Steve Selsky
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 27 | AAACIN | 339 | .280/.366/.459 | 9 | 2 | 90 | — | .237/.310/.382 | |
| 2016 | 27 | MLBCIN | 54 | .314/.340/.471 | 2 | 1 | 120 | -0.2 | ||
| 2017 | 28 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 322 | .215/.272/.360 | 11 | 1 | 34 | — | .175/.222/.281 | |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 322 | .260/.329/.429 | 10 | 1 | 64 | — | .210/.266/.351 | |
| 2019 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 127 | 106 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 416 | 585 | 1.001 | 274 | 342 | 19 | 13 | 429 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 307 | 267 | 93 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 26 | 62 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 348 | 426 | 618 | 1.044 | 270 | 402 | 20 | 8 | 447 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 246 | 228 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 49 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 281 | 325 | 395 | 720 | 114 | 343 | 20 | 5 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 99 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 181 | 284 | 205 | 489 | 24 | 234 | 20 | 10 | 230 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 394 | 340 | 101 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 37 | 79 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 297 | 390 | 497 | 887 | 200 | 352 | 20 | 9 | 392 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 145 | 121 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 361 | 339 | 700 | 99 | 378 | 32 | 14 | 323 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 205 | 166 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 42 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 301 | 420 | 367 | 787 | 66 | 383 | 20 | 14 | 358 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 202 | 180 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 317 | 388 | 428 | 816 | 111 | 407 | 22 | 9 | 366 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 54 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 314 | 340 | 471 | 810 | 157 | 519 | 41 | 4 | 352 | 120 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 339 | 296 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 280 | 366 | 459 | 826 | 179 | 343 | 22 | 9 | 365 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 322 | 297 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 97 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 272 | 360 | 632 | 145 | 277 | 30 | 6 | 282 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 300 | 268 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 265 | 337 | 448 | 784 | 183 | 335 | 26 | 9 | 345 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL | Aguilas de Mexicali | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 190 | 418 | 308 | 36 | 5 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 54 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 314 | 340 | 471 | 810 | 157 | 519 | 41 | 4 | 352 | 124 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 127 | 113 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 288 | 389 | 677 | 177 | 249 | 28 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 307 | 276 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 83 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 283 | 347 | 478 | 825 | 196 | 353 | 27 | 6 | 356 | 127 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 246 | 232 | 52 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 64 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 259 | 310 | 570 | 86 | 289 | 26 | 3 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 99 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 242 | 195 | 438 | 23 | 225 | 23 | 6 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 394 | 353 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 108 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 235 | 311 | 382 | 694 | 147 | 299 | 27 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 145 | 127 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 292 | 276 | 567 | 79 | 347 | 42 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 205 | 178 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 292 | 370 | 354 | 724 | 62 | 373 | 25 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 202 | 187 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 289 | 338 | 390 | 729 | 102 | 389 | 26 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 54 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 314 | 340 | 471 | 810 | 157 | 519 | 41 | 4 | 345 | 120 | +1 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 339 | 304 | 72 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 90 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 310 | 382 | 691 | 145 | 298 | 27 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 322 | 302 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 118 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 222 | 281 | 503 | 106 | 248 | 37 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 300 | 276 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 210 | 266 | 351 | 617 | 141 | 283 | 33 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 127 | 113 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 288 | 389 | 677 | 177 | 257 | 28 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 127 | 106 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 311 | 416 | 585 | 1.001 | 274 | 342 | 19 | 13 | 429 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 508 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 147 | 13 | 18 | 3 | 256 | 308 | 402 | 709 | 146 | 331 | 27 | 5 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 553 | 495 | 157 | 32 | 6 | 18 | 38 | 111 | 13 | 18 | 3 | 317 | 381 | 515 | 896 | 198 | 374 | 20 | 7 | 390 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 440 | 98 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 132 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 223 | 298 | 345 | 643 | 123 | 292 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 493 | 423 | 116 | 21 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 99 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 274 | 370 | 440 | 809 | 165 | 328 | 20 | 10 | 359 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 305 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 112 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 252 | 337 | 321 | 659 | 69 | 381 | 32 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 350 | 287 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 50 | 89 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 275 | 395 | 355 | 751 | 80 | 381 | 25 | 14 | 344 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 202 | 187 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 289 | 338 | 390 | 729 | 102 | 391 | 26 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 202 | 180 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 44 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 317 | 388 | 428 | 816 | 111 | 407 | 22 | 9 | 366 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 355 | 88 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 112 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 314 | 394 | 708 | 146 | 331 | 28 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 393 | 347 | 99 | 26 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 96 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 285 | 362 | 461 | 824 | 176 | 362 | 24 | 8 | 363 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 322 | 302 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 118 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 175 | 222 | 281 | 503 | 106 | 253 | 37 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 322 | 297 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 18 | 97 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 272 | 360 | 632 | 145 | 277 | 30 | 6 | 282 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 297 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 106 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 209 | 263 | 354 | 617 | 145 | 286 | 33 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 289 | 75 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 260 | 329 | 429 | 758 | 170 | 333 | 27 | 9 | 335 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 127 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 288 | 386 | 674 | 175 | 249 | 28 | 8 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 553 | 510 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 147 | 13 | 18 | 3 | 255 | 308 | 400 | 708 | 145 | 325 | 27 | 5 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 493 | 443 | 98 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 132 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 221 | 298 | 343 | 641 | 122 | 284 | 27 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 350 | 308 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 112 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 250 | 337 | 318 | 655 | 68 | 362 | 32 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 202 | 186 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 290 | 338 | 392 | 731 | 102 | 389 | 26 | 6 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 393 | 356 | 88 | 20 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 112 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 314 | 393 | 707 | 146 | 328 | 28 | 6 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 322 | 301 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 118 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 176 | 222 | 282 | 504 | 106 | 248 | 37 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 297 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 106 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 209 | 263 | 354 | 617 | 145 | 283 | 33 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 54 | 51 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 314 | 340 | 471 | 810 | 157 | 519 | 41 | 4 | 352 | 80 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 192 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 265 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 313 | 339 | 469 | 808 | 156 | 517 | 41 | 4 | 352 | 80 | +19 | +2 | -9 | -51 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2762 | 2507 | 586 | 108 | 15 | 59 | 165 | 815 | 59 | 40 | 18 | 234 | 297 | 359 | 656 | 126 | 318 | 30 | 6 | 286 | 80 | +2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 138 | 25 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 192 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 234 | 297 | 361 | 658 | 127 | 318 | 30 | 6 | 286 | 80 | +19 | +2 | -9 | -51 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAALouisville Bats · 300 PAwOBA .339 → .267 (−72)K% 26.3% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.33% | ÷0.962 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×0.968 | ×0.982 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.29% | ÷0.988 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 100, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .339 → .267; ISO .183 → .144; BABIP .335 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 322 PAwOBA .276 → .219 (−57)K% 30.1% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.12% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.59% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.50% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.15% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .276 → .219; ISO .145 → .104; BABIP .277 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 339 PAwOBA .359 → .301 (−58)K% 21.8% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.83% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.24% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.81% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 8.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 3.87% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .359 → .301; ISO .179 → .151; BABIP .343 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALouisville Bats · 202 PAwOBA .357 → .319 (−38)K% 21.8% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.78% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.91% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.62% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.021 | ×1.018 | 30.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×1.018 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.922 | ×0.970 | ×1.021 | ×1.018 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .357 → .319; ISO .111 → .101; BABIP .407 → .389. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 205 PAwOBA .355 → .327 (−28)K% 20.5% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.49% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.17% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.06% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 32.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.66% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .355 → .327; ISO .066 → .064; BABIP .383 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAALouisville Bats · 145 PAwOBA .318 → .252 (−66)K% 32.4% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.41% | ÷0.926 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.48% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.03% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 26.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.46% | ÷1.108 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.928 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .318 → .252; ISO .099 → .075; BABIP .378 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 394 PAwOBA .383 → .297 (−86)K% 20.1% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.05% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷1.101 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.81% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.52% | ÷0.991 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 21.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.28% | ÷1.034 | ×0.820 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.964 | ×0.760 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷1.107 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 4.09% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 93, K 95, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .383 → .297; ISO .200 → .153; BABIP .352 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 99 PAwOBA .223 → .206 (−17)K% 20.2% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.20% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 19.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .223 → .206; ISO .024 → .025; BABIP .234 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .