 550 | 482 | 148 | 26 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 107 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 307 | 381 | 438 | 819 | 131 | 376 | 19 | 9 | 361 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 242 | 219 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 64 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 260 | 342 | 602 | 137 | 252 | 26 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 242 | 210 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 243 | 323 | 362 | 685 | 119 | 296 | 22 | 9 | 303 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 392 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 119 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 232 | 288 | 378 | 666 | 145 | 303 | 28 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 428 | 391 | 94 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 117 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 240 | 298 | 394 | 692 | 153 | 311 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 85 | -7 | +0 | -6 | +2 | +9 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 241 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 263 | 266 | 529 | 66 | 311 | 35 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 265 | 230 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 84 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 302 | 300 | 602 | 96 | 299 | 32 | 12 | 277 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 401 | 363 | 87 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 115 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 240 | 310 | 311 | 621 | 72 | 331 | 29 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 461 | 424 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 139 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 203 | 265 | 271 | 536 | 68 | 287 | 30 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 550 | 507 | 136 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 150 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 268 | 322 | 357 | 679 | 89 | 362 | 27 | 5 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 242 | 224 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 64 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 201 | 260 | 335 | 594 | 134 | 244 | 26 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 428 | 394 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 119 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 231 | 288 | 376 | 664 | 145 | 304 | 28 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 242 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 93 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 263 | 264 | 528 | 66 | 303 | 35 | 8 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 486 | 447 | 94 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 154 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 269 | 340 | 609 | 130 | 295 | 32 | 6 | 273 | 69 | -17 | +0 | -10 | +3 | +11 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 206 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 211 | 269 | 339 | 609 | 129 | 296 | 32 | 6 | 273 | 69 | -22 | +0 | -14 | +4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2347 | 2132 | 493 | 90 | 10 | 31 | 140 | 680 | 35 | 46 | 22 | 231 | 290 | 326 | 616 | 95 | 320 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -17 | +0 | -10 | +3 | +11 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 188 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 232 | 291 | 331 | 622 | 98 | 321 | 29 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -22 | +0 | -14 | +4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 146 PAwOBA .313 → .257 (−56)K% 26.7% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.71% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.38% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.023 | ×0.982 | 24.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×0.982 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.62% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .313 → .257; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .337 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 67 PAwOBA .337 → .307 (−30)K% 13.4% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.43% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.48% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.08% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 28.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷0.889 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .307; ISO .129 → .127; BABIP .353 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 86 PAwOBA .356 → .315 (−40)K% 17.4% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.44% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.81% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.64% | ÷0.984 | ×0.930 | ×0.953 | ×1.018 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×1.018 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.953 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.964 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 6.01% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .356 → .315; ISO .230 → .204; BABIP .276 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABowie Baysox · 21 PAwOBA .209 → .168 (−40)K% 28.6% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.971 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 6.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .209 → .168; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .231 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABowie Baysox · 273 PAwOBA .335 → .295 (−40)K% 19.4% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.41% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.59% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.60% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 27.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.043 | ×0.860 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.950 | ×1.016 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .335 → .295; ISO .127 → .101; BABIP .351 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Frederick Keys · 180 PAwOBA .362 → .299 (−63)K% 22.2% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.993 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.56% | ÷1.010 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.04% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 31.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.914 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 8.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.238 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .362 → .299; ISO .103 → .083; BABIP .425 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Frederick Keys · 461 PAwOBA .299 → .237 (−62)K% 21.3% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.26% | ÷1.003 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.54% | ÷0.972 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.214 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.96% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 95, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .299 → .237; ISO .092 → .070; BABIP .321 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 401 PAwOBA .335 → .275 (−60)K% 20.9% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.95% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.97% | ÷1.009 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.84% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 27.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.81% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷0.964 | ×0.940 | ×1.036 | ×0.990 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.902 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 93, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .335 → .275; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .368 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .